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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 23-11-2016, 11:22 PM
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Default Daily Report on November 23, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 23, 2016



Global shares rallied for a third consecutive day on Wednesday amid optimism economic growth is strong enough to withstand higher U.S. interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index gained 0.7 percent, following a 1.1 percent increase in the last session. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed more than 1.0 percent while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 0.2 percent.

European shares rose to a four-week high after U.S. stock indexes jumped to all-time records on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent in London, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index also ticked higher. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond is scheduled to deliver his “Autumn Statement” to parliament later today.

The finance minister will not only lay out the government’s first tax and infrastructure spending plans since the country’s Brexit vote in June to leave the European Union, but also announce government’s economic forecasts and budget goals.

Oil swung between gains and losses after OPEC deferred a decision on production cuts. The cartel left Vienna empty-handed as it failed to agree on how Iran and Iraq will participate in the deal to reduce output. As a result, the agreement will not be resolved until the group’s formal meeting on Nov. 30. The gloomy outlook for oil market overshadowed weekly report by the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute that U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week. On the contrary, official government data due Wednesday is anticipated to point to an increase.

The minutes from the Fed’s November meeting which are due for release on Wednesday are expected to confirm officials were creeping closer to their first rate increase in a year. Along with the Fed minutes, U.S. data on durable goods orders, jobless claims, home prices and manufacturing are due Wednesday.



Technicals

AUDJPY



Fig: AUDJPY D1 Technical Chart

AUDJPY is struggling around the 82.500 level which has forced the pair to reverse lower two times in the last two weeks. The pair is edging higher, attempting to test the resistance at 36.2% level – the highest since late-April. With RSI pointing to the oversold zone and a divergence between the +DI and –DI lines of the stochastic chart, the pair is expected to extend its gains.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 82.600 to 83.500 valid until 20:00 GMT November 23, 2016



GBPCHF



Fig: GBPCHF H4 Technical Chart

GBPCHF has been on a decline since it reversed lower at the 23.6% retracement. The pair has breached the support at 1.25140 and is approaching a major support at 1.24000. ADX is edging higher, suggesting a powerful trend in the market. RSI has moved past the 50 line which consolidates the downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.25000 to 1.24000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 23, 2016



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold has been trading in a thin range around the 50.0% Fibonacci level since last Thursday. The price action has crossed over the short-term MA20 but downward pressure from the long-term MA50 are being exerted on the price, which has restrained gold’s bullish momentum even though the precious metal has been supported by the 50.0% handle. While ADX showed no clear trend in the market, gold is expected to edge lower as RSI is suggesting a strengthening bear.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1210.00 to 1200.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 23, 2016



CAC40



Fig: CAC 40 H4 Technical Chart

CAC 40 pulled back from near the 61.8% level. The index is facing the short-term MA20 and is about to fall into a gap created by two MAs. The %K line is taking a lead over the %D line and heading downwards. However, with the support from two MAs, the index is expected to reverse higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 4500.00 to 4554.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 23, 2016
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 24-11-2016, 07:56 PM
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Default Daily Report on November 24, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 24, 2016



Most Asian stock market retreated while European shares gained modestly on Thursday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.4 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's blue-chip CSI300 index also declined, sliding 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. On the contrary, the drop in the Japanese yen lifted the export-orientated Nikkei in Tokyo to a near 11-month high.

Wednesday’s upbeat economic data and Fed meeting minutes strengthened the prospect for higher U.S. interest rates, helping sustain the dollar's rally on Thursday. The greenback reached fresh highs across the board against rivals, sending the dollar index to fresh 13-and-half-year highs in early European trade. As a result, gold futures plunged, extending the prior day’s drop.

Gold prices hit their lowest settlement since early February, after solid U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve meeting minutes which underpinned speculation for an interest-rate rise, raised the opportunity cost of holding the non-yield asset.

According to pricing in federal funds futures contracts, investors are betting in a 100 percent probability of a change in the U.S. rate next month, as the minutes of November’s meeting said a rate hike could come “relatively soon.”

“Some participants noted that recent committee communications were consistent with an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate in the near term or argued that to preserve credibility, such an increase should occur at the next meeting,” the record of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed.

Given a tightening labor market and improving inflation, Federal Reserve officials saw a strengthening case to raise interest rates. Fed policymakers will hold their final meeting of the year in mid-December.

Crude oil were relatively steady on Thursday, even after a weekly report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil stocks fell last week after three straight weeks of builds. Crude oil inventories dropped 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 18 as imports declined while refineries hiked output. Traders are waiting for next week's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Trading volume is expected to be lighter than usual, as U.S. equity markets are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday.



Technicals

EURGBP



Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP has fallen into a consolidation around 0.84800 after falling sharply from the level at 0.85800. The pair had been on a rise before hitting the long-term MA50. As can be seen from the RSI chart, the market has remained in the bearish territory for more than 2 weeks. With downward pressure from a couple of MAs hanging above the price chart, the pair is expected to slide further to the 38.2% level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.84600 to 0.84000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 24, 2016



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY has rallied for half of a month and has breached three Fibonacci levels in a row. The pair is attempting another Fib retracement at 61.8% handle. Although the target may be reached, the market is likely to fall into a correction as it has penetrated the oversold area.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 113.200 to 114.000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 24, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver has pulled back but still held near 5-and-1/2 lows at 16.141. The metal price broke below the 61.8% level yesterday after moving back and forth around this handle. As bears are still overwhelmingly dominating in the market and being supported by two MAs lingering above the price action, silver is anticipated to test the 16.000 support.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 16.300 to 16.000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 24, 2016



EURO 50



Fig: EURO 50 Index H4 Technical Chart

Euro 50 index has been swing between gains and losses since the start of last week. The benchmark is struggling below the 3040.00 level with no clear trend in the market. While the two MAs have twisted with the price action, the RSI index is lingering near the 50 line. In the case of continual upbeat moves, the index is expected to test the 3060.00 level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 3040.00 to 3060.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 24, 2016
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 24-11-2016, 08:01 PM
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Default

USD/ZAR signal by Option Banque

From 14.20500
Till 14.30000

Buy Option Digital
Direction Call
Expiry GMT 21:00 24/11/2016
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 25-11-2016, 12:30 AM
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Default Brent Crude Market Outlook by Opttion Banque

Oil Retreats Ahead Of OPEC’s Meeting, Market Activily Low On Holiday

Crude oil prices were slightly lower on Thursday. Even though U.S. crude supplies were reported to U.S. crude oil stocks drop last week, investors remained in cautiousness ahead of next week’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to finalize its proposed cap on production reached earlier this September.

Due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, market activity was low on Thursday. Furthermore, traders were reluctant to take on big price bets amid uncertainties over the outcome of OPEC’s meeting which is scheduled on November 30th.

Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated earlier today that Russia could revise down its 2017 oil production plans by 200,000-300,000 barrels per day (bpd) if a global output freeze comes into force. As reported to be stated by Azerbaijan Energy Minister Natig Aliyev, OPEC will probably propose that other producers cut production by 880,000 bpd for six months starting from next year.

However, according to an OPEC source, OPEC has yet to make a final proposal to non-OPEC countries on joint production cuts, which will not be discussed until Nov. 28 in Vienna.

It remains uncertain whether an output-cut deal could be enough to balance a market that has already been dogged by a glut for more than 2 years. Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency, said that even if production is cut, higher prices could prompt U.S. shale oil drillers to massively increase their own output.

A weekly report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil stocks fell last week after three straight weeks of builds. Crude oil inventories dropped 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 18 as imports declined while refineries hiked output.


Fig: BRENT D1 Technical Chart

Brent crude has retreated for a third consecutive session after reaching the highest level since October 31 on Monday. The price action failed to breach the long term DMA50 and is heading downwards to the support at 23.6% level. Stochastic lines have escaped from the overbought zone and is pointing down, suggesting further declines.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 48.80 to 48.20 valid until 20:00 GMT November 25, 2016
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 25-11-2016, 08:41 PM
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Default Daily Report on November 25, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 25, 2016



The U.S. dollar pared a weekly surge on Friday, as its rally came to a halt when investors took profit in the last session of the week. Global equities were higher with the MSCI All-Country World Index extending its weekly advance to 1.1 percent. U.S. equity-index futures advanced with Treasury yields following the Thanksgiving holiday. Gold scaled back from a nine-month low, while crude price trimmed its second weekly gain.

Oil dropped more than 1% on Friday as investors cast doubt on the outcome of the OPEC’s meeting next week while Arab Saudi was reported to increase its supplies to Asian clients. According to market sources, Saudi Aramco will push its supplies to some Asian customers higher in January as Russia has overtaken its place as top supplier to China. Even an output-cut deal is reached on November 30th; it will not impact supplies until February 2017 because most exporters sell their supplies two months ahead.

The Office for National Statistics on Friday confirmed that Britain's economy grew 0.5 percent in the third quarter. The solid growth was powered by a rebound in net exports which added 0.7 percentage points to economic growth, and robust household spending. In overall, the economy expanded 2.3 percent versus the same period last year, which is unchanged from a preliminary estimate.

Elsewhere, a budget outline from Japanese government showed that Japan plans only a modest boost to government spending next year. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe looks set to take a different policy direction than one expected from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to reinforce fiscal stimulus. The budget document reiterates the government's ambitious aim to boost annual economic output by 20 percent to 600 trillion yen ($5.29 trillion) by fiscal 2020.



Technicals

EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart

EURUSD extended its correction from the lowest level since early-December, 2015. However, the upside seems limited as the pair is struggling around the short-term MA20 at 1.05849. RSI failed to move past the 50 line to confirm the uptrend. Therefore, the pair is anticipated to slide further.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.05700 to 1.05000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 25, 2016



GBPAUD



Fig: GBPAUD H4 Technical Chart

GBPAUD has been trading in a thin range after it breached the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.67630. The price action has broken below the short-term MA20 and is likely to cross over the long-term MA50 as well. With RSI having moved past the 50 line and pointing down, the pair may retest the support at 1.66650

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.67400 to 1.66650 valid until 20:00 GMT November 25, 2016



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold rebounded from the support at 61.8% - the lowest level last seen in early-February. Gold market is in a correction after a steady slide sent the market into the oversold zone. The precious metal may have to resume its downside soon as the short-term MA20 and the resistance at 1200.00 are within the sight.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1200.00 to 1180.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 25, 2016



FTSE 100



Fig: FTSE 100 Index H4 Technical Chart

FTSE 100 index has broken above the resistance at 6820.00. In general, the index has been moving sideways around this level for most part of the week. As RSI is pointing to a market in favor of buyers and two MAs are hanging below the price action, the U.K. stock benchmark may edge higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 6850.00 to 6900.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 25, 2016
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 25-11-2016, 08:44 PM
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Default

COFFEE signal by Option Banque

From 154.40
Till 153.00

Option Digital
Direction Put
Expiry GMT 21:00 25/11/2016
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 25-11-2016, 11:29 PM
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Default Gold Trade Idea by Option Banque

U.S. Dollar Rally Halts In Postholiday Trading But Gold Remains Weak

Gold prices continued to drop on Friday, hitting a fresh 9-month low at $1170.77 per ounce even though the U.S. dollar’s bull run paused today.

The precious metal plummeted about 3.6% for the week as the dollar index notched its highest level in over a decade amid rising speculations that the Federal Reserve will nudge interest rates higher next month. Higher interest rates are typically negative for non-yielding assets such as gold. Additionally, stronger greenback makes gold less affordable for buyers holding other currencies.

The dollar’s rally came to a halt on Friday. However, with economic data remaining positive, financial markets see a 93.5% chance the central bank will raise rates a quarter-point to a range of 0.5% to 0.75% during its next policy meeting in mid-December

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1180.00 to 1170.00 valid until 21:00 GMT November 25, 2016
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2016, 02:34 PM
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Default Daily Report on November 28, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 28, 2016



Asian equities rose on Monday as gains in utilities and consumer shares overweighed losses in energy producers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8 percent, with the sub-gauge of utilities advancing 1.4 percent. The Hang Seng Index edged 0.8 percent higher while a gauge of mainland companies traded in the city soared 1.1 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index ticked up by 0.5 percent.

Metal surged with zinc rallying 4.2 percent, heading for its highest close in nine years in London, as bullish speculative sentiment in China spurred a fresh surge for industrial metals. Lead looks set for its strongest settlement since 2011 while gold climbed.

Crude oil opened the first session of the week with a gap down as prospects for an OPEC production freeze agreement at the group’s formal meeting Wednesday faded after Saudi Arabia on Sunday showed signs of unwillingness to join such deal.

According to the Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat, Khalid Al-Falih, the Saudi oil minister on Sunday stated that “We expect demand to recover in 2017, then prices will stabilize, and this will happen without an intervention from OPEC,”. The kingdom also withdrew from talks originally scheduled for Monday with producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Lower oil prices which help reduce inflationary pressure, sapped momentum for a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries. Ten-year Treasuries rose for the first time in three sessions, pushing yields down three basis points to 2.33 percent. The dollar's index has slid 0.5 percent so far on the day to 100.89 after reaching its 13 1/2-year high of 102.05 touched on Thursday.



Technicals

AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

AUDUSD extended its rally to a fifth in the last six trading days. The pair has successfully breached the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.74500 after having crossed over a couple of MAs. The short-term MA20 has penetrated the long-term MA50 from below, consolidating the uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.74800 to 0.75300 valid until 20:00 GMT November 28, 2016



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD has been trading in a shrinking range which has created higher lows and lower highs. The pair rebounded following a slide from the upper boundary. As can be seen from the chart, two MAs have been supporting the price. RSI has returned to the bullish area, indicating dominating buyers.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.34800 to 1.35200 valid until 20:00 GMT November 28, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver’s price action has crossed over the long-term MA50 after breaching the 61.8% Fibonacci level. RSI has entered the bullish territory for the first time since November 10th. The grey metal is expected to extend its rally to re-attempt the resistance at 17.075.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 16.800 to 17.075 valid until 20:00 GMT November 28, 2016



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent resumed its downtrend after scaling back from the lowest level since November 10th at 46.46. The commodity had almost reached the 23.6% level but bulls failed to sustain the bullish momentum. While RSI has neared the oversold zone, ADX is still on a rise. Downward pressure from two MAs is expected to send the price lower.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 46.90 to 46.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 28, 2016



DAX 30



Fig: DAX 30 Index H4 Technical Chart

Germany’s DAX 30 index has been moving sideways to lower for nearly three weeks. The benchmark has been under downward pressure from a couple of MAs that have restrained the prices from surging higher. RSI keeps swinging back and forth around the 50 line. The indicator is heading downwards, suggesting a stronger bearish momentum. The index may retest the support at 10600.00.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 10670.00 to 10600.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 28, 2016
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2016, 02:37 PM
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U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Remain Key Data, OPEC Meeting Awaited

The U.S. dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies in a shortened post-holiday trade on Friday as traders took profit after a strong rally that sent the greenback to nearly 14-year highs. The U.S. market was closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and Friday was a half-day session.

The dollar index slid by 0.28% to 101.48 late Friday after having risen around 6% in the last two months due in part to expectations that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under the Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation. Furthermore, the fact that a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December is a near certainty has also boost the dollar as higher interest rates make the currency more attractive to yield seeking investors.

Past week’s U.S. economic reports all contributed to supporting the case of a rate hike next month. Existing home sales, durable goods, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the Richmond Fed index all exceeded economists’ forecast, indicating that the U.S. economy is improving. Next week’s data including consumer confidence, the ISM manufacturing index and nonfarm payrolls are highly expected to help the dollar sustain its bullish run.

The Euro pulled back on Friday after hitting the lowest level since early December 02nd, 2015 at $1.05171. In the week ahead, the focus for the single currency will be on German consumer prices on Tuesday, Eurozone Flash CPI on Wednesday and Manufacturing PMI on Thursday. Before those economic reports, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to testify about the ECB’s outlook on economic and monetary developments and the consequences of Brexit to the Economic Committee in the European Parliament on Monday.

The Canadian dollar is anticipated to fluctuate widely next week as markets will be paying close attention to the outcome of the 171st OPEC meeting starting on November 30th. If OPEC failed to reach an output-cut agreement, oil prices will crash, sending CAD sharply lower. The cartel’s decision may overshadow Canada’s Q3 GDP report due on the same day. However, next Friday’s employment numbers should return as a key driver for the Loonie.

Sterling turned higher against the dollar last week but still remained in a consolidation. U.K. Chancellor Hammond’s first statement on the Budget last Wednesday showed that growth forecasts for the next 2 years were lowered.

However, the Chancellor announced a new National Productivity Investment Fund of 23 billion pounds, promising more borrowing and investment in innovation and infrastructure. These new spending plans helped send sterling higher versus most of its peers. U.K. PMI manufacturing and construction numbers are scheduled for release next week.

There are no major New Zealand economic reports on the calendar in the week ahead except for the Financial Stability Report. Australia has retail sales and manufacturing PMI numbers scheduled, but the Aussie’s movement is expected to be driven by Chinese PMIs and commodity prices.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2016, 02:38 PM
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Default

AUD/CAD signal by Option Banque

From 1.00700
Till 1.01300

Buy Option Digital
Direction Call
Expiry GMT 21:00 28/11/2016
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