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  #2591 (permalink)  
Old 30-04-2016, 12:52 PM
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Sine Wave banega ?
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  #2592 (permalink)  
Old 30-04-2016, 07:52 PM
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Originally Posted by jazz View Post
This is a cyclical business. They have suffered in past 5 years, before that they enjoyed hefty returns from power/real estate boom periods of 07-09.
Look at voltamp, it had Roce of as high as 95% which has fallen to just 7%.
Many might have got washed away for sure.

But if you saw the interview of mgmt of TRIL, he mentioned demand has picked up and margins are improving for all transformer companies. He talks about 100% growth next year.
Voltamp too has seen 40% jump in orderbook last q.

This is classic case of Revision to the mean. Excess returns attracting competition which leads to access capacity which reduces prices, which gets corrected by way of lower returns. Pure microeconomics in play.

Agreed. But the excess capacity is in China and in no way controllable from India. Unless some tariff barriers (and/or mandatory local sourcing etc) are imposed, it will be impossible to prevent Chinese from flooding the market again when they get the slightest sniff of demand revival. China is quite desperate in every segment. So the question is how long this recovery will last?
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  #2593 (permalink)  
Old 02-05-2016, 06:23 PM
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Originally Posted by rsi View Post
Agreed. But the excess capacity is in China and in no way controllable from India. Unless some tariff barriers (and/or mandatory local sourcing etc) are imposed, it will be impossible to prevent Chinese from flooding the market again when they get the slightest sniff of demand revival. China is quite desperate in every segment. So the question is how long this recovery will last?

How long will it last? your guess is as good as mine. We can only rely on data.
Im not sure abt this -

Make in India requirement that only those companies which had manufacturing setup in India can participate in PSU/SEB bidding process. This eliminated the competition from Chinese and South Korean vendors.

If true, this puts cap on nearterm supply
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  #2594 (permalink)  
Old 04-05-2016, 11:09 AM
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Another article pointing towards 100% growth in Transformers demand by next 12-15 months.
vccircle.com/news/power/2016/04/08/india-set-pilot-project-specialised-steel-manufacturing

Disc: Hold Voltamp, TRIL
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  #2595 (permalink)  
Old 12-05-2016, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by jazz View Post
Code:
DFM FOODS LTD.											

	FY14	FY13	FY12	FY11	FY10	FY09	FY08	FY07		CAGR %	
											
Volume	13631	11853	9328	6590	4504	3611	2903	2407		24.2	
											
Sales	263.25	225.24	169.42	119.84	72.18	53.33	31.66	23.88		34.99	  // Pricing Power #MOAT
											
Price/mt193125	190028	181625	181851	160250 147600	109500	100000		8.57	// Economies Of Scale
											
PAT	9.4	6.31	10.36	8.32	4.21	2	0.78	0.53		43.25	 // UnAdjusted ( Owners Earnings is higher than reported PAT)
NPM	3.57	2.80	6.11	6.94	5.83	3.75	2.46	2.22			


Assumptions	By year 10, 										
	Volume Growth 12%										
	Per MT grows by 8%										
	Adjusted PAT/Owners Earnings margin 8%										
By 2024											
Volume	42,335.82										
Price per mt	417,136.69										
Sales	1765CRS									

Adjusted PAT/ Owners Earnings	141.2crs								

If still its able to grow, a 17X will value the company at 	2400.4crs						
CMP OF 300CRS, Avg returns for Next Decade is around 23% Vs. Risk Free Returns of around 10%


This is how wide I went worng in this one
Was expecting 2400/- by 2024
http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-d...140_083950.pdf

https://www.google.com/finance?q=BOM...NMOrugSB4pi4Bw
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  #2596 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2016, 02:06 PM
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In 07-08, entire pharma industry had a mcap less than DLF

Now whole real estate industry has mcap less than Lupin ! - RJ

Lines to ponder upon
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  #2597 (permalink)  
Old 08-06-2016, 02:36 PM
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Sobha Developers first Realestate company to come out saying We are undervalued. Approves Buyback
Anant Raj board to consider Demerger to unlock value
DLF plans to sell 40% stake in rental arm to fetch 12-14k Crs. Also plans to list India's first REIT ( possible future bubble )

Aache din for some of Real estate comp
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  #2598 (permalink)  
Old 08-06-2016, 02:46 PM
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just read some where, in 2008 all pharma cos were valued less than DLF then, now all real estate cos are valued less than Lupin, is it true?
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  #2599 (permalink)  
Old 08-06-2016, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by jazz View Post
In 07-08, entire pharma industry had a mcap less than DLF

Now whole real estate industry has mcap less than Lupin ! - RJ

Lines to ponder upon

Originally Posted by novicetrader View Post
just read some where, in 2008 all pharma cos were valued less than DLF then, now all real estate cos are valued less than Lupin, is it true?

This was posted on the same page, look one post above!!

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Old 08-06-2016, 02:54 PM
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but does it hv substance
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