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Old 03-10-2017, 06:03 PM
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eeky Absolute Decline In Jobs, Drop Sharpest In Last Three Years

According to the Labour Bureau’s Employment Unemployment Surveys, total employment in the country shrank by about 0.4 per cent annually between 2013-14 and 2015-16, a number which corresponds to 37.4 lakh people being unemployed.

There has been an absolute decline in employment – number of people with jobs – between 2013-14 and 2015-16, possibly for the first time since independence, a new study published in the EPW journal says. Three critical sources of jobs – construction, manufacturing and IT services – performed the worst, the paper by Vinoj Abraham of the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, said. The construction sector is India’s largest informal sector employer.

The author combined data sources from three flagship labour market surveys– The Labour Bureau’s Employment Unemployment Surveys (LB-EUS) the Quarterly Quick Employment Surveys (QES) and the Revised QES– for recent periods to show that while there has been an absolute drop in the unorganized sector, in the organized sector, the rate of growth of employment has tanked.

In a novel technique, the author uses both Labour Bureau’s Employment Unemployment Household Surveys and the Quarterly Employment Surveys of Enterprises to get “evidence” from both “supply and demand side”. While “demand side” is a term economist use to denote employers, supply side refers to job-seekers.

According to the Labour Bureau’s Employment Unemployment Surveys, total employment in the country shrank by about 0.4 per cent annually between 2013-14 and 2015-16 (going by the usual principal status criterion for those 15 years and above), a number which corresponds to 37.4 lakh people being unemployed. Usual principal status denotes a person who has been unemployed relatively for a longer period of time.

The study quotes the QES survey to state a “dismal picture of employment creation in India”. After the October quarter in 2011, in no quarter were more than 2 lakh people employed. According to labour ministry data, nearly 12 million Indians enter the workforce in India every year. In three of the 12 quarters during 2014 and 2016, the situation worsened due to an “absolute decline in employment”.

The study states that the decline in job creation has been worst in the past three years. In the two years between March 2010 and March 2012, employment in the select sectors rose by 18.15 lakh, while in the next two years between March 2012 to March 2014, employment creation slowed down to just 6.2 lakh. In the following 19 months from March 2014 to December 2015, employment creation further slowed down to 5.92 lakh.

Between March 2014 and December 2015, average monthly employment creation declined to 30,000 jobs. And between March–December 2015, the average employment creation fell to its worst levels: 8,000 jobs per month.

“Perhaps this is for the first time in independent India that we have an absolute decline in employment,” Abraham writes.

Abraham also takes into account the organised and unorganized sectors. He says that the picture which emerges is one “of an absolute decline of employment in India, with much of it probably in the unorganised sector, while the organised sector is seeing a sharp decline in the growth of employment.”

Abraham says India’s labour market is facing a “crisis” with the employment rate stagnating across almost all sectors. Indicators have worsened since mid-2014 and the “weakest among the working class are bearing the brunt of the employment decline,” the study said.

https://www.outlookindia.com/website...e-years/302513
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Old 09-10-2017, 12:54 PM
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Piyush Goyal says job losses is a good sign for economy, here's a reality check

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...campaign=cppst
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Old 09-10-2017, 07:39 PM
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with increasing population coupled with automation, no one can give jobs to all.
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Old 10-10-2017, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by avadhoot View Post
with increasing population coupled with automation, no one can give jobs to all.

Sanjay Gandhi's strategy needed
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Old 10-10-2017, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Sunshine View Post
Sanjay Gandhi's strategy needed

Nope!

Lure of lucre or sops or privileges etc shall work as a charm.

In a small town, DM announced a lucky draw for women who have undergone sterilization operation where first price was a Maruti car and to everyone's surprise, womenfolk came in numbers to get themselves sterilized.

some more steps could be:

(1) Sterilization after one girl child should ensure free education for the child (and Half fees if the child is boy) in any school. schools may adjust fees for others to keep their profits.

(2) curbs on pay commission reports. PC has again reestablished the charm of forgotten government jobs and as a result castes which considers themselves as upper one are begging for reservation.

there are many more steps but do govt. babus read IT forum ?
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Old 10-10-2017, 01:38 PM
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September commercial vehicles' sales rise fastest in 6 years, hint at economy rebound

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...campaign=cppst

seems slowdown is a temporary setback . We have search avenues for a new opportunity .
The youth sent out by the inefficient colleges for the past two decades would feel the heat more than those who studied at good colleges.
Education system should be revamped to include moral values , job sconing skills , research attitude etc...
Professors are to be evaluated in particular intervals and partly by students . Refresher courses for them are needed .
Obsolete must be thrown out w/o mercy , so that fear may put them to update their skills.
Lot of avenues remain unexplored. Still no medicine or cure available fof dengue fever.
Unemployment is a relative term .
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Last edited by Sunshine; 10-10-2017 at 01:48 PM.
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Old 10-10-2017, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Sunshine View Post
Piyush Goyal says job losses is a good sign for economy, here's a reality check

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...campaign=cppst

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Old 10-10-2017, 02:37 PM
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I have been getting tons of reports from traders in retail space about the lack of festive buying. This would hint at a major slowdown of the overall economy.

-- no1lives4ever
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Old 10-10-2017, 10:33 PM
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I too get similar reports . But they are simple pullbacks and not real slow down .
Peoples' false fear and panic about GST . Perhaps in many areas % of tax should be scaled down . Overall these are precautionary withdrawal of traders from holding huge inventory .

I met one of my relative , who is working in the povident fund office. After Modi arrived to power , they stopped making surplice check at factories. All filings are in e-filings .
No paper work . Voluntary declaration . But once evasion is found out huge penaties ..Now the collection of PF amount is better than olden days .
No spot visits unless a complaint is received .No new recruitment . Existing Inspectors sitting idle. No filling up once they retire.
Low level and Senior level appointments only .
This may be one of the reason for unemployment .But Industry slowdown is a myth and will be busted soon .
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Old 11-10-2017, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Sunshine View Post
I too get similar reports . But they are simple pullbacks and not real slow down .

The source of my reports are people running ecommerce sites, people supplying to ecommerce sites, people running small retail businesses and people working with sales and supply chain of retail products. These are all segments dealing with products that could be termed as discretionary spends. Every one of my sources has been reporting major lack of business during the current ongoing Diwali season. Maybe it is a temporary blip, but the numbers are pretty bad. Most of the reports say that the sales this year are in the 20-30% when compared to last year's diwali season. This to me is a major warning flag, because people cut down on their festival spending when they are not doing economically.

Originally Posted by Sunshine View Post
Peoples' false fear and panic about GST . Perhaps in many areas % of tax should be scaled down . Overall these are precautionary withdrawal of traders from holding huge inventory .

GST has been a major headache for me. I had a service tax registration and decided to go ahead with getting that migrated to GST.

With service tax, I had to just keep a shared google doc for all the invoices i raised, the invoice amount and tax amount and the client name. I would then pay the tax once a month or two months and my ca would file the return every quarter.

Now with GST, i firstly need to get my client's GSTIN and keep more details about the invoices. My CA said that if he had to continue with the arrangement, he would need to charge me more per return filed, since he had more work and also that he would be charging me 3 times as often, i.e. once a month vs once every 3 months. So I decided to explore the options of filing GST returns myself and decided to do that.

Now the GST idea is all nice, and for me it is not that much of a hassle as I raise at most 2 or 3 bills in a month. Most months have no bills. But till now I have not understood how the various GST returns really work. The portal says something, things dont work as expected and more importantly, no one knows how things are supposed to work.

I am fairly computer savvy and have a good understanding of how websites work. I have also worked on accounting software and erp systems, so I have a better than average understanding of how these things work. It took me 30-40 hours to figure out how to file nil returns and a lot of that time was wasted because the GST site was not working as expected. My CA was equally clueless.

Overall to me this is a great idea that has been rushed and over complicated things. They should have had a better plan for migration to GST. A lot more education on how things are different. A proper working website, one that has had a lot of testing and also good quality training. Instead we have a government that is only busy talking about the good things that GST will bring, while being totally blind to the issues.

This has caused a lot of headaches all round and many small businesses have actually had to reduce business just because of GST headaches.


Originally Posted by Sunshine View Post
I met one of my relative , who is working in the povident fund office. After Modi arrived to power , they stopped making surplice check at factories. All filings are in e-filings .
No paper work . Voluntary declaration . But once evasion is found out huge penaties ..Now the collection of PF amount is better than olden days .
No spot visits unless a complaint is received .No new recruitment . Existing Inspectors sitting idle. No filling up once they retire.
Low level and Senior level appointments only .
This may be one of the reason for unemployment .But Industry slowdown is a myth and will be busted soon .

I have an opposite story. Post the note ban, a friend got called by wealth tax officials and basically was point blank asked for a bribe. This was in the early days post note ban, when cash was at a premium. He had everything in order and the officer was just trying to hustle him for some money. Now this friend is extremely well connected and he had to use connections to get out of the bribe demand. Most other normal people would have paid up because the bribe demand was for a not too big amount, along the lines of "pay up this small amount or else we will bother you and just the cost of having your lawyer or ca deal with us will cost you 3-4x if we go in for a detailed investigation"

-- no1lives4ever
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