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Old 15-05-2015, 12:15 PM
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Default Macro Economics

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WPI for April 2015 further fell to -2.7% from -2.3% last month û deflation now persisting for six-consecutive months. Monthly price contraction continued for fuel and manufacturing, while it reversed for food articles. Drop in fuel inflation was ahead of our expectation as fuel price hike announced towards April-end will reflect in May inflation data. Core inflation remained stable at -0.4%. We maintain that WPI inflation will retain its deflationary trend until SeptemberÆ15. Also, we maintain our assumption of 50-75 bps further rate reduction by RBI in FY16 assuming normal monsoon and stable commodity prices.



WPI deflation progressed in April: WPI inflation for April 2015 stood at -2.7% (PC and consensus estimate: -2.2%) vs. -2.3% last month and 5.5% last year. On sequential basis, WPI contracted by a marginal 0.1% vs. 0.2% rise last month. Petrol and diesel price hike announced in April-end is not included in April monthÆs data, will reflect in May data. Primary article inflation inched higher while fuel and manufacturing inflation continued to contract. Core inflation fell to -0.4% yoy from -0.35% last month and 3.9% a year ago. WPI disinflation is expected to persist till Sep-15. Although RBI gives significant weightage to CPI while making monetary policy decisions, continuing WPI deflation (also led by weak demand) should not be fully ignored. We retain our assumption of 50-75bps repo rate cut in FY16 assuming normal monsoon and stable commodity prices.

received from a broking firm .
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Old 30-07-2015, 03:47 PM
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Huge hidden ocean under Xinjiang's Tarim basin larger than all Great Lakes combined

China is going to be another oil exporting country
http://www.scmp.com/tech/science-res...rger-all-great

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The chance of water under these deserts is high because the amount of carbon these “oceans” carried could reach a trillion tonnes, which matches the amount of “missing carbon” on the planet, according to Li's team's calculations.

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We were after carbon, not water,” he said.

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Old 30-07-2015, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Sunshine View Post
Huge hidden ocean under Xinjiang's Tarim basin larger than all Great Lakes combined

China is going to be another oil exporting country
http://www.scmp.com/tech/science-res...rger-all-great

Troll feed by their govt to jack up confidence. It's quite likely that the cost of extracting those oil resources far exceeds the market price. Besides, who cares about oil these days when the world is heading towards renewable energy?
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Old 30-07-2015, 07:05 PM
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Anyone think China is a bogus economy like I think?

Last edited by Vinay; 30-07-2015 at 07:09 PM.
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Old 30-07-2015, 07:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Vinay View Post
Anyone think China is a bogus economy like I think?

I don't think it's a bogus economy - they have definitely improved and done a wonderful job. Questions remain if their improvement model is sustainable given their levels of debt, fiscal imprudence, over capacity and a rapidly ageing population with worsening dependency ratio all compounded by the CCP having daddy issues.
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Old 30-07-2015, 07:50 PM
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I used to think the same about USSR. Their technology was much more advanced than China.
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Old 30-07-2015, 08:44 PM
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China has completed the 1st phase of investment led growth (Domestic) consumption led growth is still ahead (there maybe a hiatus in between) Growth rate will settle for a new 5-6% normal.
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Old 30-07-2015, 09:13 PM
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What ageing demographics?

China sets up first unmanned factory

Democracy in China more 'viable' now with no troublesome trade unions
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Old 30-07-2015, 09:49 PM
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Originally Posted by kkseal View Post
What ageing demographics?

China sets up first unmanned factory

Democracy in China more 'viable' now with no troublesome trade unions

It's not just about production but also consumption.
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Old 04-08-2015, 09:08 PM
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Back in April, we highlighted Beijing’s "massive debt problem", noting that as of last year, total debt in China amounted to some $28 trillion when you include government debt, corporate debt, and household borrowing.

As Bloomberg noted at the time - and as we’ve discussed extensively - Beijing is facing the virtually impossible task of trying to de-leverage and releverage at the same time.

"Various parts of the government don’t always seem to be working from the same playbook," Bloomberg observed, before quoting Credit Agricole’s Dariusz Kowalczyk who pointed out the "obvious contradiction between attempts to deleverage the economy and attempts to boost growth."

Indeed, there are times when the scale seems to tip in favor of deleveraging. For instance, Beijing has recently shown a willingness to tolerate defaults and the case of Baoding Tianwei Group Co even suggested that in some instances, state-affiliated companies may not receive immediate government support. Nevertheless, the abrupt 180 on LGVF financing and the transformation of the local government debt restructuring initiative into the Chinese version of LTROs betrays the extent to which China is still reluctant to deleverage its economy in the face of flagging growth.

Against that backdrop we bring you the following graphic from Bloomberg which breaks down China’s massive debt pile and shows the degree to which it’s grown over the past decade.




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...lion-debt-pile
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