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Old 25-07-2015, 06:43 AM
oilman5 oilman5 is offline
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4 matter we must know to understand market-
i) market cyclicity - greed/fear cycle
ii) economic cyclicity -demand-supply/production-economic growth, it is lagging the market cycle by around 6-9month
iii) political whimps/favours - nexus with big business house + funding institutions
iv) build up expectation factor/ trap creation by operator + media hype

u have to a little 1st hand knowledge in them,later by deciphering price u can understand it- while its happening.

then -TRADING SYSTEM THAT SUITS U.

a novice can not be a trader, maxm a tradelearner. Basic a novice thinks - an entry,exit, position size, stop trigger+ add on winner -makes a trader, entirely Wrong - a trader is more a synchronized person to EXECUTE WHAT TO DO WHEN AS PER SITUATION OF MARKET - VOLATILITY,UP/DOWN TREND ,SIDEWAYS CONDITION + APPLYING SECTOR ROTATION. Just see recent work of CV(jj)-mind boggling effort he has put to come that level.( once he stated - psychology -its nothing,he had achieved to that level)- and thats why he trades in leverage product option/future.

2 basic approach - swing or momentum , has to be dealt first in great detail , when swing occurs ,at which condition of market, - what type of money flow creates MOMENTUM.
How u have to change them ,as per volatility of present market.
Yes u have to create/play atleast 3 yr in small a/c , to decide u r not one trend wonder,
Comfort level to play big - no adrenalin rush .

A good trend trader is nothing but see big picture of continuity , when new trend starts.
A counter trend trader, understand limit/extended limit pt of the move -so take opposite -small position first ,then add at the proven sign of reversal.

Holygrail of trading = nothing but maintain serenity ,good risk manager, taking trade as per set up + market condition,+ skill to add on winner .
........................................
No 1 thing-psychology
..............................
First a learner should be guided by inquisitiveness , not by greed.
if greed is driving force to look at market, pl throw away that wrong notion first.
2nd
..... It takes time to learn . patience is a virtue.
if u dont have it , develop and practice it.
3rd
.......Do u understand the value of discipline and reading and syncronizing in life ?

if not spend some yr to do this.
here i find the root cause of failed trader,........they failed here.
4th
......
r u an independent personality ? Most learner may differ, its not an wish, but necessity .
BY simple term , u can consider/calculate other's contribution to your daily life monitorily and pay back it .
So u r +ive , not a liability.this concept i found exceptionally useful in trading ,all sorts of business and understand strategic thought process .
A leverage personality on the otherhand lives on mercy of others. ....good for service work , but a total NONO trade learner.

one has to cultivate this 4,....thats why behavior modification.

Soon other 2 factor......mother of any venture,......time management and knowledge comes.

now comes another exceptional quality PERSISTENCE......its unique in trading field, insistence to comeback for fighting for another day.
.............
Pros know when not to come back, when to accept challenge.......So av joe must realize that- Pro is superior , also know flexibility.

now as a new venture ......reqd balance confidence ,,,,,that is called for. To create this balance confidence.........we normally follow some back testing, what works in past.....those in advance stage , plan for FUTURE market condition , some prepares with action guideline , with hypothetical WHAT IF scenario .IN any case ur own personal trade experience....r also to be correlated , a good trader adds also EQUITY CURVE analysis.
[ some person calls it draw down /without money simulation test]

actually change of market condition always keep a trader on toes ........here a master fights against 2,.....other master traders and market.but novices has to fight on self,which system to choose,whether to take a trade, a dilemma to trigger stop - all r distractor of time.

any personal disturbance /other priority .......dont trade.
do u have ask anyone..............DONT TRADE.

another is transforming knowledge of other field's experience to trade arena.
I an ex-***** player ,prefer strategic thought.
while learning trading ,***** model helps......as it teaches unpredictability, skill of opponent[adversity]lucky if opponent accepts gambit/trap.........oppurtunity backed by price confirmation.
.........................
in learning from GM.............similar in trading, read Livermore,Gann,elliot wave as strategic guideline to market cycle with human relation,Larry william,great lady Linda.
STRATEGIC thought process development.......Van THARP,Dr Elder
Tactical planning ......WAY TO TRADE.....by John piper.
Tactical implemenation ....Joe Ross
Complex strategy..........dynamic trading
technofundamental trading ........Mark Boucher
...................
taking trade coaching.......tradingmarkets,com and online trading academy
those who love TA.....tony plummer 's analysis is extremely readable.
those who love psychology........Mark doglous.
..........
i personally feel .......any trader .....has to develop on volatility market concept in india.
as computer as essential.......is a good tool for scanning to find set up/condition to trade quickly.
btw........survival and obvjectivity if not,............no need to study......as trading itself is harmful for that person.
..........here KEY is concept build up.A hint .....read cfa book to understand fundamental
LISTEN to BSE course lecture........what they want to see in future.
ALSO sharpening ur skill , if u r a programmer , practice more programme for further objectivity.......for execution ........bigger size position.
also future long term skill to learn.......holding winner, add if possible.

PRO"S thought process
......................................
i see , but before entry i confirm by price.
i do consistently...........i am doing in last so many year.
i shall be not in market...........as situation is in unpredictable zone , even with my experience.
i have seen in 2 cycle of bull-bear-volatile market.........now first i can define present market context...........so its an oppurtunity.
losing trade is part of trade business,only i have to check in journal exit/entry rules followed.
i am a specialist in this market, in this type of trade.
regularity and health is also my priority........so i am a better trader.

...................................
the basic SWOT........must be done.........so if u have emotional urge , plus many a goody goody values /other priority..........pl dont try to come.
yes actually 99% above failure rate is here.Just understand why iimc placement boys r taken on av 40lakh salary.......to teach them in 3-4 yr, with may give return of 25-30% later.AND there 10% of them only get success. JUST understand filtering of them through JEE-CAT. u understand requirement.
a good trader is speedy -good analyst-forward looking-calm-objective + checks himself.
.........understand this is pre-requeste.
WAR is not a computer game,....u bleed here.......only blood is money.
the back ground writing at traderji...........a compilation clears essential requirement,tools very well.
read JJ .....wisdom dump & UASISH..........so MODEL is before u.
KNOWLEDGE ...behavior modification........fitting what works for me......fine tuning comes last.
u know probably..........active.......IIM produce good investor , as their professors r failed trader.
understand reality........street fighting......only be learnt at street , by fighting only.

understand difference of predictabiliy vs. speculative.......
for me anything of happening chance upto 59% ........is speculation.so NONO

upto 65%.....i can not distinguish.
but 65% and above.....it may happen...........a zone suitable for set up/candidate for trade........price confirmation .......follows actual trade.
many a speculative idea r winner.........but a missed trade also......many a trade candidate move southward............that is part of my system.....to hit stop.
probilistic analysis suggest ..........i have to live on reality.
.....................................
Quality: patience, persistence, self confidence,
Acquiring Correct Knowledge: what is market,use of multiple timeframe, understanding volatility, risk management
A typical trading software - its basic idea to develop objectivity to convert your understand of market into money opportunity
What is playable by ur comfort level: reversible, continuation or trend , buy low-sell high range maket.
SKILL building : watching nifty chart & your stock list chart daily, - developing price action study vis-a-vis NEWS based reaction.Use of leverage when ur strike rate > 50%,
Copying PRO, taking guidance of a MENTOR
Mechanically doing money /postion management
Define your EDGE.
Use of TRade journal and creating STOIC mind -
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
after seeing immensly indian market this i find useful as follows
1] some candlesticks like bear engulf/bull engulf, doji, hammer helps in short term price prediction
2] Understanding inverse $/inr with nifty helpful
3] MA shows some continuation bias in trend following scenario.
4]william% r helps me to understand reversal in sideways market.
5] Pivot , particularly breaking pivot, as well as gap move - helps to understand strength of momentum.

BEHAVIOR MODIFICATION- it takes time as its a transformation, psychology & money management -comes under it.
TA TOOLS R VERY EASY- STD BOOK explains well.
candle
line chart
momentum
up trend/down trend -side way market.
MA SLOPE FOR TREND,2ma to understand trend strength, overbought-oversold , divergence,aroon,william%r, wrb,high volume - momentum, gap to measure emotion.

ACTUALLY TRADING STARTS WITH FACTAL CONCEPT, MULTIPLE TIMEFRAME,understanding accumulation-distribution ,trap by media.
FUNDAMENTAL IS ACTUALLY a filter ,which to trade,and when to hold for long haul.
SOFTWARE CREATES OBJECTIVITY AND BETTER EXECUTION.
PROBLEM IS EMOTIONAL CONTROL . U MUST HAVE A PLAN BEFORE TO ENTER , AFTER EXIT HABIT OF WRITING TRADE JOURNAL- which will be studied once ina month ,to check ur improvement.
Confidence + competence ,help with fitment of a trader with a particular style and its syncronisation with market = successful trader

where u can guess the direction ,the direction = choice of your timeframe.Say after watching price/pattern ,u can tell within 15 min price shall move up. then u can be a 15 min. trader, if u can tell within 1hr -it shall move up , then u can be 1hr trader.If u can tell within 1day it shall move up, u can be 1 day trader, if within 1 week it will move up, then u be 1week short term trader. THIS IS A SKILL ,WITH PRACTICE IT COMES- until this u r novice. STOCKLIST = IN THE STOCKS WHERE IT CAN BE DONE BY U.
u may be right only 5o% time, thats ok- stop loss ,be ready to be hit for 50% time.

Without this also u can trade, using TREND FOLLOWING- MOMENTUM OR PULL BACK ENTRY ,with small target. SMALL TARGET AS i give space to understand from confirmation by price.
u have to search market opportunity , where nobody should disturb ,preferably EOD about 2 hr a day.
A good pro does about 4 hr- also live on present ,ie. take what is offered by market.
..........................................
Actual moneyflow may also to be seen $/inr relation,- if dollar value is increasing, nifty may go down is actually FII is selling . Similarly if FII r buying , dollar coming ,so rupee value should appreciate, -create NIFTY UPMOVE.

Fundamental analysis

accounting principle
profitability of a company
project execution skill
relevent law and compliance
product cost concept
valuation of business
principle of marketing
motivation principle to retain good employees
forecasting idea ,social fad and trend
macro economy and govt policy

EIC(economy-industry-company) model implementation

INVESTMENT PRINCIPLE
................................
how to utilise better return in future..........risk mitigation principle,valuation for a sector........which principle to be followed..........how demand/supply of product shift valuation ,
when to be contrarian.

What i understand........since i worked in power ministry.........i have basic understanding.......so its upstream and user.
as i have some knowledge on spl engg product....naturally on some engg equipment/ its supply chain.
since i work in project........naturally cement and steel comes........so comes project execution and consultant.
naturally ......gas / oil pipeline producers
some pharma and computer co...........basically CRAM concept
i like tourism and hotel......as its concept easy to understand.
since i trade , naturally stock broking company r my watchlist
Apart from that some monopolistic company.......and which i have seen some years ,i see.

i have poor understanding on export/import......here i lose,also in media sector........so i avoid them.

.................................
So equitymater and capitalmarket i study for fundamental. Once i gave a detail review on Pharma - to understand basic of a sector.
Somebody prefers various Model to find valuation ,based on FCF ,but do sensitivity test.

Remember : use money to leverage this valuation are prepared by academic,not TRADER.
Good undervalue = buying opportunity ,
All lose making when turns profit, takeover candidate= buying opportunity
TRADING & INVESTMENT R 2 DIFFERENT ASPECT, NEVER HOLD LOSS-NEVER BE AN INVESTRADER.

ANOTHER TOOL TO DO ANALYSIS -TA
.................................................. ....
A controversial topic, liked by novice trade learner. I tried to learn 1991-97,- from available literature /books -plotting manual close value on graph papers, understanding trend/trendline - Donald Casidy ,Magee written books. But later reading by PRING on market momentum/TA explained and Tony Plummer -psychology on TA actually gives me a jump.I still remember my game on 2000-2001 on Metastock as a toy
But only when i did a course from tradingmarkets dot com, famous trade mentors that time- i could understand what is what- as i have american market data, where they teach, i can see it in metastock (they used TS) - so patterns r easy to remember.
Another lucky break came, when i met accidentally Mr D Mahinder(father of Rahul Mahinder-Metastock data seller in India)- who shows what is possible, - a kolkata based vendor ,gave me how to learn Metastock hard copy-with syncronisation in indian market, who knows from ***** how to play new move, going to unchartered territory.
So theoritical knowledge , practical guide on how TA work , its application on indian market - a place to practice in Gujarat Dabba market -2002-03 hooked me EOD studied -intraday partime trader . On regular basis , i spend a good value on learning ,starting with
Sandeep Wagle -TA & mechanical trading, Hitendra Vasudeo -momentum trading, later with onlinetradingacademy(which then taught orderflow and 1-2-3 pattern ). Swing trade i shift to learn From a dvd course of Landry (2006) + candlestick from Steve Nison
My trading skill further improved when i could read trend-dynamics -a course which take about a yr & half.(So 2007 end ,and early quarter of 2008- i am a good discretionary trader- conceptually expressed many a thing in traderji.
Soon i try to put some idea for mechanically trading, using metaformula dot com,but failed.
Also learnt 2yr for financial market course from ITM,- which improve little bit of doing valuation personally- so useful for longer term trade. Spent 6month time to learn Elliott.
Further keeping up, bring me in touch with some good traders + 2010 onwards with OTA.

Also prepared some applied course for PROs, in trading aspect.

Some of its imp feature i may put now.

MOST IMP ASPECT OF TA IS DESIGNING A TRADE SYSTEM, not the analysis.

TA is really a vast subject , most of which is trash. Which may be useless for me, may be
very useful to U.
Stick to basic. STOPLOSS and position manage is more imp.

Break out is nothing but spl condition of continuation thrust.
REVERSAL .......another strong principle on trading
........................
governing guideline behind this principle to be understood.............and when they can shift to HIGHER TIMEFRAME.THIS i call mastery in trading.

SAY.....intraday profit......3%.........can i convert to swing , may get 8%.
SAY positional profit........20 % in month 1, can i convert to 6 month HOLD........50% return
Similarly........a quick fall of 4 % , must be stopped out,.......as otherwise it has potential big loss of 25% in a month.
Market is reflection of human mind,.........so chart should primarily to understand that,then at higher side,......whether continuation possible...if WHY.if not reversal......why ???
similarly at bottom cycle .......question what u see , then can it be a money making oppurtunity for me.
MEDIA hype has to be neutralised.......so see price volume....delivery
3elements r always present in market ,,,,,,,normal trading, speculation and big money flow.....u should have a method to segregate them.

variability of cyclicity ,time factor of completion of wave or ew........r itself variable ie. subject to market ........ie prediction can be easily proven WRONG by market........so they r not valid method of trading, but good to lecture & analysis.
........due to ur reactive nature, forward looking consideration , probabilistic scenario u can many a time WRONG in market..........so comes stop loss.
ENTRY set up has to be understood in the context of MARKET , sector rotation & moneyflow.........not vice versa.
CONCEPT of EXIT........is concept of maturity .......so it can be learnt with experience.

technical trading :
some signal generation is part of indicator's usefulness. but first decide what u shall do with that signal.
here is the question first..........indicator shall be used for mentioned purpose.
WHETHER TREND EXIST IN MARKET?
what is MY defn of uptrend.........what condition its no longer up trend?
similarly for down trend......remember down trend slope is steeper.
.............
if no trend , ITS VOLATILE OR TRADEZONE MARKET.........HOW I AM DEFINING THEM
for trade zone.......BUY at support philosophy should be used.

now u define momentum strength............volume accln is quite helpful ,volume spike study also to be seen .
any one ,maxm 2 momentum tools to be used.
next come UNDERSTANDING of distribution..........its a key tool. it can save u from bad decision easily.
.........................
sometime i also study DIVERGENCE for positional pick up.
at support strong spike ......i find very useful.
previously i use aroon for...........trendliness......but no more useful.
........................
FIB has its utiliy.......but for me no rational logic, may be a biasedness of trader.
i have some pattern biasness , but they r subjective.
random trading /fractal system ; its great to see theory of DR Bill William , and quantum trade software, principle of 3ma,allegator concept, behavior of natural tendency of price reversal at defined pivot........yes i made money out of that theory, but not as told,.....actully by confirmation through PRICE.
.....yes it is the best filter.........confirmation by price.
.................................................. ...............
so 3 force co exist in market...........trend, reversal tendency, fractal [random factor]...........u as an observer who is dormant NOW.....also who is favorite
HIGHER FRACTAL.......define as highly efficient market.
ur duty is who will rule soon ie. near future...........
if u believe in trendiness.........that occur around 4 month in indian market.......other 8 month NOT GOOD.

IGNORANCE is highest risk, MOOD swing next,OVERCONFIDENCE then.
..................................
basic thing .....2 approach......comparative and absolute.
in absolute u see a stock ,its state & behavior.......in respect to range/trend/break out/reversal.......suitable leading indicator may be used .
past study.......leftside analysis........helps to develop what may happen.
Next is comparative.......so how nifty behaving with other global index/then which sector of bse showing better strength.........preferably weekly trend .
then only outperformer of that sector.............here METASTOCK helps me ,as this comparative analysis can be done easily .
also basic scan for choosing stock can also be done.

for understanding trend aroon is very useful
for understanding range atr + price band is useful
for understanding thrust......volume accln/momentum very good.
for understanding reversal .......excessive + reversal candle like engulfing is sufficient.
........................................
for random style.......weekly pivot
for volatility play.........volatility comparison tool ..........pioneer work is done by director of tradingmarkets.......father of VIX tool
.............................
this is the right way to use ,........i am not talking of indicator specialist/ they know their tools and limitation........and have +ive expectency to earn from market by his system.
[+ive expectency= no of right trade x profit per trade - no of losing trade x lose per trade]
When looking at charts on a stock everybody is looking at what the big patterns
are… Obviously understanding what the big patterns mean is extremely
important. When I’m talking about patterns, I’m talking about things like double
tops and head and shoulders, Patterns are great because it’s a bigger picture but they’re made up of individual smaller components, which are the price points either through the day or if you are looking at a weekly chart, the weeklies.
What those individual components really do is point specifically to where the market sentiment is. And when you look at that sentiment over a sustained period of time, it gives you the trend from which you can then base your investment decisions
This is about being able to identify the overall trend based on the specific
sentiment as to where the buyers are at on a particular day. Are the buyers in
control of the day or is it the sellers that are in control?
Now you can’t have a buyer without a seller. The issue then becomes the
dynamic of price. If you’ve got two people, one is set on the sell side and one on
the buy side, and the seller is looking for say 100/- for that stock and the buyer
is only prepared to pay 98/-...
…the question is, will the buyer come up and pay 100/-or will the seller come
down and take 98/- Well that then depends on the dynamic within the stock,
the appetite for the buyer to really want that stock in that portfolio or the seller to
want out.
So let’s say you’re looking at the company that you’ve got a fairly bullish
expectation on, the buyer is more than likely to want to come and step up and
pay a little bit more.
Sellers are quite happy to sit back and wait ie not accept a lower price – and that sort of
dynamic then contributes to price actually moving up.
Once you understand that dynamic of what’s going on, the willingness of the
buyers to pay more / the willingness of the sellers not to accept less, you then have
a very, very good gauge on the sentiment on the individual price day.If sellers r willing to accept less value, with new sellers coming ……hammering the price down.
This allow you to make a more rational investment decision, which is based
on the actual momentum within the market.

learn to play in atleast 3 types of market.......trend UP /DOWN ; VOLATILE , SIDEWAYS market.........mixing of them can be learnt later.
use very simple indicator..........but master over it.understand......price variation can be reflected in them.......so that......by seeing change in Indicator........u can develop to predict Right side of chart.
MA- X simply suggest trendliness, momentum tools use for strength.......support/resistance breaking tells us about future of a stock.

In short term trade ,we search for bias ........bias for direction. imp is pivot.........pt of conflict.......known seller /buyer may take position to test market........based on their system.........actual system of earning is ........how bull/bear is losing battle ......so comes Oppurtunity........say yesterday,,.....upside conflict at Nifty 8280.......tells me many 3% probable upside trade exist , which has potential to go 8% ........they r to be taken.
Remember the flowers idea.........its the continuity ........breaking of higher pivot.......potential trade exists.
problem is in daystyle ........many may buy there,where as higher timeframe players r actually fading............so unless u know beforehand who may win..........mostly u shall in loser side,including self.
so u have to add some filter say simple 20dma with a some 1/2 hr price bar for continuation + volume accln filter..........u see winning trades r looking at u.

1]learn to use charts and technical indicators in a clear, simple and concise manner to improve your trade entries and exits
2]Further refine your ability to use S&R lines, trend lines, candlesticks, continuation patterns and more.
3]Learn how to truly understand and use Indicators for what they were designed
4]Learn how the new cutting edge TotalView.Fibonacci numbers and ratios point to specific turning points in the markets' movements. Learn how to use Retracement, Extension and Projection Analysis to maximize your profits and tightly control the losses.

Use of IMPACT TA ,including GAP + Understanding the Market from Economic Data Releases and Sectors Rotation will be done.
•Quantifying a supply and demand imbalance for opportunity
This shall be followed by Rule-Based Strategies for Trading
o Buying the Supply Breakout
o Buying at Demand Levels


In trading/trade learning structured approach is more imp.
1] some candlesticks like bear engulf/bull engulf, doji, hammer helps in short term price prediction
2] Understanding inverse $/inr with nifty helpful
3] MA shows some continuation bias in trend following scenario.
4]william% r helps me to understand reversal in sideways market.
5] Pivot , particularly breaking pivot, as well as gap move - helps to understand strength of momentum.
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  #32 (permalink)  
Old 25-07-2015, 06:50 AM
oilman5 oilman5 is offline
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No3 thing -TRADING SYSTEM THAT SUITS U
.................................................. ............
trading system is an implementation of trading business. business is more strategic, its tactical implementation is we r exploring, based on knowledge and experience.
A system implementation must controlled through trade-journal a closed loop to control impulsiveness in trading.
Trade journal is very imp tool for a trader.Trading & Analysis – Intraday, Swing & Position.......wherever u do , pl write in detail & read in weekend.
Personal Trading Plan will help you tackle one of the most challenging obstacles faced by new and experienced traders: how to develop a decisive trading plan. You’ll learn to develop an honest personality profile of yourself and tailor your trading plan to consider your skill level, risk tolerance and other important factors. Finally, you’ll learn to develop a consistent trading routine and review process of your trades.
learn:
• How to establish your business and Trading Goals
• Advanced Money Management strategies
• How to properly critique your own performance and adjust your trading plan on market condition.
Strategic aspect= let profit run/ exit loss early, also adaptive time frame concept and cyclicity of market.Time factor of completion of wave ,r itself variable ie. subject to market ...hence prediction can be easily proven WRONG by market.
forward looking consideration , probabilistic scenario u can many a time WRONG in market..........so comes stop loss.
ENTRY set up has to be understood in the context of MARKET , sector rotation & moneyflow.
development of a portfolio- a list of stock and condition to trade.

for advance level...........STATOR.......is a good trade management software
for metastock user JBL is ok, but u can make a template easily like that.

How to employ the most sophisticated and effective risk management
rules used by professional traders… with their focus solely on capital
preservation … the pros use risk management to prevent big loss.
I think that especially with beginners, risk management is not understood very
well and people don’t understand that you can greatly increase your returns by
having some definite risk management rules .
Just by having a stop loss in place, you’re limiting your downside risk before you
do anything else.
Once you’ve conditioned yourself to accept that you must use a stop loss as a
trader, the next step is to fashion a methodology for setting that level which is
the most appropriate level for either the kind of trading you’re doing or the
instrument that you’re trading or the approach that you’re taking in the market,
and so on.
For example, if you put your stop loss too tight, you will continually get stopped
out of profitable trades – where the stocks have just pulled back to pause or rest
for a couple of days and hit your stop loss level before it subsequently moved
back up.
It is very, very important to establish these levels where they will:
a) Do the job in terms of preserving your capital,
b) Will not be so tight as to see you disadvantaged, being stopped out early
of trades that have the potential to run on for even greater profits.
While some of the simple rules that we talk about are very simple, getting them
to be a habit and actually applying them with discipline every time you trade is
tough to implement. As You are battling against human nature. That fact only reinforces
why you have to manage your emotion out of trading in order to accurately and
diligently use your stop losses.
One of the first levels that we stop at might be below holding support.
If you have a stock that has been falling down, say it’s consolidated around about
100/- and it started to move up and you’re deciding to buy into the stock at say
102/-. Having your stop loss, below that 97/- level is really quite sensible
because 100/- being support several times, your expectation is the stock may
then come down and touch that 100/- level again.
If you put your stop right at 100/- above you are invariably going to get
stopped out. So instead of having at100/- just have it slightly below, maybe
97/- – just to give you a little bit of comfort and less likelihood of
getting accidentally stopped out.
Of course, the other way to look at this is if the stock does break down through
the holding support at 100/- consolidation has failed and the down trend is
continuing, in which case you’d want to get out. That’s just one methodology.
When you’re trading stocks that are perhaps a little bit more volatile or have
moved away from a level of support... one of the things I like to use is the ATR . Look at the last 10 or so trading days of price action. Once I’ve had a look at those last ten or so days, I identify the most volatile day – anywhere there was the largest trading range. Once I’ve identified that, I then take an arbitrary amount which say for argument is 80% of that trading range. If you had a day where the biggest trading range the stock traded in was 5/- 80% of that will be 4/-, so I’d put my stop loss 4/- below my entry.
Now whether use 80% of the trading range, 100% of the trading range, maybe
120% of the trading range or only 50% of it is almost irrelevant. The key thing is
to arrive at a level for your stop loss in a structured way where you have a
process. When the process is consistent. Then you’re going to get consistent
results.
So it’s not just a question of 80% of the biggest trading range of the last 10 days
– you could use 60% of the biggest trading range over the last 20 days, it
matters not. What matters is the process used to get there is consistent. Once
you have consistent process you will get consistent results – good or bad.
But at least you’ve got a degree of consistency from which you can then start to
work on and improve. Once you start to work on that, you can then fine tune
and improve the model and thus get increasingly better results.
One of the other rules for stop losses is what we call the 2% rule.
Traders universally regard the 2% rule as the golden rule. You never risk more
than 2% of your overall trading capital on any one trade. Let’s say you have
500,000/- to trade with, the most you’ll be prepared to lose on any one trade
would be 10,000/- (being 2% of 500,000).
When you start to look at three or four approaches to determining your stop loss
combined, you can then start to choose which level suits you best. You might
just use a fixed percentage stop loss, which a lot of people do when they’re first
starting out.
So to give an example, you might use a 5% stop loss, you’re not going to risk
any more than 5% on your trade, so if you’re buying into it, a 100/- stock that
means if the share price falls to 95/-, that’s where you’re going to be getting out
- that’s 5% less than your entry price – no emotion or doubt, just an exit out of
the trade.
Again, you’re arriving at that process in a fairly structured way, and that fixed
percentage rule is one of the more basic ways of approaching the market but it
still gives you a very good degree of consistency because you’re doing the same
thing every time you trade.
best way i can describe a trade system, which give consistent return........as a model simult display of a GM against av ***** player,.......its many time done in india, in big city.
Concept is famed player,GM plays against a lot ***** enthuastic 20.....50 ......100 in clock , normally 1st move WHITE,.......walk and give move.....and play simultaneously. HOW?
YES he has many yr preparation on that line.......with all known variation in brain , at least 15 move opening ,within a minute.2nd he has tremendous pattern recognisation capacity.In middle game he is tactically superior to all his opponent.Position understanding of his .......is far superb.When he walks before a board , he simply can concentrate posion at hand, find a superior move[dont waste for the best one]...move way to next board , play similarly,,,,,,,,and continue.HE may lose 1-2, 2-5 may be drawn,but most others r definitely WON by him. He concentrates against strong opponent , think and use end game knowledge .......play AS PER DEMAND OF SITUATION.
.........He never bother for a particular table move, just play .......best of his callibre ,coolly.
THIS is the way fund manager trade, ........as per position/time demands......single trade never distract..........he knows superiority of his system........knowledge,application,calmness.
basic clarity of a trader.....a model for job fitment......pentagonal peg and 5sided hole.

read Livermore,Gann,elliot wave as strategic guideline to market cycle with human relation,Larry william,great lady Linda.
STRATEGIC thought process development.......Van THARP,Dr Elder
Tactical planning ......WAY TO TRADE.....by John piper.
Tactical implemenation ....Joe Ross
Complex strategy..........dynamic trading
techno-fundamental trading ........Mark Boucher

BAND/range/zone is a concept useful ,also TREND/continuation. Next comes momentum thrust/break out........naturally if excess, reversal is expected.
Normal small price variation is random zone, quickly doing it with unpredictable nature we use the word "volatility'
this 4 [band/trend/momentum thrust/reversal] + 2 [random move/volatile]......are six thing only we deal,.......through chart.......we try to predict on right side. for a common trade learner last2 random/volatile........is to say smaller or bigger uncertainity.

Trading System :
The way to avoid this is to build a trading system or process. The consequence of
having a trading system or process is that it enables you to have a very black and
white, non-emotional approach to trading.
With the trading plan we have a series of check list. The first three or four are absolutely non-negotiable.
By having a series of questions within your trading plan, you are looking at each
individual component of the trade in an objective way. You arrive at either a yes
or no answer. Once you have four, five, yes or no answers in place, you’re then able to read that in a way that says yes, there is a trade here or no, there isn’t.
We’re talking about the trade set up, what your specific entry triggers may be to
get into the trade, the points of confirmation by price /volume that you are looking for.
When all those ducks line up u shoot……….thats you’ve got a trade.EXECUTE.
Whereas if you’re thinking emotionally and a stock is really running hard – and
you think you should get in now before it’s too late – that’s very much a random
approach to the market. As a consequence, you’re going to have much more
random results in the overall performance of your portfolio.
It then almost depends on what sort of mood you have… whereas
you should be working towards having consistent results day in and day out by
having a mechanical, very robust approach to picking your stocks irrespective of
your frame of mind. The check list system works regardless of how you are feeling. It will force you to get the facts out on the table and study them as objectively as possible.

Some other strategies include the use of leverage.
When you talk to people about leverage they often see it as quite scary and risky.
I counter that by saying not knowing what you’re trading is just as risky because
you’re going to get smashed in the market anyway.
By learning and having a fairly robust trading plan, all we’re doing then is
leveraging off our ability to pick stocks correctly.
Let’s just say for argument’s sake, 6 times out of 10, you know you’re going to
pick a winning trade that’s going to make you 15%. And 4 times out of 10,
you’re going to pick a bad trade that’s going to enable you to lose 5%.
On the basis that you’ve got good risk management on your downside with your
stop loss constraining any loss to 5%. But when you make money, you’re letting
your profits run quite hard. So why wouldn’t you introduce a factor of gearing?
Gearing with a margin loan,futures, option etc.
All you’re really doing is amplifying your upside, your downside you are
constraining to 5% still. So if you’re confident in taking the trade, why not gear
up and actually leverage off picking the right idea and really making some serious
money out of it.
Rather than make a 10,000/- out of the trade, if you’ve got ten times gearing, why
not make 100,000/- out of it. And then on the downside, okay, you could say that
your losses are also augmented but if they are preserved at 5% and your upside
is 15%, you’re going to come out ahead.
Again, it makes perfect sense if you have a process and if the process is objective
And constrains your risk and enables you to let your profits run.
And herein lies a problem. When you talk about trading, everybody says show
me the leverage……….. racy stuff that looks really interesting and there’s big zeroes on the end of everything and yeah, the percentage numbers are big.
But the work seems to be on learning how to pick the stocks and more
importantly, not just pick the stocks, but actually manage those positions through
good money management skills. That’s the area that’s not as rosy. It’s not as
exciting – but it is an area where the hard work needs to be done.
But what people fail to realize is without the work being done all you’re ready for a fall. And if you’re using leverage, an even bigger fall.
So first take the baby steps in terms of learning and to understand and read the charts
properly, how to overlay your fundamentals, how to pull that information together
into a robust, proven, unemotional, simple checklist, process orientated trading
plan that really anybody can follow.
If you can make money using that trading plan. Once you’ve got a comfort level whereby you actually have a belief level that the plan is working for you, then you can start to apply the leverage and that’s really where the reward comes in for the efforts that you put in.
Up trending “bullish” market: Long equities
Up trending “bullish” market: with price rise Long equities with leverage
Down trending “bearish” market: sell stock and Short futures.
sideways= stock sp play @ resistance and support

learn to play in atleast 3 types of market.......trend UP /DOWN ; VOLATILE , SIDEWAYS market.........mixing of them can be learnt later.
use very simple indicator..........but master over it.understand......price variation can be reflected in them.......so that......by seeing change in Indicator........u can develop to predict Right side of chart.
MA- X simply suggest trendliness, momentum tools use for strength.......support/resistance breaking tells us about future of a stock.
future of NIFTY and MONEYFLOW.......comes before everything.
effective risk management= where to put stop....../when not to play

Next -how far smoothly i can trade and can it be transferred to others.......or otherwise unique to self.
trading system cuts out sensitivity in trading and develop objective view.so price speaks where is opportunity ?-what may happen now- so simplify execution.......Next various scanner search /give u oppurtunity in real time,.......just like a sharp shooter fights against sword champion from a distance.......... SO WINNERS R EXPERIENCED ........mind it many extra night they r awoke to prepare THIS SYSTEM WORKABLE in market.

1] oppurtunity shall always come in market, play when it comes.
2] what suits you naturally ? bull/bear/volatility
3] time frame u have mastered .........its absolute imp.
4] What u think , u plan to execute........trend following OR trend reversal .....absolute must to earn consistently.
dont look back investment , if u plan to trade.

Trading system in tactical aspect
.............................................

Based on 1st hand experience on market, it takes about 3yr to finetune it.
trading offers great number of oppurtunity to pick.A position
may be oppurtunity or a trouble[loss]...nobody knows
while picking,what it shall be.TIME will unfold..whether
it is profit making one or take money out of you.

1st principle
..................ABC
A ACTIVATION ...TRADE ENTRY
B BELIEF .. if trade continue as wishes ok.
C CONSEQUENCE , If price turn opposite get out.


hence a system of timing must have
1. set up condition- set up should be repeatable ,workable in present market
,risk/reward >2 with higher probability of .7 of happening
2. entry
3. exit...profit target - predefined , may book early if market condition vary
4. exit ..contingency plan- immediately cut off loss.


Can be break down for as per DIFFERENT CONDITION OF MARKET
..................................................
1. RANGE BOUND MARKET PLAY PLAN
after bounce in support ..price just starts moving up.
or after long fall, weekly chart engulfing bull i use for entry
in rangebound market...willium%r at oversold zone good indicator
2. TREND MARKET PLAY PLAN

u have to define entry characteristic .
1. entry after break out over longterm resistance zone
2. sector starts moving up..stock has good rel strength comparison within sector.

3. MOMENTUM BASED INTRADAY BREAK OUT PLAY PLAN

its the directional bias...where most waiting watchers r ready to join.
price higher high break out concept.
market buying r coming...big volume r increasing

concept is use momentum ...act now.

another concept a trend started yesterday 3pm..hence further steam left.
scan at night for candidate.

without any news. on real time..sudden volume surge..price is also moving up.
ACT NOW
4. -MOMENTUM / AT TOP QUICK SHORT PLAN
this condition to be created by media..rumor of market shall go up ..vs pro have already sold..now some -divergence can be seen ...price slowly starts falling..now tv must speak again and again ..threat percept...more sell order coming in nifty future...NOW ONLY THE TIME for short...hence its a short term quick execution ..a bull market top trade ..with propaganda from media
otherwise harsh bad news....when most participant prefer to sit on cash[bulls r running away]
NOTE -hold ing portfolio creates a conflicting trade..better sell holding first.


Some other comments:You have to put indicators in context. They’re background information — never the primary reason for a trade
. the experience of the past few years has emphasized the value of disregarding all considerations except those which relate to price movement, volume and time. If one is endeavoring to realize profits from the principal swings in prices of stocks, it is my opinion that he should disregard fundamental as well as corporate statistics relating to the stocks in which he is trading, stick closely to a study of the action of the market and become deaf and blind to everything else.
to achieve success in speculation—through hard work, persistently hard work. If there is any easy money lying around, no one is going to try and give it to me—this I know. My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market. The stock market is the greatest, most complex puzzle ever invented, and it pays the biggest jackpot.
Look at reality. Futures trading is a competition. It is financial warfare. You are trading against thousands of smart, aggressive, extremely well-informed, very well financed, extensively experienced professionals.
key word is discipline and practicing their tool.
so from beginner u r moving on top...here u atleast know how to survive..irrespective of market u can run ur family by winning against other traders.
so u r developing trading philosophy...plan new arsenal...to fight better.
so in is trade universe.3terms i introduce...exhausive, exclusive and intersection ie. interrelation between 2 element.
EXHAUSIVE..U HAVE TO GO INTO DETAIL
EXCLUSIVE..NO RELATION EXISTS..INDEPENDENT ELEMENT
INRERSECTION;INTERRELATION BETWEEN 2 ELEMENT...INTERRELATIONSHIP BETN MARKET...INTERRELATIONSHIP BETN MANY COMPANY IN A PARTICULAR SECTOR.
exhausive gives micro view.

so before reaching to become a master...one goes through various way to question and answer this 3 element...[may be in different name].he knows how far he understands...his limit..so now practice on regular basis[system]

and follow it diligently[discipline]
HENCE THIS KEY WORDS I THINK IN THE LIGHT OF IMPLEMENTATION BY U.

In order to succeed at trading, you must have an edge. Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular price pattern or market behavior offers a level of predictability and a risk to reward ratio that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. Without it, one is just "playing" the market in order to have something to talk about on message boards. To get it, you have to know exactly what you're looking for and what to do with it once you've found it. This process is what the journal is all about.

The journal goes through several stages depending on where you are. Once you've decided where you want to concentrate your efforts (at this level, the journal may resemble a diary), then you begin the process of developing a system (or method, strategy, procedure, whatever you want to call it). Here the journal takes on a different character. Once you've developed a tentative/preliminary system, you begin testing/trading it, and the journal adopts a still different character.
Do you have any idea what sort of trading is most comfortable? Long or intermediate-term trading? Short-term trading? Day-trading? Trend-trading? Scalping? (Note here that a short-term trader, for example, does not become a long-term trader just because his stop was hit and he didn't sell; a long-term trader doesn't become a short-term trader because he chickened out and sold too soon. Each of these approaches are selected deliberately and for thoroughly-considered reasons.) How patient are you? How adventurous? Are you a leader or a follower (most people think they're leaders)?
The second step is to decide what you're going to trade and when you're going to trade it.
Have you yet found a time (5m, hourly, weekly) or tick (1t, 200t) or volume (1K, 100K) interval that gives you enough trading opportunities but also gives you enough time to think about what you're doing? If you want to limit your trading to the "morning", are you physically and psychologically prepared to trade all day? If not, can you shrug off whatever opportunities you may miss by limiting the amount of time you spend trading?

A system consists of (a) a set of rules that you use to select profitable positions and (b) a set of rules that you use to manage the trade once you're in it. (*Note: again, whether you call it a system, a method, a strategy, a plan, a scheme, an approach, a procedure -its immaterial ,most important is sitting down and doing it day 1-2-3 and daily.)
Therefore, begin by studying price movement in real time (or at the end of the day through "replay", if your charting program offers it). By "study", I mean to observe it with intent, not just read about it or listen to somebody talk about it. Note the conditions under which price rises, falls, drifts. Make every effort to avoid imposing your biases onto what you observe. You may see trading as a war, a competition, a game, or a puzzle.

Develop a set of preliminary hypotheses which exploit the profit opportunities presented by these movements, e.g. price began trending "here". Price broke out "there". Price reversed "there". What can I do to take advantage of that? What do I have to look for?
Carefully define the setup which implements this strategy, preferably using old charts (attempting to define the setup by studying realtime charts is inefficient since you don't yet know what it is that you're looking for). This is called "backtesting". All else flows from this. Unless you know what you're looking for, you cannot test it, much less screen for it. If you have not tested it, you have no idea of the probability of its success. With no idea of the probability of success, any trades made are essentially guesses.
Therefore, focus on the setup. One setup. Determine its characteristics. Define it so specifically and so thoroughly that you can recognize it without any doubt whatsoever in real time. Decide provisionally where best to enter, what the target ought to be, where the stop should be placed, and so on. Only after the setup is defined and tested (and it can't, ipso facto, be tested until it's been defined) can one even begin to think about trading it with real money, much less trading multiple setups. Attempting to shortcut this process merely expands the amount of time it will take to develop the necessary skills.
Forward-test what you have so far, again using old charts, preferably replaying them (if replay is not available to you, then scroll through them, bar by bar). In other words, "pre-test" the setup. Make whatever modifications are necessary to the setup, i.e., re-examine and re-define your strategy. Address risk management, trade management, money management in further detail. Determine the ratio of winning trades to losing trades (you will, of course, have to define "winner" and "loser", which is where risk management and trade management come in). Determine the ratio of profit to loss.
Trade the plan using real money in real time, spending only what is absolutely necessary on "tools" and trading the minimum number of shares, contracts, etc., allowable. If your plan is not consistently profitable, go back .however many steps are necessary to arrive at a potential solution. Recalculate your win rate and profit:loss ratio on a continuing basis.

* If your plan is consistently profitable in practice, increase your size to what is a comfortable level, maintaining a continuous loop of re-appraisal and re-evaluation. When things come unglued, back up as far as necessary to regain your footing.
record your justification for each and every trade. Record your thoughts before, during, and after the trade, written in real time* (your perception of what looks to you like a potential setup will change substantially after the “setup” resolves itself, and when you ask, later, “what the hell was I thinking?”, your record of your thoughts -- your "self-talk" -- will tell you, so that the next time, in real time, you’ll have a deeper and more rational perspective). This is more than just the reason for the trade.
At the end of the day, review your decisions. Did you make good trading decisions, i.e., did you follow your rules or not?And then you write down your detailed plan for the next day .
Each journal entry should include material about the markets and material about the trader – It is not unusual for traders to emphasize one at the expense of the other. The core concept I stress with traders is that of pattern recognition. Traders display patterns in their behaviors: some of these are positive; others interfere with profitability. Markets enact their patterns as well; it is the trader who can see these as they emerge and act quickly that has the best chance of long-term success. Including material about trading patterns and traders’ patterns makes the journal a learning tool about oneself and the markets
VISUALISE..A ***** player analyzing the board for the next move...
Trading as a Performance Activity.Humans choose when to take action and when to refrain; they can select various courses of action on different occasions and can invent new strategies when needed. performance is a function of the chosen actions of performers, the correctness of those choices, and the skill with which the actions are carried out. Activities that are performed well on a consistent basis require a high degree of skill. A lucky outcome is exception.There are individuals who can be identified as expert performers. With very rare exception, expert performers are ones who have developed their talents over time. Most expert performers undergo specialized training to cultivate their talents.

They require a specialized knowledge base. To perform well in a field, a person must master the information and skills specific to that field.
Trading, as a performance activity, has much in common with *****. It is competitive, requiring a high degree of concentration and strategy. It also features a limited number of actions that, in combination, create a large array of possible strategies and actions. This makes both activities easy to learn, but difficult to master. ***** can be played in lightning fashion, with very little time between moves, or it can allow players many minutes to plan moves—or even days (postal *****). Trading can also be conducted on a very short-term basis or can be planned and executed over hours or days. These similarities make ***** an excellent starting point for examining the performance dynamics of trading, especially since ***** is one of the performance fields most studied by researchers.A well-replicated finding in ***** research is that the memory processes of experts are different from those of non-experts. One intriguing set of studies took *****board arrangements from a past tournament games and briefly showed them to expert players and novices. Afterward, the expert ***** players were able to recall the positions of many more pieces than the novices. When the two groups were shown *****boards with randomly arranged pieces, however, their recall of the positions of the pieces was quite limited. The researchers’ conclusion was that experts do not have better memories than non-experts; rather, they have better memories for meaningful relationships among ***** pieces. Instead of remembering where each individual piece was on the board, the experts viewed the board as clusters of pieces and remembered these. When the board was randomly arranged, there were no meaningful clusters of pieces and the experts had no effective means for encoding their information.

How do expert ***** players gain this ability to perceive meaningful patterns among pieces? Because ***** players are given ratings based upon their tournament play, it is relatively easy to compare experts (masters and grandmasters) with less accomplished players. When a variety of factors are incorporated into multiple regression equations to predict ***** ratings, two stand out as highly significant:The number of books owned and The cumulative number of hours spent in practice correlation between the amount of time spent in practice and current performance ratings was .60
it is necessary to understand what ***** books are and how they are used. These texts typically break the game down into components (opening, endgame, defenses, etc.) and present historical games from tournaments, along with annotation from an expert author. Readers do not merely skim over these games; they learn specific opening or defensive sequences and then see how these were utilized in actual games. They recreate those games on their own boards and carefully play through the positions, so that they can see what the expert players saw. They also play through alternate sequences to observe where these might lead.

Interestingly, ***** experts do not have significantly more *****-playing experience than non-experts. Rather, a higher percentage of the experience of experts is spent in the systematic practice of various facets of the game. Non-experts tend to spend a higher proportion of their time in games against similarly-skilled opponents. This experience neither exposes the learner to the moves of experts, nor does it provide time for a careful review of moves, exploration of alternate lines, etc. In the Charness work, the correlation between solitary practice and ***** ratings is almost twice as high as the correlation between practice with others and ratings. This is because solitary practice with ***** books allows learners to obtain ***** knowledge in context. Instead of focusing on the moves of an opponent, learners encounter—again and again—those meaningful configurations of pieces that appear in the games of experts
Because of this, ***** students can create and play through almost any challenging situation imaginable, drawing upon the accumulated wisdom of experts. Trading possesses no such database. Trading books, unlike ***** texts, are not annotated compilations of the trading decisions of objectively rated experts. One cannot use trading books to recreate trading sessions or to systematically explore trading decisions and their alternatives.As a result, traders tend to spend little time in the systematic practice that is the single greatest predictor of ***** expertise.REMEMBER...In every performance field, the development and maintenance of expertise requires a high ratio of time spent in practice relative to time spent in actual performance.Athletes spend far more time working out, practicing, and scrimmaging than actually playing in competitive events.Only significant time spent in absorbing winning and losing ***** enables players to internalize the patterns of play that distinguish experts from non-experts. The trader who spends more time to learn,observe and practice..definitely is superior.The expert trader needs to be able to review and re-experience markets and systematically rehearse facets of trading performance: entering, managing, and exiting positions.Think of each trading session as a ***** game, and each game as a contest between two expert players named “Bull” and “Bear”. Every short-term swing in the market is a move by Bull or Bear that ultimately leads either to a victory for one of them or a draw. In tracking the moves of Bull and Bear, we can pause the match at any point and observe how each player exploits the weak moves of the other. With the aid of an electronic database that collates similar trading sessions, we can even explore how alternate moves by each side produce different outcomes. Moreover, we can play and replay the “games” (and their similar variants), seeing if our simulated trading decisions accurately reflect our reading of the strengths and weaknesses of the players’ positions.

How could we practice this?Programs that allow users to save and replay tick data are especially valuable, as this creates a library of trading sessions akin to the collections of ***** games found in books... general rules and advice do not turn ***** novices into experts, and there is no reason to believe they will advance the performance curve for traders. Knowledge and practice—and especially the direct experience of knowledge-in-practice—are the keys to the acquisition of expertise.so now we know why most socalled traders fail.. they have failed to structure their learning to facilitate expertise.
they fail to put systematic work into performance....HENCE LEARN DYNAMIC TRADING CONCEPT..AND IMPLEMENT IT.

So after a little doze on psychology ,MARKET ANALYSIS BY SENTIMENT INDICATOR/MONEYFLOW + FA + TA ,we r trying to amalgamate them with a concept called TRADEWHEEL.
trading wheel= understanding risk management, market uncertainity,ur price reading skill, position management,confidence, flexibility, Discipline & writing tradeplan before/writing trade journal after with reason of profit/loss book MAKES u a trader .
3rd element on trading - trading system for U , actually takes strength from other 2.
U factor has to be tackled by PMA - positive mental attitude to be practiced to become stressfree,- reading good quotes,exercising .
DISCIPLINE (OBEY COMMAND)-helps to follow risk management, keeping EFGH(ego-fear-greed-hope) out of trade.
Since futuristic model , depends on uncertainty - STATISTICS -representing data to get objectivity and otherpart PROBABILITY HAS TO UNDERSTOOD PRESENT CONTEXT -the time frame u trade.
where u can guess the direction ,the direction = choice of your timeframe.Say after watching price/pattern ,u can tell within 15 min price shall move up. then u can be a 15 min. trader, if u can tell within 1hr -it shall move up , then u can be 1hr trader.If u can tell within 1day it shall move up, u can be 1 day trader, if within 1 week it will move up, then u be 1week short term trader. THIS IS A SKILL ,WITH PRACTICE IT COMES- until this u r novice.
RISK/REWARD -SIMPLY PRICE TO ENTER- STOP PT/ 1ST TARGET U PLAN TO ACHIEVE WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY

NOW we do analyze EOD chart ,based on this, and keep a candidate to trade nextday, using CONFIRMATION BY PRICE ON MARKET i enter, if price confirmation is not there- simply i dont take the trade.
..................................................
Bull phase,bear play -sideways ,volatility all r part of market phase.Bull market/bear hug = trend game plan. Volatility special condition to play -entirely different skill is reqd.
Dont play in FOREX, but learn in simulation,use free seminar- it create an warrior out of u,to be a stock trader in indian market.
why i dont trade in forex? i am not comfortable that high Leverage,nor that small move, also since big fund can play easily against me. Moreover actual both the currency reflection is actually reflection of their economy where i am novice ( i only know indian economy)
Why i dont trade Commodity ? again leverage problem, sudden extra news flow may quickly change scenario. So only commodity i understand is crude oil- no metal,no agri product.
Why i trade stock? its my battle ground - year after year,like my childhood learning in indian market from 1991- i enjoyed,day in day out participated -fought courageously -lost a many won a little about 10 yr, So i know its every corner -upmarket ,down game, trap by broker, my foolish call taking/TA practicising/academic valuation , largecap- midcap, specific sector moving up/down - the lies from media.
The rules of the game, slowly fit with change in market condition.3 condition for market - trend -trend termination and reversal ,clarity of sector rotation -clarity on how traps r created , later syncronised with heavy dosing of study on trade-psychology.An opportunist to never die attitude, highest perseverance to learn , spending about 20% profit on learning-may have toll on health-but is survived by bless of ladyluck and early study on statistics.
- THROW OUT ALL GARBAGE ,FILTER ONLY THE ESSENTIAL -ENJOY TRADE.
odd enhancer = understanding risk & mitigating it by not participating when its high , also to understand high probability set up.
In banking system,also in project management they taught -dont put a wrong person, same like buying at NEW HIGH.btw - if u could visualise - 3yr up move ,the first 3month is not at all high,its the best buying opportunity.So reference timeframe is very imp for ur style of trading. Time again i have told , 2min maggie trader -profit is good to see by 15min trader,-a good observing pt for hr chart trader. Strength of hr chart is observing pt for normal swing trader. The higher timeframe trader has the luxury to see now what happened in DAY ,end of week basis- only to understand -shall the trend CONTINUE or its nothing but a random event. So how easily intra day high is braking helps us to follow swing trade,-So how easily 3day high is braking helps us to follow longer positional trade,-So how easily important resistance is braking helps us to follow longer investment style trade,-ESSENCE MULTI VARIATE TRADER.
a curve- bigger zone-suggest a play of small support /resistance for small swing, break of gives different opportunity for long haul(higher time frame)

Similarly in bigger time frame(3month) curve ,we play lower end for entry ,and upper for exit(short)
................................
This events' probability enhances with bollinger band/ imp MA line ,previous swing pt, also by FIB retrace value.
Only in new high/low this r NOT available, so u have trade on experience or divergence study.

Let us understand academic analysis of trading. In smaller timeframe, we always have equilibrium , which may vary by itself in price ,due to demand/supply driven by greed/fear and money power.
If this value showing a continuity , we can make profitable guidance.
so first this trend attitude in price, or its a random factor to be clairified by reading the price itself.
Next comes higher timeframe factal, so in Hr/DAY/WEEK chart with less emotion we make study ,the same theme on continuation or one day wonderer.

Also we know ,basic of a profit motive,must decide to book at higher price, so buy/sell is complete cycle- impulse then Reaction,direction & strength -both r variable,depending upon present market as perceived by participant.
So we have mean reversion theory-what goes up -must come down.
A value zone= equilibrium,+- sentiment ,upper sentiment -sell zone to book profit,lower sentiment=oversold -buy zone.
boillinger band is simplest form of it,preceded by HURST cycle.

In stock,as direct demand/supply ,is less variable than Result ,so there is method to find VALUATION . Mr Damodaran has done pioneer work on it ,and given free. FCFF model helps.
So in reality u can get a value,however abstract it may look ,but it will be a skeleton. Now u add SENTIMENT . U can get some rational value, now based on ur observation on market(now fear/greed/hope eye) - u know which low is valid low, and which High is reversal one.
Another factor -conditioning of market.
Up market-upday continuation
down market- downday continuation
Sideways- up down both have random occurance atleast by your eye, so nullify when its not up + when its Not down= sideways.
Based on these 3 condition , high pt for SELL or BUY at low itself vary . BUT an experience trader can tell ,with high probability .
In 2011 ,while preparing a course for appliedTA, and how to trade as PRO - i was shocked to the data - 70000 man power r for sell side (analyst who do give call u to buy,so Institution can sell)
Then i ask to who does BUY side REsearch?
Answer is only the Fund Manager himself.
He has actually a kothari of senior analysts ,from whom he takes feedback , but real pick up -valuation check ,assumption to economic surrounding done by himself. DEcision to Buy may be implemented by Professionally paid executioner,-who buy/sell without question maintaining confidentiality ,but gives him feedback postbuy scenario.
Yes they buy normally at imp support. The so called PMS fund managers only know some stock/sector and made money basically by luck.
A tremedous amount of study is required to know applied TA/FA ,but more difficult to learn stoicism ,and follow trading discipline.
Once u understand basic,slowly with experience things follow afterwards in right order.
Some thing pl Remember.
1] u require a basic knowledge -how market work(nor u expect to know)
2] an Edge where u guess before others right side in price,and manage to allow trade management by holding Winner,and selling losers early.
3] A time must be spend ,mainly non market hr, based on objective data.
4] Once opportunity generated ,u have to take it (maxm u may wait upto price confirmatuion)....No ifs/but exist in trading ,a decisive responsible person can only be a trader.
.................................................. ........

News trading

Many a year back ,i prepared and gave for professional - structure only i am mentioning .

1] news- which has >5% prfitability improvement or >10% EPS value increase. This has only price impact, others r irrelevent.
2] The explanation/justification published by MEDIA only hype to please individual intellectual = not news.
3] news at top(in price) = to get out by broker/fund managers(by providing tips in real sense to media persons). Time again ,opposite i have seen on comments by fund managers.
4] middle level fund handlers can talk anything to get few extra bucks.About 70000 (2011 data) analyst talk on reality to sell side to lure gullible newcomers in market(avoid TV channels)-If u get info from mass marketed media, definitely U R THE CRAB(may survive somedays) ROAMING AROUND,eaten by suitable hunters.
5] unexpected news has PRICE impact,creating harmonic wave with dumping effect. Some times people r slow to react, here lies opportunity for U.
6] Pl understand some times NEWS r implanted to trap .
7] Budget ,unexpected results r EVENT ,so tradable by experienced trader to make money based on expected reaction from public.U should have economic knowledge to decipher impact earlier ,the better.
Volatility is high ,when both bull/bear could not clearly understand whether this is favorable.
8] no impact by news= market already discounted, new participant r very less in number.
fundamental news , written on price chart ( weekly) , should make u a better news trader.For smaller swing/day trader- news create IMPULSE to trade by momentum.
9] NEWS trading is possible -only the persons with highest level mentally cool , but calculated fast the impact.Academics can not trade it. There r specialist event trader,like result calender/budget/election/rbi announcement,but dont trade on anticipation. Chart has no relation in news trade, if good =new money comes,if bad =dumping stock so price falls. Bhao Bhavwan Che- if its shown price is increasing so logically buying is correct action
10] Read correct data ,not cheap free info ,chances are they r published in vested interest.
.................................................. ..........
i personally feel ,from own experience ONE SHOULD STUDY MARKET CONDITION NOW mode(not past),decide what may happen NEAR FUTURE,- take position -TRADE MECHANICALLY WITH ENTRY /EXIT .....traders donot have to think whether the market is going up on short covering or any other reason,our job is to read the market correctly,position ourself to take full advantage of the move and take our profits when market tells us that the move is about to end or ended.....reasoning part we leave to the analysts.
What is Sector Rotation?


Detail is ton worthy writing ,only hints r given. (No fund manager tells it, as its their bread & butter)
1] Market up starts with banking sector.
2] Cement/steel - 1st sign of economic boom. followed by infra structure.
3] when transport works , infra structure ok- Power sector moves.
4] then starts consumerism - FMCG etc. Common people think of bull market .
5] official growth factor data publish - future looks bright . hotel/tourism moves.
6] With money flow automobile sales up- the sector moves up.
7] All looks good - service provider IT/pharma moves & shifts money as doller appreciated. So safe money starts to move out- dumping to fools.
8] money moves from stock to fixed/Gold etc .
9] Report some problems by media- common people understand , though some corrected - still continue slow price fall.
10] people understand recession/inflation - but broking is still ok( as short possible)- Pharma fund / FMCG in demand as defensive -all r dumped.

market condition trend UP or DOWN........use simple 2 MA cut ,5/20 very good
market condition TRADEZONE........use stockastic/%r
market condition volatile......USE EOD break out/ momentum scanner...... play for intra day.........dont worry on confirmed direction bias ..If u r not earning , then simply this market volatility/unpredictiveness DONT SUIT U.GET OUT FROM MARKET,join only at low volatility directional break.(i have studied/prepared about 2yr for this condition , in other market actual simulated past data , in a software OMNITRADER, where u can hide data of right side/predict bar by bar & can see /compare vs. price actual blossoming)
Scanner - pattern seach - volatilty study .........this r extra, basically confidence build up measure.


Role of media
.................................................. ...................................
Media normally we consider for INFO.............is basically a tool for marketing in finance industry.Normal gullible people dont understand abc of finance...........so get attracted by it on its AD,sometimes after being cheated ..........create bloc against it.
IN marketing technique...........interest has to be hyped also repeated.............after sometime,..........those who READ,..........may make believed by it......A powder can not change ur colour,a shampoo can make a little outshine to hair,.........all knows it,it is the food + natural color.........MORE IMP.
ALL CINE STARS,use wiggs /make up...........as per requirement of role,.............but fashion may be created.........by hype .........and young boys & girls(read NOVICE/FAN) may follow it ....Director/make up decides casting/role play.Role demand as fix....... make up, looking original. Similarly ur thorough knowledge on market may only TRAIN u to understand..........what is HYPE , by financial media.
Another case, not understanding NEWS...In normal news , is info of past considering current affairs, but in gossip.............of a company buy back, take over, a new product successfully tested.............now to be launched...ibasically NEWS.
So in rumor state.........if u could get,.........decipher it, based on your experience with higher chance of happening is REFER as NEWS,
Since stock market forward looking,..........thats why RESULT is meaningless,.........but forward guidance is NEWS.
Since operators /MF makes money out of new comers MISTAKE, heavily advertise before SELL......all things look excellent future..............READ forward earning of 3yr.
AND similarly when they BUY....suggest market is too risky,............U should WATCH and WAIT(they tell in media)......actually let me complete my buy)Many a times CEO also join in them by lure of making easy money ......and cycle goes on as if eternal truth.

So form part of system- around market top.....excessive hype by media,........ pl sell PORTFOLIO.
Businessline /Business std...........certain publish better economic report and ET sometimes write company sp RUMOR.
TV channels........r worst type,.............infact very easily opp. direction play is possible ,if u have RIGHT skill of execution.
Unfortunately in INDIA ,most technical analyst coming in MEDIA , are not passed CMT,(they r hype type- get paid for it) so ethics dont apply to them(quacks). We create hulla-bulla in media for........forgy DOCTORS/ pilots/food adultration...........but not against TA/media hype,.........and operators use them as per game plan.

Just for a thought
...........A stock in a persistent downtrend is providing a feedback signal that investors overlook when they go bargain hunting among stocks. The downward trend in price indicates that the majority of participants in that stock are voting negatively about the stock. They believe that the future financial performance of the company is, or will be, in decline.
Sophisticated investors are always looking to the future and their expectations about the fundamental performance of the company will shape their decisions to buy or sell the stock. The major holders of a stock and the other members of the inner circle know what the downtrend is forecasting. The members of the inner circle surrounding the market for the stock are more knowledgeable about the company and its financial performance and they are probably more sophisticated investors. The belief that the market is efficient and that all participants in that stock get the same information at the same time and correctly evaluate that information, just does not hold up in the real world. The sophisticated investor knows that the major trend of the stock price is very important. He tends to rely on the signals generated by the major trend of the stock price in the market. He is always alert for indications that the trend may be changing direction or strength.
It is especially important to consider how the financial media tends to reinforce the feedback loop. A stock that is going down in price will call forth explanations for the decline by the media because the media knows that their users want to know why the decline is taking place. These explanations may be delivered as established fact when they are nothing more than educated guesses.
Experience shows that downward price trends are usually more dramatic and volatile than the up trends. It is also true that both up trends and downtrends are the result of a random process. This does not diminish the value of watching the price trends of a stock. A stock’s price trend is actually a summation of the votes by buyers and sellers.
...........................
some q & A
q1] what shall be nifty closing tomorrow?
A- i dont know.
q2] what shall be nifty closing this week?
A- i dont know.
q3] what shall i buy today?
A- Anything that moves in a particular direction. Name of company unknown unless market opens.
q4] which sector i shall buy this week?
A- the sector which has shown positive bias on Monday. Not last week
q5] then why the hell i learn from u, when u dont know this basic answer?
ANSWER: I AM A TRADER , I DONT KNOW BEFORE MARKET OPEN, BUT WITHIN 15MIN OF OPENING BY DECIPHERING PRICE , I KNOW WHERE LIES OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONEY.
I HAVE NO BLOCK ,IF NIFTY SHOWS UPBIAS I TRADE IN HIGH BETA STOCK LONG. IF NIFTY SHOWS DOWNBIAS I TRADE IN HIGH BETA STOCK SHORT.IF NIFTY SHOWS NO BIAS, I CONCENTRATE TO FIND SWING CANDIDATE AT SUPPORT FOR LONG ENTRY.
DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH OF MARKET IN WEEKLY CHART , I SHOW U TO PLAY FOR 1000 OR 10000 SIZE, -WHEN NOT UNDERSTANDING/CLARITY IN MIND WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT , I SUGGEST NOT TO PLAY.

Most imp thing in market......its U. nobody else.
Question first What u want from Market,..........what u want in life.........
Next.........how much Priority u give to learn to trade....... initially it should be100%..
Slowly when baby trader is born....allow it to survive.........with min FRICTION with other part of LIFE/dream.Slowly it must grow as per your COMFORT level,
A routine schedule....to search for opportunity,.....a Time to relax, stress free....
......A time to write Tradelog.......analysis ..........Discipline to isolate u-the newborn trader..........from others .
To stop distraction.....use of shield must be practiced.
Actual trading ie. execution should be LESS ...Follow ACE...
Analyze .....Confirm by price.......Execute .......
Be independent.........that is natural structure in YOU,....its a solo game.
Be keen observent,.....react with deadly accuracy. Understand probability and least risk concept.
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OBJECTIVE SUBJECTIVITY IN TRADING
.................................................. ..
THERE R ONLY 2 SET UP IN TRADING -SWING & BREAKOUT(MOMENTUM)

SWING= BUY LOW SELL HIGH, BREAK OUT= BUY HIGH SELL HIGHER .
(sell high buy low for short, sell low later buy lower - similar with opposite premises,can be seen by flipping the chart)
SWING = AN PLAYING INSTRUMENT IN A PLAYGROUND ,WHERE A CHILD RIDES IN AIR . A SEVEN YR SITS , PRESSES LEG ON GROUND -TAKE THRUST AND MOVE TO AIR. IT HAS A LOWER PT NEAR GROUND AND HIGHER PT IN AIR ,FROM WHERE IT RETURNS AUTOMATICALLY. NOW THE CHILD PRESS AGAIN IN GROUND TO TAKE THRUST TO MOVE UP AGAIN.
SAME THING IN TRADING -MOVE FROM LOWER THRUST PIVOT.
LOWER PIVOT= SUPPORT, IMP GAP UP START PT

some toddlers are protected by parents , come on holiday . Papa arranges and tell toddlers hold tight the chain/side bar. Now gives push -baby moves up and enjoy the air .IT MOVES UP BY PAPA'S STRENGTH - BETTER ECONOMY ,BETTER COMPANY FUNDAMENTAL , BETTER GREED DRIVEN MONEY FLOW LIKE FII.
PROBLEM IS BABY ENJOYS THE RIDE - AND WANT TO DO THE SAME ON REGULAR BASIS ,EVEN BY SELF -WITHOUT REALISING ITS BY PAPA'S STRENGTH ENJOYED THE RIDE ON HOLIDAY.
CONDITION OF ECONOMY /MONEYFLOW FROM OUTSIDE CREATES THE FEEL GOOD- set up for break out - not always exist in market. One trend wonderer r loser at market top,without realising condition can change -economy /business has its cyclicity.
BREAK OUT IS PLAYABLE ON BETTER ECONOMIC FACTOR+ MONEYFLOW. if any one of non existent ,it is bound to fail.MEDIA creates hype so fund manager can made quick money ,with vested interest.SO IF U UNDERSTAND PROPER VALUE WITH A STD P/E ,U KNOW THE DUMPING PT. if u can read orderflow/greed - excellent money earning opportunity as u buy early and sell later.VALUATION WHICH IS RELATIVE , actually imp basis for breakout, this present value is not justified,because of new fundamental addition is prime reason for greed driven opportunity visualised by a lot of traders at the same time, a screen player advantageously encash it.
Once u understand the logic behind this 2 approach =swing and momentum , depending upon market condition ,u can use PULLBACK BUY IN UPTREND, OR A RETRACEMENT ENTRY IN REVERSAL.
if fear force is more a swing can go down to 2 yr low, but if holds - u know accumulation starts now.
YES A TYPICAL STRONG IMPULSE MOVE STARTS ONLY AFTER FLOAT IS CONTROLLED BY STRONG HAND, another way to look when downday occurs the sp. stock is not falling ,example RAJESH EXPORT.

BUT WHATEVER U DO , A STOPLOSS IS MUST FOR ANY STYLE OF TRADE AND DONT SELL EARLY A GOOD UPTREND STOCK (THE BABY MUST GET PAT WHO IS SELF RELIANT)

swing
.............
basically applied in sideways/range bound market. So use nifty to define range bound, at lower end of Nifty band , stocks which r showing upbias can be traded for LONG.
alternately- reversal bar at bottom/support =entry setup.
confirmation by price = entry tactics, below low of tail= stop
reward/risk and high probability always seen before + confidence(comes from practice)
Use of zig-zag or wave locator improve odd.
BREAK OUT STRATEGY (LONG)
............................
MUST BE IN UPTREND MARKET , SO A FILTER MUST BE THERE TO CONFIRM UPTREND CONTINUATION.
when from a tradezone price starts to move MARK up, pl join. MOMENTUM FILTER OR VOLUME IS KEY.
if momentum is losing stream= get out
So u understand consolidation, then be ready when CONSOLIDATION ABOUT TO END ,now join at start of trend. trend defined as higher high , higher low- so when price forming to break -new high , join.
Caution : dont join extended trend at TOP, instead wait for pullback, then in narrow range bar, at upside break JOIN.
yes u have to do daily market analysis EOD for nextday plan ,which sector showing new strength, where its over extended.New strength for long/over extended for short using
CV's list- then correlate with todays's market open- if expect to trade long, just do that.
If nifty showing Down tendency , just SHORT in over extended counter - this is how to use sector rotation.
Bear engulf at resistance =short setup.
...................................
market Sentiment
Market sentiment refers to the psychology of market participants, individually and collectively. This is complex topic and Market sentiment is often subjective, biased, ........, you can make a solid judgment about a stock's future growth prospects, and the future may even confirm your projections, but in the meantime the market may myopically dwell on a single piece of news that keeps the stock artificially high or low. And you can sometimes wait a long time in the hopes that other investors will notice the fundamentals.As senior traders we know - we are participating in a game of prediction what majority shall think. where they shall put money (though often they will be wrong)
So we have our own tools to play consistently in a particular timeframe where this guess/strike rate is about 60-80% right, use discipline to stick only in it.

Market sentiment is explored by behavioral finance. It starts with the assumption that markets are apparently not efficient much of the time, and this inefficiency can be explained by psychology and other social sciences. The idea of applying social science to finance was fully legitimized when Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist, won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics. Many of the ideas in behavioral finance confirm observable suspicions: that investors tend to overemphasize data that come easily to mind; that many investors react with greater pain to losses than with pleasure to equivalent gains; and that investors tend to persist in repeatable mistake.

Only Some investors/trader claim to be able to capitalize on the theory of behavioral finance and sentiment study and the majority, however is feedstock for former .

INVESTMENT SENTIMENT
“The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street term encompassing volatility and often used in measuring risk) but rather by the probability – the reasoned probability – of that investment causing its owner a loss of purchasing-power over his contemplated holding period. …Investment possibilities are both many and varied. There are three major categories…
a)Investments that are denominated in a given currency include money-market funds, bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, and other instruments. Most of these currency-based investments are thought of as ‘safe.’ In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets. Their beta may be zero, but their risk is huge. …Under today’s conditions…I do not like currency-based investments.
b)The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive – will pay more for them in the future. …The major asset in this category is gold
c)My own preference…is our third category: investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate. …I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three… More important, it will be by far the safest.”-Warren Buffet

Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for and overweight evidence that supports one's own position. This can be a major problem in trading, as it leads traders to become overconfident in their positions and stay in trades well after they should be abandoned. A simple example occurs when traders are in a position and then focus mainly on the indicators or market behavior that supports staying in the position.
In such instances, the stop loss for a position will not be a planned set of criteria. More likely, the stop loss will be pain: the position will only be abandoned when it becomes impossible to sustain a confirmation bias. Quite often, that point of pain will be an obvious point of disconfirmation, such as a break to new price highs or lows.
Trading with pain as a stop-loss is not only bad for the trading account; it makes it difficult to sustain a sense of confidence in one's work. It also leads to the kinds of frustration that can generate subsequent poor trading decisions.
Losing less is more important then winning more. it's a long process of becoming a winner from a loser and psychology plays a major role. losing less gives us more confidence while trading and therefore resulting in better decision making abilities WHILE carrying a position. if we are trading with higher risk during the process of becoming profitable, we will mostly beat ourselves before the market beats us. we can't trade in fear and to minimize the fear, we need to minimize the risk. we cannot get over our emotions just by asking ourselves to do it. we need to understand those factors that trigger these ' greed and fear
The longer I’ve been trading, the more humble I’ve been forced to become. I don’t consider
myself to be a great trader. Whenever I havebeen tempted to feel this way, I have been on
the brink of making a catastrophic trading mistake.
a trader has to fight in 3 place........self , other trader and ofcourse MARKET.
understand past suggests WHAT NOT TO BE DONE. but trading/investment really deals in future, So study on PROBABILITY ,SQC ,programming idea develops objectivity in u , strategic thought process,and psychologically cool sharp mind to decide under stress without damaging skill ......is requirement.
yes behavior modification takes 10yr+ to be flexible enough to do what NEED TO BE DONE NOW.
ANY FUND MANAGER TO WORK INDEPENDENTLY atleast takes 5+ yr,pl add his experienceof dual degree + execution skill learning and understanding marketing hype.
Nothing is irrational in the markets... Markets can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants....
Never ever blindly trust what people write in the forum's/ blogs/books..... Not alway's they are telling you what they really believe in and their real market perceptions...
Bottom line of your account is not determined by how well you can read the markets but how well you can trade them.
As traders, we cannot afford the luxury of wishing and hoping because it puts us in a passive relationship with the markets. When we wish and hope, we are shifting responsibility on to the markets for making something happen instead of confronting the conditions and doing something about it ourselves. If we find ourselves wishing and hoping, it is an excellent indication that we don't know what is going on and as a result need to get out of the markets.
....... the problem with amateurs, they only have half a plan, the easy half. They know how much of a profit they're willing to take, but they don't have the foggiest idea how much they're willing to lose. They're like deer in the headlights, they just freeze and wait to get run over. Their plan for a position that goes south is, "Please God, let me out of this and I'll never do it again, but that's bullshit, because if by chance the position turns around, they'll soon forget about God. They'll go back to thinking that they're geniuses, and they'll always do it again, which means that they're sure to get caught, and get caught bad.
What most people fail to understand is that while you're losing your money, you're also losing your objectivity. It's like being at the craps table in Vegas, and the fat bleached blonde in the sequined dress is rolling the dice, and you're losing, and you're determined that you're not going to let her beat you. What you've forgotten is that she doesn't care about you, she's just rolling the dice.
Whenever you have jealousy as an emotion, or greed, or envy, it distorts your judgment. The market's like the bleached blonde in Vegas, it doesn't care about you. That's why you have to put aside your ego and get out. If you have trouble doing that, as most people do, be like Odysseus: tie yourself to the mast with an automatic stop and take your emotions out of play.

Without specific, clear, and tested rules, speculators do not have any real chance of success.There is always the temptation in the stock market, after a period of success, to become careless or excessively ambitious.It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day—and you lose more than you should had .
And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out—too soon.
Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to.
The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts.
He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses TO DO IMPULSIVELY
-He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss,
-and hope that his profit may become a big profit
There are many successful approaches and techniques for managing risk. The real difficulty is finding one that works for you. It could be systematic or discretionary, but it needs to suit you in order to protect you from yourself, that is, from your natural biases and your predispositions to act in a self-sabotaging way.
The average trader focuses too much on big payoffs. This is a stock market mentality, i.e., buy it and ride it to the sky, or sell it before the crash. Trading is not about predicting and catching the "big" moves. This is "fantasy" trading. It is the "lottery" approach to trading which, in the end, pays off only for a very, very few. Trading is about "seeing" momentum and positioning with it, "seeing" trend and following it.
Most investors remember and learn from what has occurred in the recent past. Investors must realize that they must learn from periods that might extend beyond their own memory. Market cycles can last a long time, and people have too much at stake to make all the mistakes themselves, so they must learn from market history
In this business if you're good, you're right 6 times out of 10. You're never going to be right 9 times out of 10


TRADER’S THOUGHT
The average trader relies too much on feel, on intuition. The possibility that any one of us is a natural market genius is realistically somewhere between zero and none. Accept that you will never be a world class athlete, sing a perfect musical note, or find a theory beyond relativity; and neither will you ever reliably predict the future. But be aware that you can know the past and see the present.
Most traders and potential traders are looking for rules-based trading systems or approaches. Using rules to make money is, of course, incredibly appealing; however, such cut-and-dried rules are seldom accompanied by the most important rule - a rule to connect, manage, and harmonize all the other rules.
Every trader will be tested emotionally, mentally and monetarily to varying degrees in his career. Most times, it’ll be extremely unpleasant and you’d most likely want to quit right there and then. Only those who can endure this kind of hardship, learn from their mistakes and persevere on will make it.
Trading with confidence has to do with having a method which you have proved yourself, and which you know will win over time if you follow it consistently. That means being able to recognize the conditions which allow you to trade, and only trading when they are all present. This is comparatively easy with hindsight: when we're actually there, we can see when all the pieces fit. But beforehand, we don't know that all the pieces are going to fit
"It is very important to visualize the many ways in which the market may unfold, rather than trying to forcast or predict how it will unfold. With a market understanding, you can begin to visualize each possibility, and what each would indicate to you about the market and your position."
I'm sure there are highly profitable pros somewhere who trade wave patterns, moving averages, chart formations, and the like. In several years of working hands on with such traders, however, I have yet to meet one who uses these methods. The pros do, on the other hand, care very much about who is in the markets and why markets are moving. The principles provide a framework for making sense of market behavior, which then can be used to filter the setups provided by charts, cycles, and the like. The really good traders understand markets; they don't just predict them.
Don’t think about what the market’s going to do; you have absolutely no control over that. Think about what you’re going to do if it gets there. In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there’s nothing more for you to do. Focus instead on those things you want least to happen and on what your response will be.
A characteristic of a good trader is to be realistic and understand what comes from noise versus what comes from true data. Another is to understand whether you have done something stupid, or if you were too quick at judging yourself. Another characteristic of a good trader is being able to find an effective way to deal with his emotions, to set them aside.
Without the stabilizing effect of a theoretical framework of how the markets function - whether intuitive or logical built upon the trader's fascination with the inner workings and price movement - research, trading-plan development and trade execution will remain volatile.
Trading is 'teachable' but its definitely not something you can teach through seminar/lectures, there are just too many subtleties involved.
The main goal of each trade is to minimize risk rather than maximize profit. Positions are managed according to the market's behavior after we've made our trade. We can't really predict the outcome. For example, if we are trading on a test, we don't know if it will lead to a true reversal or just a consolidation pattern before further continuation of the preceding move. We are trying to achieve a "headstart" in the right direction together with a chance to put in a tight stop.
TRADING ON PRICE
We trade only price. We do not trade information. We do not trade knowledge (of the asset being traded). Nor do we trade computing power or expertise. We do not trade anything at all other than price: ie: the number. Therefore since the only factor that counts in this game is the price, it is only smart to focus all, or almost all, our attention on this number on the price and its movement; in other words, what the price has done in the past and is doing in the present. Approach the game/business of trading in this manner - an up down number game where the focus is on what the price does and not why - and you will be on the right path to succeed as a trader
You are trading against the wealthiest and most knowledgeable people and organizations in the world.Do not delude yourself, you cannot compete on their terms: information, knowledge, experience, staying power, and so on.Do not spend time and energy trying to figure out why a price moves.Focus all your attention and energy solely on what the price is doing.You are a trader. A trader does not get paid to understand or explain why something has happened. The question "why?" deals with the past. The question "what?" deals with the present and provides the best clues to the future. And never forget that you are trading "futures," not "pasts." Discovering the supposed "why" of a price move will provide you with little more than temporary intellectual comfort. Whereas observing and focusing on what the price has done and is doing will help you anticipate what the price will do in the future. Leave the intellectualizing to those paid for their words not their deeds, i.e., journalists and brokerage house analysts
The study of charts is not as some people claim, the mere identification of certain labeled patterns made by the actions of stocks. That sort of thing borders on the mechanical and does little to aid in the development of one's judgment. But when a student undertakes to read from his charts the purposes and objective of those who are responsible for a stock's action in the market, he is beginning to see, in a true light, the meaning of scientific stock speculation.
The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself.
In market ,its important to know how market functions,how price behaves,but more important is how u behave with price,adjustment of self with price movement prepares you a level in which u find opportunity.
Trading is very easy,if you follow price,and trade as per plan .Right trading is nearly impossible ,if allow your emotion or others opinion to enter into your trade.
There are no certainties in this investment world, and where there are no certainties, you should begin by understanding yourself.
Trading is not group activity.Be alone, with your own plan & line of action ,success awaits for U . A dependable personality can only shine for some days.Here r lakhs of trade learners in market,but successful technical traders can be counted in fingers (consistently about 5yrs make above 50% annual return)In trading,i have success in momentum trading, counter trend swing, as well as break out................all have particular condition to succeed.AND on different condition , all of them have FAILED...its the mastery of setup/market dynamics on a particular condition makes U a successful trader.......
Sit idle , in a small range market..........join in break out side ,in the 1st symptom of breaking price barrier.
The moment when a trader is able to change from the state of "understand the principle of probability" to the state of "thinking in probability mind set", he changes his world.
In market what is NOW, is all that is important – at least with regarding making decisions. If you can put aside what should be, what could be, what ought to be, what would have, could have, should have occurred, and just pay attention to what is actually happening, the act of paying attention transforms what is. The greatest action, the wisest, the best action that you can take in almost any situation is to stay with what is, instead of jumping to conclusions or trying to come up with conclusions.
Trading is simply a transfer of accounts from those who don’t know what they are doing into the accounts of those who do. The consistently profitable trader knows whether the person on the other side of their trade is a novice trader or a consistently profitable institution.
If the market or individual stock does not act according to one's primary analysis, the market itself is trying to tell the trader to change that analysis, or at least cut losses short and get out.
.................................................. ..........................................
"I always think market as war between two equally strong opponent Bulls & Bear(anyone can turn the table anytime, so don't be partial ). Although they have completely different characteristics. We have to thinking sensibly how market behavior is changing using these price action.

In bear markets, prices fall faster than they rise in bull markets. Down moves are sharper and rallies tend to be quicker than they are in bull markets. Due to that reasons market moves down much faster in corrections also than it moves up in rallies.
Now from the price action of last two days (along with other world markets) it is obvious that short momentum is shifting with bear. All near term support in smaller time frame charts like 30m is gone away(gave us enough big profits also ). So now it is time to look at daily(next is weekly ) chart for near term support for bulls(possible target for bears: ).
So, it is next possible boundary(doted thick blue line) where bulls have some strong ammunition to face bear.
From my experience, whenever such big fall occurs in short time(several support broken easily one by one), there is a chance of damage in short term trend, as daily & weekly charts starts affecting(if price is not reversed within few days). We have take care of this to make big profit, there is always chance of bigger profit in beginning of a trend change. That blue line can be next possible target for bears(next support for bulls).
.......now it is about Patterns using Sup/Resistance & Gap Trading Strategies.
Another important observation is 50% fibo retracement of last big move on daily charts almost coinciding with that gap up support. From tech analysis point, whenever multiple resistance/supports coincides at one point(it becomes critical), it can act as a magnet and can creates hollow zone below and above also.
.........................................
so the persons can understand trading is a search for opportunity.Its a paradoxical game
losing trade may appear any time.understand hot topic black swan.
concept of hunter and the hunted.-the basic of reward/ risk...when situation is out of hand.

hopefully have seen one 1bull-bear cycle..or as a pro 100% retracement and comeback.
Then trading is within comfort level.
philosophy of trade : market is war arena..ruthless fighter can only survive

: trading offers great no of oppurtunity to pick
.A position may be oppurtunity or a trouble[loss]...nobody knows while picking,what it shall be.TIME will unfold..whether it is profit making one or take money out of you.

corollary : do i know how to trade?if yes, how to do effectively
[trading performance]
specific method to be followed again and again[system]
system vs. individual psychology ----- TUNING

element : experience
market research and put data for validity
testing [ ofcourse u must have ability to test]
position management

if no system : poor trade result occurs with emotional trading.
when personal psychology not match with particular style
loss of oppurtunity[ missing oppurtunity due to fear]
wrong expectation

hence a system of timing must have
1. set up condition
2. entry
3. exit...profit target
4. risk analysis
5. exit ..contingency plan
.................................................. ..................
A mechanical trader easily can trade a setup - as he knows as per designed system certain loass making trade will occur at random,so he wont bother when it occurs , simply get out and await for next opportunity to come.
Discretionary trader on the contrary build up more confidence after Right trade,hesitate to book loss ,when the trade is turning wrong. similarly when make some consequitive loss ,hesitate to enter . Only + side of discreation is use sentiment analysis, so take adjust in position size ,but do execution mechanically.
(similarity like football/cricket match at own turf , -similarly u know some sector very well, strength of a company -when in moves - u can do better trade in new low/new high zone.)here JJ is doing excellent work on sector rotation ,how money is moving in/out - pl understand correlation - may check myfno also.

in actual trade learning arena different school of thought exists- going down from higher timeframe. i learnt this way.
take a trade and quickly (some day hold)book profit and loss.Since i made good money to regular basis to run family , i tried to improve further HOLDING TIME -SO tried logic of investment, BUT ON THEORY IT SHOWS BETTER PROFITABILITY but not actual. AS BEING A PRO -INVESTOR , PSYCHOLOGICAL MAKE UP LITTLE DIFFERENT . so correspondence *****,is difficult(i find 6hr play boring,1 hr best -05 hr ok)
though i play well 10 min clock set ok,its not so good .(maggie trade has its exhausion in mind )
BUT STRONG WELL THOUGHT MORNING TRADE IS VERY WELL RETURN WISE, ALSO VERY GOOD 1430 HR - INTRA DAY MOMENTUM SWING.
but similar btst not good,ALSO WHEN I PLAY WITH LONG HAUL FUND MANAGER'S GAME -LOGIC OF INVESTMENT THEME FALL AWAITS ,SUFFERING PORTFOLIO.
on the contrary keeping simple basic fundamental , using certain ta logic coupled with price action as unfolding HIT RATE IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH- SO I HAVE STICK TO THIS AS MY TRADING BUSINESS . as life is limited,so is capacity based on safe principle SWING VALID ACTION TO BE THERE TO RUN 30% ANNUAL RETURN(main fund allocation 60%).by increasing same set with option return treble to 90%.
SO OTHER GARBAGE LIKE PORTFOLIO LONGTERM FUNDAMENTAL ,I AM THROWING OUT AND concentrate on simple future ,fresh nifty opportunity + midcap logic green driven 20-30 day move trendtrade .
this to be taken only(discipline)
.................................
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Old 25-07-2015, 07:13 AM
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SUPERIORITY of advance learner;

nightly preparation and scanlist

WHAT IF scenario preparation ......and past trade analysis .......yes thats all.
morethan this is not useful
..................................
SPECIALIST TRADER
yes they just add sharpening /.practicing adopt mode if necessary.

some also prepare ......sector sp strategy/ and study fund rotation principle.
other imp aspect of PRO...........they dont search holygrail........its already with them, occasionally they lose, but they self tune again.
JUST looking back their journey to professional trading to success road......its matter of some tuning.......hey they have done that in past.........when situation was tougher.
MAXM HE NEEDS A CLOSE CELL TO THINK AGAIN IN MIND-MOVIE

another is transforming knowledge of other field's experience to trade arena.
..........here KEY is concept build up.A hint .....read cfa book to understand fundamental
LISTEN to BSE course lecture........what they want to see in future.
ALSO sharpening ur skill , if u r a programmer , practice more programme for further objectivity.......for execution ........bigger size position.
also future long term skill to learn.......holding winner, add if possible.
[stopped out i hate.....erasing plan to this type of blockade]

development of a portfolio. a list of stock. condition to trade,.......
how quickly u understand danger..........and get out quickly from bad trade

.................................
PRO"S thought process as i repeat daily before market
......................................
i see , but before entry i confirm by price.
i do consistently...........i am doing in last so many year.
i shall be not in market...........as situation is in unpredictable zone , even with my experience.
i have seen in 3 cycle of bull-bear-volatile market.........now first i can define present market context...........so its an opportunity.
losing trade is part of trade business,only i have to check in journal exit/entry rules followed.
i am a specialist in this market, in this type of trade.
regularity and health is also my priority........so i am a better trader
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Old 25-07-2015, 07:23 AM
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understand difference of predictabiliy vs. speculative.......
for me anything of happening chance upto 59% ........is speculation.so NONO

upto 65%.....i can not distinguish.
but 65% and above.....it may happen...........a zone suitable for set up/candidate for trade........price confirmation .......follows actual trade.
many a speculative idea r winner.........but a missed trade also......many a trade candidate move southward............that is part of my system.....to hit stop.
probabilistic analysis suggest ..........i have to live on reality

........................
my personal bias on stock
...................................
i have to choose stock based on what i know better.......
in India .......certain sector behave differenly with so called biasedness........as i M not from finance.........i dont play in bank share........[hey here opponent know better]
i definitely.........play in oilsector..........without....where i work.......as job related info weightage with me ........and buy/sell r to be intimated before/after.

now what i understand........since i worked in power ministry.........i have basic understanding.......so its upstream and user.
as i have some knowledge on spl engg product....naturally on some engg equipment/ its supply chain.
since i work in project........naturally cement and steel comes........so comes project execution and consultant.
naturally ......gas / oil pipeline producers
some pharma and computer co...........basically CRAM concept
i like tourism and hotel......as its concept easy to understand.
since i trade , naturally stock broking company r my watchlist
Apart from that some monopolistic company.......and which i had seen some years ,i see.
.............
i have poor understanding on export/import......here i lose,also in media sector........so i avoid them.
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Old 29-07-2015, 05:13 PM
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Simplest analysis starts with directional bias(what is present trend in a particular timeframe. MA is easiest, also smaller time pivot break HH-HL = uptrend.
Next comes whether Trend shall continue ?
Simply SEE momentum to understand continuation. Exhausion suggest trend continuation doubtful.
Studying HOW PRICE IS BEHAVING NEAR PIVOT ,BREAKING OR STALLING GIVES AN EXPERIENCED EYE SUFFICIENT HINT.
Counter trend believes at higher time frame IMP support/resistance , low intensity trend shall stall. NOW if sufficient counter force exists, whatever may be reason - opposite trend may also start. Before that there shall be a DISTRIBUTION. So without exception of rare V ,^ normally in absence of extra ordinary volume thrust -PRICE shall behave in wave nature.
So sideways must be a part of strategy to decision maker. Time to take pause for a move as well as fundflow to a particular sector , where u do objective analysis to search for directional bias in future.
Next analysis is what to do to prove my bias in direction is wrong. Here u fix a stop , the loss limit , assuming wrong trade is part of business.
Third is maturity to trade in trap. U all know TRADING is not baby's game, so be ready to tackle ur knee-jerk reaction. U r your hero -JAMES BOND, have to survive in long then comes profitable trade.
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Old 16-09-2015, 09:30 PM
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Originally Posted by vic84 View Post
There are many different ways to analyse trade but the way a trader analyse differ as it depends on the individuals experience.

Yes true. Trader can analyze/trade only with his own experience. And the level of experience is relative thing and makes the difference in performance. Trader 1 can not experience Trader 2's experience. Trader 1 can only reduce learning time from Trader 2's experience if Trader 2 express his experience. Otherwise every trader is one man army , every next trader is enemy.
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Originally Posted by devdas View Post
...... , every next trader is enemy.

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Old 26-04-2016, 11:56 AM
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Simplest analysis starts with directional bias(what is present trend in a particular timeframe. MA is easiest, also smaller time pivot break HH-HL = uptrend.
Next comes whether Trend shall continue ?

Now - we introduce pivot holding ,normally by pro. Who is on other side(considering a simple break out pt, many a time CROWD or new comer overcome pro's by money-aggressive buy strength, so its another 3bar ,defending the winning zone (i use hr bar ,it may be day for long term- u may choose 15 min ,u playing on 5min chart) -ITS HOLDING ,NO LOW IS BREAKING,SO NEW MONEY CROWD IS WINNING NOW,creating an obvious trend bias( its the ABSORPTION OF PROFESSIONAL SELL) next automatically pros take out sale order , allowing up to move in a overbought zone ,where they may plan to attack to slaughter , that may be another story . But after observation of winning by new player(crowd) - if bigfund joins ,then HUNTER WILL BE HUNTED.
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