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Old 18-12-2016, 08:38 PM
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BankNifty or the Jungli Billi as named by @ap_pune on Twitter – is at a precarious position.

Attached is the Hourly Spot chart below. We can see a fractal or a repeating pattern but in mirror format with the last upmove and the 1st downmove each of 5 waves (of whatever limited wave knowledge I have – says reversal of trend unless crossed).

BankNifty is now on the edge of the table and if 18000 spot is taken, then, as @assortz coined the phrase, it’s gonna fall off the table.

BankNifty, on this chart is not tradeable on options at all. I would advise all options lovers to just ignore this medium/long term chart, as we can never time the moves. Yes, if one wants, one can go short around the top of the rectangle with a 18800 spot stop for less risky ppl and 19200 spot stop for aggressive/higher risk taking capacity people with a flip to long if stopped or keep rolling short position on moving lower.

View the chart in a bigger format by clicking here or on the chart itself.



The Nifty too has a somewhat same kind of formation and if it follows that – I personally am scared to think as to what would happen to individual stock prices.

Lets see how this plays out. Especially with a lot of data coming out – esp the Fed Rate Hike issue, Demonetisation effects of Indian Currency (from Jan 2017), Budget 2017 (1st Feb 2017) and many unforseen events inbetween, etc.



Disclaimer: I am not a Research Analyst and not registered with any regulating authority. All posts are for educational purpose only.

Link to my chhotu blog where I post my views - rarely - mood hua toh.


This was posted on 13th December 2016, and the chart has not been updated.
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  #15862 (permalink)  
Old 18-12-2016, 08:42 PM
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  #15863 (permalink)  
Old 18-12-2016, 09:04 PM
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Buy 1 share of SBI when market opens. Square off at 1525 hrs if it is in loss by then. Otherwise, take the delivery and hold it for 1 year.
Keep doing it until your Rs.40000 is exhausted.
You will learn lot of tricks by then. and your Rs.40000 is not exhausted.


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Old 19-12-2016, 12:00 AM
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demonetization bank ko hazam nehi huya 5000 points crash
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Disclaimer: I am not a Research Analyst and not registered with any regulating authority. All posts are for educational purpose only.

Consider us a dumb -dumble guy in this analysis, any type of real time example will be quick-learn approach.
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Old 19-12-2016, 12:13 AM
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Originally Posted by MurAtt View Post
Buy 1 share of SBI when market opens. Square off at 1525 hrs if it is in loss by then. Otherwise, take the delivery and hold it for 1 year.
Keep doing it until your Rs.40000 is exhausted.
You will learn lot of tricks by then. and your Rs.40000 is not exhausted.


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cost of time, emotions in trading,execution nuances, etc etc...i can go on, any way thanks for your suggestion, cheers mate.
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Old 19-12-2016, 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by MurAtt View Post
Buy 1 share of SBI when market opens. Square off at 1525 hrs if it is in loss by then. Otherwise, take the delivery and hold it for 1 year.
Keep doing it until your Rs.40000 is exhausted.
You will learn lot of tricks by then. and your Rs.40000 is not exhausted.


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Very interesting concept. Will get you into sbin at a very good price.

Of course this will work only with stocks that have a good long term view.

-- no1lives4ever
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  #15867 (permalink)  
Old 19-12-2016, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by MurAtt View Post
Buy 1 share of SBI when market opens. Square off at 1525 hrs if it is in loss by then. Otherwise, take the delivery and hold it for 1 year.
Keep doing it until your Rs.40000 is exhausted.
You will learn lot of tricks by then. and your Rs.40000 is not exhausted.


Views?

Concept is to create a trading dairy with charts. With buy sell of 1 SBIN share you will not face risk of ruin at the same time in one years period you will first hand learn support resistance, buying pressure/selling pressure, DS zone and almost basics of trading that is entry/exit. If you are not profitable with trading one share then there is no reason to think you will be profitable with bigger trade size.

Position sizing, trade management not included in above self learning tutorial.
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  #15868 (permalink)  
Old 19-12-2016, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by MurAtt View Post
Buy 1 share of SBI when market opens. Square off at 1525 hrs if it is in loss by then. Otherwise, take the delivery and hold it for 1 year.
Keep doing it until your Rs.40000 is exhausted.
You will learn lot of tricks by then. and your Rs.40000 is not exhausted.


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Originally Posted by maneverfix View Post
Concept is to create a trading dairy with charts. With buy sell of 1 SBIN share you will not face risk of ruin at the same time in one years period you will first hand learn support resistance, buying pressure/selling pressure, DS zone and almost basics of trading that is entry/exit. If you are not profitable with trading one share then there is no reason to think you will be profitable with bigger trade size.

Position sizing, trade management not included in above self learning tutorial.

Everything included. There are clear rules for entry, exit and position sizing.

1. Start with 40000 in capital.
2. Every day, buy only 1 share of sbin at open, not more and not less.
3. If the position is in a loss at 3:25pm, then sell it
4. If the position is not at a loss, then carry it forward and hold it for 1 year.
5. Reat steps 2, 3 & 4 till you have tied up all of your capital in sbin shares.

Basically this is a simple way of both keeping in touch with the market and getting a good entry into a stock that is expected to go up in the longer term..

When you do this with a stock that is priced around 265 today, you will have a min of 150 trading days in the market when you make an entry and an exit..

If you assume that market will close down on half the days and close up in other half, then you have more than a years worth of trading with this 40k capital and observation of market.

This would develop a few skills in the trader:
a. Consistency - You need to be at the terminal for market open and close. Tons of retail day traders are not able to do this simple thing on a highly consistent basis.
b. Market experience - 1 year worth of screen time with 1 stock, even on eod basis will be very useful to almost any trader. Unless you are doing this like a robot and not doing any market observations, you will be able to observe the basic market behavior in action for a very low fee.
c. If the year is a up trending one, you will end up with a good position in a good stock and have made some money.
e. If the year is sideways, you would then most likely have made some good money.
f. If the year is a strongly down trending one, you may end up with some sbin stock at higher prices, but you will still not end up with a blown account.

I would expect others to chip in their observations on this teaching point by MurAtt..

-- no1lives4ever
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  #15869 (permalink)  
Old 19-12-2016, 04:03 PM
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Originally Posted by no1lives4ever View Post

I would expect others to chip in their observations on this teaching point by MurAtt..

-- no1lives4ever

I got this on other forum - idea is not mine at all. I am just the messenger
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  #15870 (permalink)  
Old 19-12-2016, 06:31 PM
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Originally Posted by MurAtt View Post
I got this on other forum - idea is not mine at all. I am just the messenger

Candid indeed
Huge profits for you on the way for sure
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