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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 16-11-2016, 07:59 PM
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Default Daily Technical Analysis by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 16, 2016



Asian shares advanced for the first time in the last four trading days, led by energy stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific added 0.8% with energy sectors jumping 1.4%. Shares of energy companies surged high as crude oil has experienced the best daily gain in seven months, which was driven by OPEC efforts to agree output cuts.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Topix index rallied toa nine-month high thanks to gains in banking shares which have been powered by earnings reports and the recent surge in bond yields.

The dollar fell versus the euro and the yen in Asian morning session after extending its rally yesterday. However, investors are still betting on a high chance that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by the year’s end. Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo on Tuesday said that an interest-rate rise next month was more likely than before. Fed funds futures imply a 94 percent probability of an increase.

Other Fed Presidents including James Bullard, Neel Kashkari and Patrick Harker are scheduled to speak on Wednesday and may shed more light on the likely trajectory of borrowing costs.

Oil futures pared some of their gains nearly 6 percent from the session before, sliding on Wednesday after an industry report showed an unexpected build in U.S. crude stocks last week. According to the weekly report by the American Petroleum Institute, crude inventories climbed by 3.6 million barrels to 488.8 million barrels in the week to November 11. Analyst had expected for an increase of 1.5 million barrels. Official figures on stockpiles from the U.S. Energy Information Administration are due later today.



Technicals

USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY has been moving sideways under a major resistance at 109.200 after breaking above the 38.2% level at 108.320. As can be observed from the Stochastic chart, the market has penetrated the overbought zone, however, the ADX index is soaring, which implies that the pair may surge higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 109.200 to 110.000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 16, 2016



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

AUDUSD has been moving in a thin range under the resistance at 0.75600. The pair had to give up its strength as the price action failed to cross over short-term MA20. A sliding ADX indicates unclear trend on the market but a RSI index remaining in the bearish zone suggests that the Aussie may fall further.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.75400 to 0.75100 valid until 20:00 GMT November 16, 2016



Sugar



Fig: Sugar H4 Technical Chart

Sugar has broken below a shrinking trading range yesterday and even breached the support at 21.10 – the lowest level in two weeks. The commodity pulled back as it hit the 23.6% retracement and closed the trading session at the 21.10 level. As investors have already jumped in and bought the dips, sugar may fall lower as the market has still been in a favor of sellers, as indicated by RSI chart.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 21.05 to 20.80 valid until 20:00 GMT November 16, 2016



S&P500



Fig: S&P500 H4 Technical Chart

S&P 500 index extended gains in yesterday session from the support at 2155.00. The U.S. benchmark has been powered by the short-term MA20 and may soar higher to attempt the record high at 2193.03 recorded three months ago. The last two candles with no shadows indicate a strong rally. RSI index which is pointing upwards also consolidates further up moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 2180.00 to 2190.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 16, 2016
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Old 16-11-2016, 08:08 PM
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Default Copper Market Outlook by Option Banque

Copper Halts Trump’s Rally, Retreating On Market Correction

Copper inched lower on Wednesday after vacillating widely the day before. The metal has been on a slide since last Friday after surging to multi-year highs following Donald Trump’s surprise US election win as he pledged to boost infrastructure spending. A strong rally which sent the commodity higher by more than 11% signaled to some traders that prices might have risen too far, too fast.

So far in this quarter, copper has been the best performer on the London Metal Exchange thanks to more evidences of economic resilience in China, which accounts for 40% of the world’s copper demand. Besides, the U.S.

president-elect Trump also pledged to spur 1 trillion U.S. dollar of investment on infrastructure such as bridges, airports and roads.

According to market sources, the victory of the Republican candidate increased the volatility in metal prices and the rally was only triggered by speculations.

Therefore, it is inevitable for the market to fall into a correction as everyone who would like to buy has bought and there are mostly sellers left in the market.

Adding to copper’s woes, executives at some of the world’s major producers of the metal on Wednesday said that global copper markets will be oversupplied for at least two years. Iván Arriagada, chief executive of FTSE 100 miner Antofagasta has warned that demand growth in China will be outweighed by supply built up during the boom years.

Speaking at an industry conference in Shanghai on Wednesday, Duncan Wanbald, head of base metals and minerals at Anglo American, claimed that he only saw a “slow” increase in prices over the next two years before a deficit emerges in 2019.

Tougher environmental regulations on mining and higher costs are other factors that will act as major long-term challenges for the industry, executives said.


Fig: COPPER D1 Technical Chart

Copper retreated from the highest level since late May, 2015 at 2.7333 to breach below the 38.2% level at 2.6648 and is approaching another Fibonacci support at 23.6% handle at 2.3880. As can be seen from indicator charts, ADX has been sliding from an extremely high level with +DI line pointing downwards.

Meanwhile, RSI has not escaped from the overbought zone yet, signaling further declines to come.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 2.4730 to 2.4300 valid until 20:00 GMT November 16, 2016
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 16-11-2016, 11:41 PM
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Default Crude Trade Idea by Option Banque

U.S. Crude Supplies On A Rise, Will Doha Leave OPEC Empty-Handed Again?

Oil futures turned lower on Wednesday after experiencing a significant rally the day before. Official data showing increasing crude supplies in the U.S. continued to weigh on oil prices, despite the fact that some OPEC and non-OPEC members have raised their voice to support an agreement to curb production which is expected to be finalized at the end of this month.

Reuters reported that Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak on Wednesday stated that his country is ready to join OPEC’s deal an agreement to curb production. Novak also added that he saw big chances that the oil producers’ group can agree on the terms of the freeze by November 30th. The Russian Energy Minister is expected to have a bilateral meeting with his Saudi counterpart, Khalid al-Falih, at a gas conference in Doha this week.

According to an Algerian energy source, a number of energy ministers from OPEC countries are likely to meet informally in Doha to try to build consensus over specific quotas for each member after having reached a preliminary decision on snapping oil production in September in Algiers.

In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported that domestic crude supplies rose by 5.3 million barrels in the week ended November 11th. The result exceeded analysts’ expectations which called for 1.5 million-barrel build last week.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 47.30 to 46.20 valid until 20:00 GMT November 17, 2016
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Old 16-11-2016, 11:43 PM
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Default

EUR/NZD signal by Option Banque

From 1.51800
Till 1.52500

Buy Option Digital
Direction Call
Expiry GMT 21:00 17/11/2016
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Old 17-11-2016, 08:24 PM
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Default Daily Report on November 17, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 17, 2016



Asian shares firmed while European stocks declined with Treasury yields on Thursday. The U.S. dollar also weakened as investors were cautiously waiting for report on American inflation data and the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen later on the day.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies, retreated by 0.15% to 100.15 after reaching its highest since April 2003 at 100.570 overnight. Fed President Yellen will be addressing Congress for the first time since Republican Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 08th.

His plans for fiscal stimulus including cutting rates and ramping up government spending are expected to spur inflation in the U.S. and thus quicken the pace of Fed interest-rate hikes. Speculation over a December rate increase has been rising, which triggered a global bonds rout and powered the dollar since the start of last week.

As a result of global bonds selloffs that caused Japanese government bonds yields to surge higher, the Bank of Japan on Thursday fired a warning shot against excessive yield moves by offering to buy an unlimited amount of JGB at fixed rates for the first time since the introduction of a new policy framework. The move reiterated Japanese central bank’s pledge to keep the benchmark yield pinned around zero percent.

Elsewhere, Australia's unemployment rate was reported to have been unchanged at 5.6% in October. As stated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the number of people employed rose by 9,800, driven by an increase in fulltime jobs. However, economists had expected overall employment to soar by 18,000 positions.



Technicals

EURGBP



Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP has been trading in a thin range in the last two days as the pair failed to breach the support at 0.85800. Nonetheless, the Euro is likely to lose ground versus its British counterpart as the short-term MA20 is containing the price. In the event of continual down moves, the pair may find its support at 0.84800.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.85800 to 0.84800 valid until 20:00 GMT November 17, 2016



AUDCAD



Fig: AUDCAD H4 Technical Chart

AUDCAD has extended its downtrend for the third consecutive trading day. Sellers have been overwhelmingly dominant in the market that forced the pair to remain in the oversold zone. Although ADX is surging, the +DI line has been pointing downwards, suggesting an underlying correction. The support at 38.2% retracement is expected to be the point the prompts the price to reverse higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.99860 to 1.00400 valid until 20:00 GMT November 17, 2016





Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF retreated from over 8-month highs near 1.00600. The pair is approaching the milestone at 1.00000 and the Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% level. As can be seen from the Stochastic chart, USDCHF has almost reached the oversold zone. Hence, a pullback is expected.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.00000 to 1.00600 valid until 20:00 GMT November 17, 2016



COFFEE


Fig: Coffee H4 Technical Chart

After a correction at the start of this week, coffee price resumed its slide but is trading sideways to lower above the support at 160.60. As can be observed from the ADX chart, there are no clear trend in the market yet, as the ADX has fallen below 20. However, sellers are overwhelming and may send the price lower after this consolidation.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 160.60 to 157.50 valid until 20:00 GMT November 17, 2016



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent crude resumed its uptrend after retreating from two-week highs at 47.54 logged yesterday. The level at 47.54 is also near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. With the short-term MA20 that has penetrated the long-term MA50 from below, the commodity price is expected to extend its uptrend, at least to re-attempt the 23.6% resistance.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 46.75 to 47.50 valid until 20:00 GMT November 17, 2016



DAX 30



Fig: DAX 30 H4 Technical Chart

Germany DAX 30 index has been on a decline which sent its price action to below the short-term MA20 for the first time since November 08. The crossover suggests a reversal into a downtrend, which has been confirmed by the RSI index that has just moved past the 50 line. The support at 50.0% retracement is within the sight.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 10620.00 to 10580.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 17, 2016
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 17-11-2016, 08:27 PM
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Default

Sugar Futures Lose Early Luster To Extend The Down Moves

Raw sugar futures pared earlier gains after falling sharply on Wednesday. The decline was partly due to the fact that funds pulled back long positions as the market had to digest a large delivery against the whiles contract. Meanwhile, market sources reported that output from Centre-South Brazil was higher than expected.

Industry group Unica on Wednesday said that sugar production in the Centre-South of Brazil was 2.05 million tons in the second half of October. The figure is near the top of a range of forecasts of around 1.9 million to 2.08 million.
Also adding to the bearish mood, exchange data showed an amount of 535,850 tons of sugar delivered after the expiry of the ICE December contract. That is the largest delivery in more than nine years.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 20.30 to 20.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 17, 2016
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 17-11-2016, 08:28 PM
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Default

AUD/NZD signal by Option Banque

From 1.05250
Till 1.05000

Sell Option Digital
Direction Put
Expiry GMT 21:00 17/11/2016
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 17-11-2016, 11:47 PM
Option_Banque Option_Banque is offline
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Default EURUSD Market Outlook by Option Banque

EURUSD Falls Deeper After Yellen’s Testimony- Buy The Dips Or Keep Selling?

EURUSD plunged for the ninth trading session after a series of economic data and remarks of Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen strengthened the case for the a rate hike in December.

Speaking to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, Yellen said an interest-rate hike could come “relatively soon.” Although the Fed Chairwomen did not point out the specific time for the next rate increase, she did little to dispel expectations of a hike as soon as next month. Yellen also said that she will serve out her full term until it expires in February 2018.

Ahead of an appearance before the Joint Economic Committee, Yellen stated that both of Fed’s targets which are labor market approaching full employment and inflation surging towards 2% goal are almost reached.

According to the U.S. government, consumer inflation continued to rise in October, spurred by from more expensive gasoline. The consumer price index jumped at the fastest rate in six months, adding 0.4% last month on a monthly basis. Compared to the same period last year, the CPI has advance 1.6%, marking the biggest increase in two years.

The so-called core CPI, which excludes the cost of food and energy, rose only 0.1% month-on-month. The core rate increased at a 2.1% annual pace, which is close to the Fed’s target for inflation. However, the central bank’s favorite measure known as PCE is a bit lower by comparison.

Contributing to the dollar rally, the Philadelphia Fed reported its manufacturing index remained above the zero level (which indicates improving conditions) for four months in a row. Although the reading eased in November to a reading of 7.6 from 9.7 in October, measures of general activity, new orders, and shipments all pointed to positive conditions.


Fig: EURUSD D1 technical chart

EURUSD keeps plunging towards the lowest level since early December 2015. Long upper shadows in recent candles indicate that buyers jumped in the market to buy at low prices but failed to support for a reversal into an uptrend. Indicator chart show that the market has been falling deeper into the oversold zone. The next support for the pair is at 1.06300.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1.06500 to 1.06300 valid until 21:00 GMT November 17, 2016
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 18-11-2016, 07:36 PM
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Default Daily Report on November 18, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 18, 2016



Most Asian stock markets turned higher on Friday, tracing gains of the U.S. shares overnight. At the close in NYSE, and the NASDAQ Composite index soared 0.62% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.1% higher. The benchmark S&P 500 index added 0.39%, heading closer to its record high on Thursday. While consumer discretionary sectors got a boost from positively economic data and earnings, bank stocks were fueled by prospect of higher interest rates.

The U.S. dollar surged to a 13-1/2-year high after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who testified on the economic outlook before the congressional Joint Economic Committee on Thursday, bolstered the case for raising interest rates next month. Yellen indicated little had changed following the victory of Donald Trump U.S. presidential election earlier this month, and added that she would serve out her full term, which ends in 2018.

Oil prices ticked lower on Friday, but looking set to finish the week higher. The strength in the greenback is contemporarily overshadowing expectations of an OPEC agreement to curb crude production. However, focus will be on the informal meeting of the cartel in Doha this weekend where at least 11 OPEC members will gather in an attempt to finalize the deal reached this September to cut or freeze oil output.

Elsewhere, Mexico's central bank on has raised its key rate 50 basis points (bps) to 5.25 percent, the highest level since May 2009. The Banco de Mexico warned that the outcome of the U.S. election had cast doubt on the relationship between two countries. In his presidential campaign, Trump did threaten to unwind a free trade deal with Mexico and block the money sent home by migrants to pay for a border wall. The victory of Trump on November 8th had sent the Peso to its record low level, which marked the biggest two-day loss of the currency since the historic devaluation in 1995.



Technicals

GBPCHF



Fig: GBPCHF H4 Technical Chart

GBPCHF has broken out of the trading range from 1.24000 to 1.25140. The pair has been powered by the short-term MA20 and is likely to test the 23.6% level at 1.26160. While RSI chart indicates an overwhelmingly bullish force, ADX also shows a wide gap between +DI and –DI lines.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.25400 to 1.26100 valid until 20:00 GMT November 18, 2016



AUDNZD



Fig: AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart

AUDNZD extended its slide to the third consecutive day. The pair is approaching the 23.6% level at 1.04790. The pair has been under downward pressure from two MAs which may help the price to breach the 23.6% handle as this is not a firm handle. The price may find its support at around 1.04500.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.05000 to 1.04500 valid until 20:00 GMT November 18, 2016



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent crude retreated from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and has broken below the support at 46.00. The commodity price action has also crossed over both short-term and long-term MAs, suggesting a reversal into a downtrend. RSI that moved past the average line supports the case for Brent crude to fall deeper.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 45.80 to 45.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 18, 2016



NASDAQ 100



Fig: NASDAQ 100 Index H4 Technical Chart

The U.S. benchmark NASDAQ 100 is on track to complete the double bottom pattern after the index rebounded from the low at 4675.80 (which is also the 23.6% retracement). The price has surpassed the neck level at 4778.36 to reattempt the resistance at 4880.00. The RSI index is pointing upwards, supporting further advances.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 4835.00 to 4880.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 18, 2016
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Old 18-11-2016, 08:33 PM
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Natural Gas Will Be The “Big Winner” Of Energy Sector, IEA Says

Natural gas futures reversed higher on Friday after a decline yesterday which stemmed from the weekly report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
According the government data, supplies of the commodity rose 30 billion cubic feet for the week ended Nov. 11, sending total stocks to 4.047 trillion cubic feet, up 51 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 216 billion cubic feet above the five-year average.

Natural gas futures for December delivery soared to the highest level since November 08th at $2.846 per million British thermal units on Friday set to close the week higher for the first time in 5 weeks. The upbeat moves were partly due to weather forecast on Wednesday showed that cooler weather could begin to appear in Eastern population centers.

Also supporting the rally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that major transformations in the global energy system will bolster demand for renewables and natural gas. The IEA published its World Energy Outlook 2016 report on Friday, stating that considering improvements in energy efficiency over the next 25 years, natural gas will continue to expand its role while the shares of coal and oil fall back.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 2.846 to 2.870 valid until 20:00 November 18, 2016
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