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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 03-05-2016, 02:55 PM
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We shall look at 3.20/3.25 at the sar levels and take decision to flip to short or carry longs depending on the system.

Also note that the system has given 2K+ profits since budget day so some whips are expected. It is unfortunate that whips are coming in everyday since last 3 trading sessions when we chose to test forward the saem.

But in a way its good - traders will not be drawn to it only bcoz it shows good profit everytime - there are times when it gives a hit - take it ... and the sytem shall reward you more for it.
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Old 03-05-2016, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by MurAtt View Post
No it was a daily reversal level for NF 7920 abv we should have flipped to long.

OK but still confused.. Decision to be taken on closing basis or just break of SAR level...

For example BNF long taken today at 16765 is already in loss of 300+ points..

If position taken as short at 16450 there is inbuilt risk of about 200 points ie LTP and VWAP ( 16630 ) divergence which can get corrected.

Pl clarify rules
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Old 03-05-2016, 03:22 PM
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This is a super simple system.

There is only 1 reversal level that is calculated based on eod levels from the previous day.

Now the rules for trading the system are as follows. I am using hard times, so that there is no ambiguity.

a. Wait for market to open and settle down. Typically this would happen by 9:20-9:30. We do not want the first 5-10 mins of volatile trading to affect the trades. For the rest of this answer, i am taking the time as 9:30am.

b. At 9:30am, you have to enter a sl market order with trigger price at the reversal price. This will be for double the quantity after you take the first position in the system.

c. You do nothing else till market nears closing. This pre-close decision is taken anywhere between 3:15-3:25pm, i am considering 3:15pm for this example.

d. Near closing, if market did not fill the stop loss market order entered at 9:30am, you will cancel that order and be done for the day.

e. Now if the order filled, then you have 2 options. For this example I am considering starting the day with a overnight short position and a reversal order as a buy order so that if market reverses, we end up as long. The opposite applies when you come in with a long position and get your sell stop loss orders triggered during the day:
i. If the price at 3:15pm is > the reversal price, then you move on and hold your now long position overnight.
ii. If price is below the reversal price, then you reverse your position with a market order and go in the direction of the trade that you started with when the day began.
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Old 03-05-2016, 03:24 PM
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System is system -

Flipped Long 16765 at 16495 at 15:22 pm. So net loss 100+ (16765-16495) = 100+270 = 370 pts.

We are now short at 16495
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Old 03-05-2016, 03:24 PM
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And yes - most important - these are Real Live Trades for me - traders here may be walk forward testing it - thats ok.
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Old 03-05-2016, 03:29 PM
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Now going through the above rules for nifty, the following would have been done today. This example assumes that we are trading 1 lot of nifty futures with this method. Reversal level of 7919:

a. We started the day with a short position of 1 lot, so reversal price is for going long.
b. At 9:30am, we enter a stop loss market buy order for quantity of 2 lots (150)
c. Our order gets filled sometime in the next 10 mins (i am using a 10 min chart for nf right now)
d. We are now long 1 lot of nifty futures with price around 7919. I am assuming getting a fill for this price, as nifty mostly gets filled at trigger price for small orders.
e. We do nothing more till 3:20pm -- This is important
f. At 3:20pm, we see the price at 7788, this is less than the reversal price.
g. Now we enter a market sell order for 2 lots of nifty. Say we get filled at around 7785 ( assuming some slippage).
h. Now we are again short 1 lot of nifty at 7785

We have suffered a loss of 7919 - 7785 = 134 points today due to an intraday whipsaw.

I hope all this is perfectly clear.

-- no1lives4ever
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Old 03-05-2016, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by MurAtt View Post
And yes - most important - these are Real Live Trades for me - traders here may be walk forward testing it - thats ok.

Thanks to MurAtt for actual trade and No1 for explaining rules with example..
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Old 03-05-2016, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by MurAtt View Post
Also note that the system has given 2K+ profits since budget day so some whips are expected. It is unfortunate that whips are coming in everyday since last 3 trading sessions when we chose to test forward the saem.

From budget day one way rally seen.. Bank Nifty making HH-HL on Weekly chart.

None of the weekly candle given close below 50% retracement of last EOD weekly candle..

As positional trade it can be used as SAR level on closing basis.. It also yielded some 2000 points
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Old 03-05-2016, 05:54 PM
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Chart post karenge to Aur bhi acchha hoga!
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Old 03-05-2016, 06:00 PM
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Originally Posted by amoghsd View Post
From budget day one way rally seen.. Bank Nifty making HH-HL on Weekly chart.

None of the weekly candle given close below 50% retracement of last EOD weekly candle..

As positional trade it can be used as SAR level on closing basis.. It also yielded some 2000 points

Here is the thing. There are tons of methods of capturing big trending moves on stocks and indices.

But how many of us actually end up trading such methods on a consistent basis to be able to capture the profits? It is very easy to see trades in historical charts. What about actually trading these moves?

This thread is an example of how a simple system can be used to trade the index, capture big portions of the trend trades and give back a percentage of the big trend moves in the form of whipsaws.

I suppose that by doing live forward testing w/o revealing the complete system is a good way to show what is possible with a simple idea.

-- no1lives4ever
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