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  #31 (permalink)  
Old 13-12-2015, 05:47 PM
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FII trades 11th Dec

-15980 net index contracts
long liquidation and new Shorts

+4940 net stock fut cont
New long and few Short covering.

-2092 net index calls
New long and new Shorts

+5710 net index puts.
New long and new Shorts

Net long index contract at -39173 net cont And they are short by -172543 net contracts on stock.

Pressure in market, Bank Nifty was a bigger laggard. There is marked change in perception of people and optimism is wading.

FII were seen selling Nifty aggressively, They were seen buying stock futures and puts.

Clients were seen buying Index aggressively. They were seen shorting Stock Futures. They were also buyers in calls and were seen liquidating Puts.

Props were seen shorting Index They were seen shorting calls and short covering puts.

DII were seen short covering Stock futures.

Lines are drawn and people are bears and bulls have made their positions. We can see mammoth short position in Index and long Puts by FII.

International Markets are in favor of bears, Macros are favoring Bulls. Outcome of FED, GST will set the tone.

Looking at data, There is no positive change, in-fact the shorts in Nifty are rising. Last hope for Bulls are 7540 , where it can make double bottom

Loads of Negative rumers are spread throw WhatsApp that l&t will default Greece will default etc etc pls don't pay attention to such news stay calm and continue to hold good stocks with good management any panic selling must bee seen as chance to buy for those who have cash left in the portfolio for those who don't have additional cash to invest should adequately provide for margin money to the brokers so that you don't panic when the world is selling

I would once again like to say that there are signs of green shoots visible in the economy one should see every dip in markets as opportunity to buy good quality stocks

GST will somehow make its way and after the fed rate hike there will be buying seen in emerging markets and India will be the biggest beneficiary we see the benchmark index nifty crossing 8000 mark very soon
JAI RAM JI KI
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Old 13-12-2015, 06:47 PM
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Quote:
Lingering concerns over the passage of GST Bill in the ongoing Parliament’s winter session and factors such as interest rate hike worries by the US Federal Reserve next week, falling commodity prices, funds outflow by foreign institutional investors and bleak global cues dragged the key benchmark indices over 2 per cent down for the week ended December 11. This week Sensex and Nifty fell 593.68 points and 171.45 points to 25,044.43 and 7,610.45, respectively.

Quote:
Gaurav Jain, director, Hem Securities, said, “Sharp selling pressure across the world markets ahead of US Fed policy, continued fall in commodity prices worldwide raising concerns over global slowdown, continued selling pressure by foreign portfolio investors, logjam of winter session of Parliament, losing hopes of passage of GST Bill and weakening of rupee against dollar has butchered the indices during the week.”

According to the website of NSDL, foreign institutional investors or foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers in the equity market segment as they sold shares of worth Rs 3,124.31 crore this week.

http://www.financialexpress.com/arti...tinues/177740/
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Old 24-12-2015, 06:16 PM
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weekend thought thinking to buy nifty jan at 7900 with 7900 put and 7400 puts at 124+16=140what is that I am not able to see except a range bound market can kill my puts but 150 point move in a mnth is always there with free puts whatever sell vallue and huge move can give good return any view please Jai Ram Ji KI
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Old 08-05-2016, 11:37 AM
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MAYDAY is a emergency distress signal internationally recognized as an SOS .
The Post budget recovery from an extremely oversold position was good reason for the Bulls to rejoice but the more important call was whether we were back into bull market territory. In a market that is driven mostly by liquidity all arguments can fail. But you need to call a spade a spade. Many start justifying a market rally as a sign that the worst is over. The reason that the market continues to jest the hopefuls is that a final top, in the market driving stocks and distribution in the Midcap/Smallcap segment, was incomplete. Rather than believe in conspiracy theories I would rather say that nobody knows. The study of cycles and market psychology is often ignored and termed as esoteric, or something that few can comprehend. Maybe but if there is a science to the market it is better to know it than be ignorant. I do not talk down either fundamental analysis or economic analysis, I just use it to complement my study of cycles. It is also further amusing that this debate and finger pointing is more prominent in the Indian financial Industry rather than the West. The market discussions in the Western media have matured on this. The science of markets.
So I was expecting an X wave in Jan and yes EMs and EM currencies did bottom by mid to late Jan however the Indian market continued to do its own thing. The reason was mostly the Banking sector delaying the declaration of its worst performance ever. Is the worst over then? So nobody knew that things were going to get this bad you cannot take their word on its end either. So it will be over when it is over. Right now it is still getting worse.
So while markets can diverge in the near term the overall trends of world markets remain the same thanks to the free flow of global liquidity. The first wave of the reflation rally based on the falling dollar and rising commodities is done for now. Global equities as a whole are ready to resume their next plunge lower. I have already put out charts of all key global markets in Asia and Europe that completed wave 2/B up and are starting 3rd waves down. In the US too the Nasdaq took the lead. So today Nifty breaking 7770 marks the start of the next major leg down in the bear market for Nifty too.
Global equities are in a bear market and we are just starting the 3rd wave down in most markets. The Nifty is a complex bear market. Due to the difference in wave structure the Nifty may start the 5th leg down [wave Z] but the Midcap indices will only be in a 3rd [Wave Y].
What is particularly interesting is that the Nifty in this rally formed an expanding triangle at the top of the rally. My past experience with this pattern is that you get a quick and immediate reversal and speed on the way down. The immediate implications of this expanding triangle are a measurement target of 7167 on a break of 7620.At a larger degree we are in wave Z down. 2 trendlines of the highs and lows show an expanding pattern as the bear market progresses. This is different from the usual downward channel seen in most bear markets. So the next move down can easily progress from the upper line to the lower line near 6400. Remember 6600 is approximately 61.8% of the previous bull run from 5118-9116. Note that this is wave Z down and wave Z will be a 3 wave decline marked as A-B-C. Wave A of Z itself would break the 6825 low seen recently. Wave B would retrace 50-61.8% of wave A, and wave C at least equal to wave A can go to as far as 6000. Now you can argue for a truncated wave Z that only retests the 7825 low or does not go below 7600. But I am discussing the worst case scenario because of the reasons that follow. A target of 6600-6000 presumes that prices will respect this expanding triangle and its trendlines. However expanding patterns can be violent and so negative events and trends can cause the final wave down in Z to extend in a collapse. In that scenario the long term wave count offers this explanation. On the chart of the Sensex below the 5th wave formed after a breakout from a triangle [2008-2013]. If the 5th wave has ended without extending then the next bear market should test the 4th wave of lower degree. That is the starting point of wave 5 which was at 5118. So a panic reaction in the market in wave Z can take prices to near or slightly below the 5118 level before the bear market is over. The bulls may argue that wave 1 of 5 ended at 9116 and after a correction to 6600 odd we should resume the bull market in wave 3 of 5. This is not an invalid argument. However based on my Kondratieff cycle analysis and the mirror image with the 1992-2001 business cycle I believe that this is less likely. The 5th wave has ended and the next bull market when it starts will mark the start of a new wave and new cycle for the next generation. We are in the last phase of this bear market and the business cycle of 2008-2017.
CONCLUSION
The set up the chart for a near term decline is already there. The wave counts so far unless proven wrong therefore indicate that the bear market goes on. The bear market rally in global equities is over and the next major phase down has started and should see new lows. The Dollar decline should be ending for now and reversing into a rally again. The size of the dollar rally we will figure. This will cause commodities to react down. But gold and silver should remain in long term bull markets despite a correction. The USDINR should start its next major leg up. If Sell in May has to work the charts completely support the adage at this moment. Prepare for the downside
Jai Ram JI KI
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