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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 19-07-2016, 03:33 PM
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Many yr i have spent on learning TA, still i really laugh at those who teach comprehensive TA for 1 month .
A simple price action to a level of predictability take a GOOD amount time , to understand its repeatability. IN bridge terms , i see not to repeat cards in my first 25yr , yes also some times, but general feature/structure r mostly known to me ,atleast 80% of time after 45yr of playing. Similarly after 20 yr , i see many a occasional repeatative sequence in price , trap creation,- but still BREXIT is out of my scope.
Another imp observation in india- 52 week high bias.
Only media hype is clumsily played here( reader simply play against has 70% strike rate)- Since i know only indian market, i was shocked to see the novices talks on tv show(without even a CFA /CMT )
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Old 19-07-2016, 03:57 PM
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On TA front
........................
As pro- TA should be learnt on intermediate timeframe, for which it is actually built. Ideal 1month to 3 month- in daily chart.
Since novice prefers to use candle ,- its reversal significance ,as well as REJECTION in price to be seen. Concept to see it at MAKE OR BREAK PT, price will move decisively in which way.
Next tool for indicator- RSI to see strength, u may choose MACD or dual MA .
Trend strength - ADX (i prefer aroon)
For reversal entry in neutral zone ,i prefer W% r (raw stochastic)
If u believe in trend play ,MA is must .
New trend transition - structural trend starting (HL/HH)
For swing Style- support/resistance + bb holding
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Old 19-07-2016, 04:11 PM
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next TA research
................................
we all know , by conventional knowledge ,earning by TA not possible ( apart from selling tips, appearing in tv). So i am hinting some of the works/research i have done.
1] MA based- 5ma =weekly bias,20 MA = monthly bias, 50-54 MA quarterly bias, so sudden change in slope tells .............
2] Volatility is cyclic, so after certain sleeping , price will move when interest will come back, will be 1st seen in volume spike.
3] Break out is always possible to trade without news, cool move slope upwards.
4] x% trend line, zig-zag 3% /5 % r good confluence tool , for imp swing high/swing low validity, must be checked if coincided with monthly high/low. breaking of them r also suggest dynamic change in structure.
one nono rule: DONT TRADE BELOW 100/- STOCK NOR BELOW 1LAKH VOLUME ( THERE MANIPULATION IS HIGH),NOR LISTEN EVER TV ,FOR UR TRADE
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Old 19-07-2016, 04:18 PM
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one aspect on psychology
.....................................
what superiority u have, so that u will get money from market. It may be ur understanding on market, ur risk management skill, ur leverage skill, your finance sense, ur policy reading capacity & quickness to act.it may be your supreme Discipline.
Market is a costly place to learn - if u have nothing.
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Old 20-07-2016, 10:57 AM
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In trading business, to make money -u r basically handling NEAR Future, - what is going to happen in price, (its not target )- but DIRECTION. going up, going DN, staying there (sideways)- if u guess this with LOGIC, then comes NEXT factor - CAN IT happen with strong momentum?
So first u get -moving Up, then the possibility of happening this with STRONG MOMENTUM.
Now u know ur ability, - if ur this guessing of direction is RIGHT 40%, then u have to handle 60% loss trade (be ready of wrong moretimes). Next comes location ,so easily u can calculate risk/reward. So probability, risk/reward calculation & risk management r essential tools for trading.
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 20-07-2016, 11:20 AM
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Now we as human being may search LOGIC , or may deal EXPECTATION. Logic comes from understanding FUNDAMENTAL - reason behind GROWTH,CAPEX, Profitability.
Expectation normally handled with TA tool ( continuation or Trend) Simple slope study(trend line or Dynamic MA) - tells clearly - but problem lies with VALIDITY. A move is for 2 hr only- but ur expectation(blocked view of continuation for NEXT 2days) - will jeopardize ur trade to loss (as u r not in REALITY).
So also we must learn to GOVERN BY PRICE.
Shrewd trader use another tool- Sentimental analysis, which is at Present BULL/bear winning data . Someone uses its variation as contrarian . PE , advance/decline, put/call , new high/low -comes under this ( its a judgmental tool by shrewd player, novice handles it wrong).
Yes this much is analysis- problem is media hypes why /report - totally distorted picture. Pl understand ,if some one knows anything - he will do trading , PUT MONEY WHERE MOUTH IS. i see movies for thrill /entertainment, but Market is hardcore practicing area for me ( so i refuse to come to media, also given 80 hr courses on TA/advance TA in 2011 anonymously for general trade learner- voluntary service in those days)
yes KEEP IT SIMPLE - very imp, as trade learning is really difficult.
Once u choose, u have to clear , the rubbishes u created /seen in market. But remember MARKET is evolving , most efficient NOW. Easy days of 15 min momentum still see, but not 3 days directional continuity.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 20-07-2016, 11:37 AM
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Let me make a comment on Mechanical Trading
.................................................. ..................
Disclaimer : i am not mechanical trader.
Basic approach is repeatability , without mind as twiggier. So if Some MA X , takes signal take the trade, keeping stop.
Rsi showing strength, take the trade ,keeping stop.
BB coming to support,take the trade ,keeping stop.
Gap up strong move, when gap filled,take the trade ,keeping stop.
Bearish Engulf at Resistance,,take SHORT,keeping stop at particular high.
...........................................
All this can be traded easily ,as there is NO mental dilemma to trade, and all r protected by STOP. yes EXECUTION is key in trading , and after understanding of market, market participants' sentiment- if u develop mechanical system , u r normally supposed to get money , unless market condition changes.
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 20-07-2016, 04:50 PM
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unless market condition changes'- is prerequisite of a super trader . Follow trend until it bends at the End.
A long term trend normally dont change abruptly , its slow dn first, then divergence clearly seen in RSI (weekly chart ideal for trend study)- then the price change comes. So far normal expectation MARKET will FALL, it will move up slowly , until now- its a MAJOR BULL RUN - believed by Mass & media hype,- tipping pt of BEAR ATTACK.
In my past , so far i dont have expectation, fall is easy to SEE ,if i dont have block.
My whenever by news/ interpretation (apart from PRICE) - i see FALL, always proven wrong by Market, but Quick impulse of NIFTY 80 pt fall ,mostly given me RIGHT signal.
So without bias of news/noise -see weekly chart of NIFTY,- u can tell now it will reverse.Pl see Sentiment Analysis like advance/decline, when strong hand books profit- its distribution ,after that only FALL possible.
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