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Old 14-01-2015, 01:50 PM
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Default Turbine and Glenmark

HI

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Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
Rs915
Current market price
Rs782

 

Price target revised up to Rs915
upgraded to Buy 

 

 

Key points 

    Gearing up
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals is stepping ahead to gain from its key novel molecules and generic products pipeline built over the past few years in the USEurope and the Latin American market. While the Q2FY2015 results already reflected a bounce back in Latin American (up 139%) and European business (up 25%), the US business is likely to crack the stagnation with a fresh wave of approvals nearing and its first-to-file (FTFopportunity on genetic Zetia (market size $1.3 billionticking in Q4FY2017.
    
Near-term upside from GRC 17536The company is said to be in advance stage of talks with a few multinational players to out-licence its novel molecule GRC 17536which has successfully completed phase-II clinical trials on 138 patients in Europe and IndiaGRC 17536 is expected to have a market potential worth $1 billionA successful out-licencing deal would earn the company a sizeable amount of upfront paymentdevelopmental milestone based payments and royalties on salesWe expect the out-licencing deal to close in the next few months.
    
We revise price target up to Rs915upgraded to BuyWe anticipate an increased run rate of product approvals in the US market over FY2016-17 and a decent upside from monetisation of novel molecule GRC 17536 (though not factored in our price target as the out-licencing deals remain under negotiation stage). We revise our price target up by 13to Rs915 which includes Rs860 for base business (16x FY2017 core EPS), Rs55 for its R&D pipeline and Rs10 for its exclusivity opportunity on generic ZetiaWe upgrade our recommendation to Buy on the stock

 

 

Triveni Turbines
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
Rs128
Current market price
Rs106

 

Overseas business continues to be growth driver 

 

 

Key points 

    Opening of service centres abroad would boost overseas business
Triveni Turbine Ltd (TTLhas seen a strong ramp-up in its export order book (which formed 60of the consolidated order book at the end of Q2FY2015in the past few quarters aided by a good demand from renewable and waste heat recovery projectsAccordinglythe contribution of exports to the total revenues has gone up from the past level of 20-22to 30in Q2FY2015 and is likely to touch 60in the coming two to three quartersIn order to effectively service the current orders and capture new business opportunitiesthe company is planning to open a few service centres by forming an international subsidiary in the near futureWe feel this is also a good strategy to capture the high-margin after-market segment where the company is already a leader in the domestic market.
    
Export order booking looks promisinglull in domestic market continuesIn our recent interactionthe company indicated that the finalisation of orders in the domestic market is yet to pick up while the export order inflow remained robust during the quarterThe management also indicated that the impact of foreign currency fluctuation is likely to be limited in the quarterly results as the company follows a 100back-to-back hedging policy.
    
Q3FY2015 expected to be a good quarterThe execution of overseas order book is likely to pick up in Q3FY2015resulting in a 10year-on-year growth in the stand-alone revenuesHoweverthe real growth is likely to come from its GE venturewhich is likely to turn around in H2FY2015 (the company reports only the stand-alone quarterly results). The operating profit margin is likely to remain healthy at 22-23on the back of its after-market segment where the company enjoys healthy margins as high as 40% (the business accounted for 10of the outstanding order book in Q2FY2015).
    
Maintain positive outlook and price targetWe remain positive on its strong competitive positioningrobust order backlog and healthy balance sheet (it is a debt-free company with superior return ratios). What sets TTL apart from its domestic peers is that the company has partly derisked its business model from the slowdown in the domestic capital expenditure by increasing its exposure to overseas markets and the after-market segmentThe company continues to look attractive on the valuation front at 16.5x FY2017E earnings per shareconsidering the expectation of a compounded annual growth rate of 39in its earnings over FY2014-17. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a price target of Rs128
Any view
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thx
nTuple

Disclaimer: I am not a Research Analyst and not registered with any regulating authority. All posts are for educational purpose only.

Consider us a dumb -dumble guy in this analysis, any type of real time example will be quick-learn approach.

Last edited by nTP; 14-01-2015 at 02:33 PM.
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Old 14-01-2015, 05:02 PM
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Recommendations usually happen when trends are already in place and peaking.
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Old 14-01-2015, 06:50 PM
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To earn from such recommendations you have to estimate approx value of glenmark and triveni turbine and see if they are trading below that value. If it does then buy else
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Old 15-01-2015, 02:14 PM
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Though, any successful drug for curing diabetic neuropathy holds a huge potential but for that there should be favorable test research (on patients).


I could not find any study results here.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01556152

so far, Glenmark is claiming results to be succeessful and without any CNS side effects. Phase 2b dose range finding study is scheduled to happen at the end of this financial year.
So far, pre-clinical trials and phase 1 enabling studies are through.
So, better to
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Old 17-10-2015, 09:37 PM
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Originally Posted by nTuple View Post
HI

PHP Code:


Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
Rs915
Current market price
Rs782

 

Price target revised up to Rs915
upgraded to Buy 

 

 

Key points 

    Gearing up
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals is stepping ahead to gain from its key novel molecules and generic products pipeline built over the past few years in the USEurope and the Latin American market. While the Q2FY2015 results already reflected a bounce back in Latin American (up 139%) and European business (up 25%), the US business is likely to crack the stagnation with a fresh wave of approvals nearing and its first-to-file (FTFopportunity on genetic Zetia (market size $1.3 billionticking in Q4FY2017.
    
Near-term upside from GRC 17536The company is said to be in advance stage of talks with a few multinational players to out-licence its novel molecule GRC 17536which has successfully completed phase-II clinical trials on 138 patients in Europe and IndiaGRC 17536 is expected to have a market potential worth $1 billionA successful out-licencing deal would earn the company a sizeable amount of upfront paymentdevelopmental milestone based payments and royalties on salesWe expect the out-licencing deal to close in the next few months.
    
We revise price target up to Rs915upgraded to BuyWe anticipate an increased run rate of product approvals in the US market over FY2016-17 and a decent upside from monetisation of novel molecule GRC 17536 (though not factored in our price target as the out-licencing deals remain under negotiation stage). We revise our price target up by 13to Rs915 which includes Rs860 for base business (16x FY2017 core EPS), Rs55 for its R&D pipeline and Rs10 for its exclusivity opportunity on generic ZetiaWe upgrade our recommendation to Buy on the stock

 

 

Triveni Turbines
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
Rs128
Current market price
Rs106

 

Overseas business continues to be growth driver 

 

 

Key points 

    Opening of service centres abroad would boost overseas business
Triveni Turbine Ltd (TTLhas seen a strong ramp-up in its export order book (which formed 60of the consolidated order book at the end of Q2FY2015in the past few quarters aided by a good demand from renewable and waste heat recovery projectsAccordinglythe contribution of exports to the total revenues has gone up from the past level of 20-22to 30in Q2FY2015 and is likely to touch 60in the coming two to three quartersIn order to effectively service the current orders and capture new business opportunitiesthe company is planning to open a few service centres by forming an international subsidiary in the near futureWe feel this is also a good strategy to capture the high-margin after-market segment where the company is already a leader in the domestic market.
    
Export order booking looks promisinglull in domestic market continuesIn our recent interactionthe company indicated that the finalisation of orders in the domestic market is yet to pick up while the export order inflow remained robust during the quarterThe management also indicated that the impact of foreign currency fluctuation is likely to be limited in the quarterly results as the company follows a 100back-to-back hedging policy.
    
Q3FY2015 expected to be a good quarterThe execution of overseas order book is likely to pick up in Q3FY2015resulting in a 10year-on-year growth in the stand-alone revenuesHoweverthe real growth is likely to come from its GE venturewhich is likely to turn around in H2FY2015 (the company reports only the stand-alone quarterly results). The operating profit margin is likely to remain healthy at 22-23on the back of its after-market segment where the company enjoys healthy margins as high as 40% (the business accounted for 10of the outstanding order book in Q2FY2015).
    
Maintain positive outlook and price targetWe remain positive on its strong competitive positioningrobust order backlog and healthy balance sheet (it is a debt-free company with superior return ratios). What sets TTL apart from its domestic peers is that the company has partly derisked its business model from the slowdown in the domestic capital expenditure by increasing its exposure to overseas markets and the after-market segmentThe company continues to look attractive on the valuation front at 16.5x FY2017E earnings per shareconsidering the expectation of a compounded annual growth rate of 39in its earnings over FY2014-17. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a price target of Rs128
Any view

glenmark

Triveni Turbines
__________________
thx
nTuple

Disclaimer: I am not a Research Analyst and not registered with any regulating authority. All posts are for educational purpose only.

Consider us a dumb -dumble guy in this analysis, any type of real time example will be quick-learn approach.

Last edited by nTP; 17-10-2015 at 09:40 PM.
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Old 18-10-2015, 11:39 PM
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Originally Posted by nTuple View Post
glenmark

Triveni Turbines

Triveni Turbine got its target in March 2015 and retouched the same target in July 2015.
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Old 19-10-2015, 02:02 PM
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Not much moat Why not Thermax instead?
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