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Old 02-01-2014, 01:35 PM
nTupLe2 nTupLe2 is offline
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chatty Market over its taper fear; overweight on India: Nomura

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It was the word that spooked global markets in 2013, but according to Michael Kurtz, Chief Asia Equity Strategist at Nomura "taper" no longer holds the same dread it once did. Although, he agrees that taper talk will dominate investor sentiment in the near-term, he feels the markets are better prepared for Fed cutting down on its bond-buying programme. "We do not see tapering creating much panic in the market," he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview. Also read: CLSA sees Sensex at 23,500 by Dec; bullish on cyclicals Meanwhile, a narrowing current account deficit (CAD) has allowed the rupee to withstand the start of reduced bond purchases by the Federal Reserve, analysts say confidence is still low in an Indian economy suffering from low growth and high inflation. Nomura is overweight on India on anticipating reform-friendly politics and commodity price relief. Kurtz says India, which has historically traded at higher multiples, has the potential to grow in the range of 15.5-16.5 times. Analysts also warn India is still too dependant on foreign flows, and needs structural reforms beyond measures such as curbs on gold imports to have a more sustained impact on the current account. Indian equities feature among the worst-performing markets in the world this calendar year despite receiving the third-highest inflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs). Kurtz says it will be difficult for the economy to get the same quantum of flows as 2013. "We may see flows increasing to China if further reform steps are taken," he says. Below is the edited transcript of Kurtzís interview to CNBC-TV18. Q: So far, most markets are not too perturbed by the sort of QE tapering and it hasnít impacted the sentiment especially in the market like India but how are you looking at a market like India as we start off the year? A: This tapering issue is clearly going to be on everyoneís mind in the weeks ahead. But it will be very different from the summer of 2013. Back in late May when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made the speech before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee where he first pointed to the potential for an imminent tapering exercise, markets were caught by surprise. We saw some very rapid position changing in markets and of course US treasury yields rose by about 135 bps in the short space of about three months. We have now had seven months to prepare for this process. Markets are not nearly as flat -footed now as they were back in Q2 and as a result we donít think there is going to be news of panic as we saw over the summer. India, however, still does stand out as more vulnerable in relative terms given that it has a very large current account deficit (CAD) and fiscal deficit, but they are probably going to be some factors that may help offset that in the first half of the year, commodity prices falling, local politics arguably militating in favour of markets and so on. Q: While the markets have not reacted negatively to the taper start, yet we are going to see USD 10 billion less of dollars getting printed with each of passing month as well we will see the bond yields sticking that much higher, it is already above 3 percent for the 10-year US treasuries, so should we prepare for an FII equity and debt outflow maybe a quarter from now? A: I think that we may find as has often been the case historically. What is bad for bonds i.e. higher bond yields can be good for equities and I can see this from two different advantage points. The first would be that higher bond yields historically do tend to mean more growth or more inflation albeit let us keep in mind that inflation at the corporate level can mean pricing power and therefore margin and profit. So, higher bond yields tell us basically that the global growth recovery is picking up momentum and that is positive for corporate earnings and therefore positive for equities. Secondly, if money is coming out of fixed income, that still is money that needs to find a new asset class to park itself into. In a world in which growth and inflation are picking up, it would make sense that those funds would arguably flow into the more growth and more inflation sensitive asset class that is equities. So, I am not inclined to believe right now that some upside in treasury yields as the Fed proceeds with tapering is necessarily going to be a negative episode for the equity markets. Q: What would be the valuation levels that you will be comfortable with, you have called us against the grain overweight, what would be the valuation levels that you will be comfortable on or Nifty levels? A: India has historically traded at relatively high P/E multiples from an Asian region wide perspective. So, I think we need to be prepared for Indian multiples potentially to move into sort of the 15.5-16.5 times P/E range over the course of the year. Much of that, of course, is going to depend on how rapidly market optimism on potential changes in domestic policy and domestic politics moves versus how quickly the earning forecasts themselves move. In Indiaís case, rather uniquely within Asia, we think that perhaps more of the market story could be driven by multiple expansion in the first part of the year whereas the earnings outlook maybe a little bit slower to catch up. The reason for this is very simply that we are not particularly optimistic on Indian gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the very near-term. Indian GDP remains structurally held back by some relative difficulty. We may see some positive surprise on earnings, it will probably be at the bottomline as India does benefit from some flow-through from either lower energy prices or lower commodity prices internationally. We will be watching for that positive surprises as well in the Indian corporate results in the quarters ahead.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii...ce=ref_article

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii...html?topnews=1
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Old 05-01-2014, 09:56 PM
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I found another piece of news that will fit this thread. The title is Woman who killed a cockroach

Dada J P Vaswani narrates a story to bring out the power of humility and the futility of ego.

There was a woman who lived a pure and holy life. She woke up every morning at the break of dawn and spent a few hours in meditation and prayer. She thought of herself as a pure, gentle, humble and holy soul, free from all vice. She felt that she was better than others because she prayed at the sacred hour of brahm mahurat.

Early, one morning, when it was still dark, she got out of her bed and went to the bathroom. She accidentally stepped on a cockroach, crushing it to death. This put the woman in a dilemma. She thought that her life was so pure and perfect, that she had never sinned and now she was responsible for the death of a cockroach! So perturbed was she that she could not meditate that morning. She tried hard to concentrate, to control her mind, to chant the name of the Divine but her mind was restless.

She went back to the bathroom, picked up the dead cockroach, covered it with a piece of paper and threw it out of the house. While throwing out the dead creature, she saw a woman sweeping the road. The sweeper woman was careful while sweeping, so as not to harm the ants that were crawling. However, it was her job after all, to sweep the road clean, and while doing her job, many ants and insects were being killed.

Seeing this, the woman shouted at the sweeper, "Everyday you commit so many sins, have you ever thought about it?"

Hearing this, the sweeper replied, "Sister, I do not wish to harm or kill these ants, but I cannot help it. It is my job to sweep the road and in the process many ants and insects die. That's why while sweeping, I pray in my heart: 'My faults are as many as the drops of water in an ocean. Have mercy, O Lord, shower Your grace and save this drowning one.' I pray to God for forgiveness, for I know He is all forgiveness. By His grace, He can wipe away all my sins."

The surprised woman was not convinced. She said: "You've committed so many sins and still you are not worried. I have killed just one cockroach and I feel so miserable."

The sweeper said, "O sister, why are you so disturbed? You can give me the dead cockroach and I will bear the sin of killing it. I will put it in my garbage bin. I take the responsibility of the death of the cockroach, give me the burden of that sin and go and attend to your work, free of all guilt."

The other woman accepted this proposal happily. She picked up the dead cockroach and put it in the garbage bin of the sweeper. And she went back home light-hearted, happy that she was free of all guilt.

As fate would have it, that very night, death took both the women away. The woman who thought she was pure and holy was taken to hell and the sweeper went to heaven. The woman who was sent to hell had a strong ego. Indignant, she protested: "I am pure, I have committed no sin, I used to wake up early and worshipped God. I gave money in charity too."

Such thoughts are egocentric. Being egocentric is a vice. There is no sin greater than being egoistic ó pampering, flattering your ego, giving importance to the 'i'. Similarly, there is no greater gift than the grace of God and His mercy. God's grace can purify the mind and the heart in a moment.

The sweeper woman was humble. She prayed in her heart for God's forgiveness as she swept the streets. People looked down upon her because she was a sweeper, but the angels thought otherwise. They thought her fit for heaven as she was free of ego.

sadhuvaswani.org

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/l...w/11683489.cms
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Old 05-01-2014, 10:37 PM
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Nice fable, dear, this one should hv been posted in a stand alone thread instead of being linked to anything.I propose you start a thread of your own to put these gems in there.
Be blessed buddy.
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Old 06-01-2014, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by NT View Post
Nice fable, dear, this one should hv been posted in a stand alone thread instead of being linked to anything.I propose you start a thread of your own to put these gems in there.
Be blessed buddy.

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Old 08-01-2014, 04:30 PM
nTupLe2 nTupLe2 is offline
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he is watching he will be back in 2-3 days



But he will fall in trap which will be made by clever bull.


Last edited by nTupLe2; 08-01-2014 at 04:34 PM.
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Old 10-01-2014, 11:47 AM
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This is polar bear who never leaves his region.
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Old 19-01-2014, 05:19 PM
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Hi

This bear was in trap.
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Old 26-01-2014, 01:31 AM
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Stronger the WHY, easier the HOW
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Old 27-01-2014, 09:36 AM
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