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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 22-09-2009, 08:37 PM
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Here's his latest post ----
Attached is a long term chart of Nifty, right from its inception. I had posted this way back on 1st July (either no one read it, or those who did, have forgotten it).

We CANNOT impose our WILL over the market and must learn to understand what the market is intending to do. What better tools than charts to do it. Moreover, Fibonacci retracements are very easily forgotten, and people concentrate on the shorter term and ignore the broader picture.

In the shorter term, yes, market is overbought, has run up quite a bit............so WHAT......says Fibonacci.

From the attached chart, which I repeat, was pointed out a few times earlier, Nifty has crossed the all important 61.8% retracement level of the crash of 2008, and I had explained last week, how the same level of 4780 - 90 was attacked a number of times by bears over a couple of days, and bulls took it up to safety. The level of 4920-22 was also important as mentioned last week (although not as important as 4780-90).

However, Nifty was smart enough to cross that level and close well above 4920.

This cushion of 1-1.2% above 4920, will act against any weak global cues over the long 3-day weekend, and in the even of a gap down open, bulls can step in at this level. If they fail, they have another big support level at 4860, and THEN, finally the all important long term level.

In spite of any weakness, I feel (saying again), we might not see 4780 - 90 again........(ever????....time will tell).

If we have a gap down open, and 4920 is held, that is a good stop for longs, if it fails. buy lower, with a stop loss of 4850. I see an expiry close near 4950ish. One can create positions in October series, and I see 5295 or even 5540 in October.

Long term targets for Nifty remain............hold your breath.........8010=====>>>>10110=====>>16190..... ...difficult to believe, yes, for me too!!!

I still feel, Gold will fall, and equities the world over will rise (I can hear a lot of people chuckling

We must remember, no high is high in a bull market, and no low is low in a bear market. It is only us humans who have fear of heights, not the market!!!

Cheers,

AP



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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 22-09-2009, 08:52 PM
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Originally Posted by shiree View Post
ITC Update--
Sept 230 call OI 257625 , OI reduction of 7 %

Wow but look at this--

OCTOBER 230 Call 79875 , OI increased by 63% , Premium Daily Hi 10 , Low 9.4 , So spread apealing to buy.

Well, I would like to Position trade OCTOBER 230 CALL

20% gain on 230 call . Will hold. But will remain watchful for a false Breakdown. Some how the fear of 210 lingers in ITC.
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Old 22-09-2009, 08:58 PM
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Originally Posted by stocks.murtaza View Post
Here's his latest post ----

Long term targets for Nifty remain............hold your breath.........8010=====>>>>10110=====>>16190..... ...difficult to believe, yes, for me too!!!

....sounding more like Sensex.
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Old 22-09-2009, 09:07 PM
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Yes, think of where the sensex will be at Nifty 8010, 10110 and 16190!!!!!!

Sat'Da -- listening?
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Old 22-09-2009, 09:27 PM
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Stock Murtaza -- very nice and informative post.
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Old 22-09-2009, 11:49 PM
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Originally Posted by stocks.murtaza View Post
Here's his latest post ----
Attached is a long term chart of Nifty, right from its inception. I had posted this way back on 1st July (either no one read it, or those who did, have forgotten it).

We CANNOT impose our WILL over the market and must learn to understand what the market is intending to do. What better tools than charts to do it. Moreover, Fibonacci retracements are very easily forgotten, and people concentrate on the shorter term and ignore the broader picture.

In the shorter term, yes, market is overbought, has run up quite a bit............so WHAT......says Fibonacci.

From the attached chart, which I repeat, was pointed out a few times earlier, Nifty has crossed the all important 61.8% retracement level of the crash of 2008, and I had explained last week, how the same level of 4780 - 90 was attacked a number of times by bears over a couple of days, and bulls took it up to safety. The level of 4920-22 was also important as mentioned last week (although not as important as 4780-90).

However, Nifty was smart enough to cross that level and close well above 4920.

This cushion of 1-1.2% above 4920, will act against any weak global cues over the long 3-day weekend, and in the even of a gap down open, bulls can step in at this level. If they fail, they have another big support level at 4860, and THEN, finally the all important long term level.

In spite of any weakness, I feel (saying again), we might not see 4780 - 90 again........(ever????....time will tell).

If we have a gap down open, and 4920 is held, that is a good stop for longs, if it fails. buy lower, with a stop loss of 4850. I see an expiry close near 4950ish. One can create positions in October series, and I see 5295 or even 5540 in October.

Long term targets for Nifty remain............hold your breath.........8010=====>>>>10110=====>>16190..... ...difficult to believe, yes, for me too!!!

I still feel, Gold will fall, and equities the world over will rise (I can hear a lot of people chuckling

We must remember, no high is high in a bull market, and no low is low in a bear market. It is only us humans who have fear of heights, not the market!!!

Cheers,

AP




Awesome analysis...I am also in touch with him personally...he is a great guy with great knowledge on the markets...levels....charts...and what not...truly a gem kind of person....very open, straight n forward....

I also posted some long term levels of Nifty on his blog -
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?bl...56460530000341

Have a look and comment...

thanks
abhinav
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 23-09-2009, 11:17 PM
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http://sagecapital.wordpress.com/

Nice analysis(es) ....
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Old 25-09-2009, 05:42 PM
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Default Suzlon looks bearish...Heading for 84?

Hi All,

Suzlon looks bearish to me. It has broken the short term trendline and is heading for its another medium term trendline. Today I have bought 85PA @ 2.5 and expecting it go double pretty soon.

Attaching the chart...Please share your views about this.

Thanks
Abhinav
Attached Images
File Type: png suzlon.png (24.6 KB, 21 views)
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 25-09-2009, 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by abhinkoi View Post
Hi All,

Suzlon looks bearish to me. It has broken the short term trendline and is heading for its another medium term trendline. Today I have bought 85PA @ 2.5 and expecting it go double pretty soon.

Attaching the chart...Please share your views about this.

Thanks
Abhinav

Yes I am holding 85 PUT.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 25-09-2009, 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by shiree View Post
Yes I am holding 85 PUT.

Thanks Uncle..Would you suggest any SL in premium value or cash value?

Thx
Abhinav
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