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Old 14-03-2009, 05:36 PM
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Lightbulb Elliottwave Analysis

I am testing Trade station for 3rd party intraday. But a little elliottwave analysis for Nifty index though the image is of mini nifty:

Target remains 2750 to 2800 after an early pullback next week for C wave of
(2)

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Old 15-03-2009, 03:41 PM
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• I use various ancillary methods with my Elliott wave analysis for tactical purposes. One recent addition is combining volume spread analysis with Elliott wave analysis. The chart is near month nifty future. I have done little bit tinkering with my Metastock software so that volume bars could be easily explained. I have also attached an expert advisor to depict NR4 and NR7 bars.
• Volume nomenclature is as follows:
• Red hollow volume bar = volume less than previous two days
• Red solid volume bar = volume less than previous day
• Green hollow volume bar = volume more than the previous day
• Green solid volume bar = volume more than the previous two days

Now the analysis part.
At points 1 and 2 we have selling climax and shakeout respectively. This also finished our wave A (circled) on oct.27,2008. After shakeout market heads up immediately. Aggressive swing traders would have gone long immediately. While others would wait for a test to confirm the signs of strength. We get one immediately. The bar following shake out is narrow spread nr7 bar of truncated session of diwali day. In vsa terms it is a no demand bar. But as it comes just after the signs of climax and shake out it has to be ignored.
3 and 4. As the matket moves up we get a nice up bar with volume less than previous two bars. It is a no demand bar and is confirmed by the next bar4 which is a down bar and also an upthrust. We now have serious signs of weakness. In addition to this we have reached 38.2 fibonacci level. These signs tell me wave (A) might be over. This is confirmed at 5 which is a no demand bar and a nice a nice place to go short again.
6. As we head down, at 6 we have a gap down and a narrow NR7 bar closing off the lows and volume less than previous two bars. This is no supply and a sign of strength. One should think of covering the shorts or at least tightening the stops.
The next bar confirms the story. This is the likely end of wave (B).
7 and 8. These are interesting bars. On a cursory look they looks like upthrust bars.
But they have come after a sign of strength and wave (B) has just ended should we take them as a sign of supply or strength? The answer lies in the bar marked as 9.
9. Basically here the story is same as it was at 6. A bar gapped down and coming off the lows and closing at the upper end. The difference is it has volume more than the previous bar and a narrower spread than the previous bar. In addition it makes a higher high than the bar at6. This is a clear sign of strength and a place to go long.
10 and 11. These bars are test bars in this case high volume tests allowed in future market.
12. we reach resistance area at 12 which is a narrow spread up bar with volume less than previous two bars. This is a place to cover longs and to consider shorts as next bar confirms no demand. Normally, I would label this ND bar as end of wave (C ) as you can see three wave up from point (B).
13. Here, We have no supply followed by a bar closing at the highs with volume more than previous two days. This is reversal. My shorts would be coverd here.
This strength is confirmed at 14 which is test bar and a place to consider longs.
This is NR4 bar with volume less than previous two bars. As previous high is reached, You know the wave you considered a simple abc zig-zag has acquired a
Complex structure by now.
15. As the resistance at 15 proves formidable, what we see here is a two bar reversal. This locked many traders trading without stoploss. This move also marked
The end of our complex wave Y of (C ) .
16,17 and 18. 16 is no supply and a place to tighten the stops if you are short as we reach end of wave A. At 17, we have a no demand bar . and at 18 again no supply.
At these three points just notice the spread of bars . The spread is narrow. 16 is NR4 and 17 NR7. This whole area can be marked as shortening of thrust.
19. As we move up to point 19, the bar at 18 confirms wave (D) is complete.
19 is no demand bar but not a place to short as you know we have entered wave (E)
and wave (E) will be a three wave affair. If you are long, you will stay put here or else stand aside.
20. We head up and get a interesting bar at 20. We see a bar which gapped up and
made a new high than a few previous bars, closing in the middle with volume less than previous two bars. This is a no demand and an up –thrust over two bars.
This bar marks the end of wave (E) and completion of Triangle wave pattern since October 2008. This also provides best shorting place for position traders.
21. if you missed shorting at 20, this bar provides you another place to go short. This NR7 bar is a no demand bar.
22. Here, we get a two bar reversal which is immediately tested by a NR7 bar . Swing
Traders would cover their shorts here. This marks the end of wave (1) and we head
Into corrective wave (2). As usual we will wait for the signs of weakness to enter fresh shorts and for completion of wave (2).

This is how I combine wave analysis with VSA to trade the market. As you see, this analysis is on daily chart without recourse to intraday charts.

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Old 17-03-2009, 06:55 PM
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The BIG picture:

I will post my prime counts and Alternate counts To show the big picture from 2008 high.
1 The Double ZigZag count.



Last edited by Vinay; 17-03-2009 at 07:08 PM.
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Old 17-03-2009, 06:59 PM
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The Tripple ZIGZAG
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Old 17-03-2009, 07:03 PM
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The Impulsive count. Very bearish. This is also EWI prime count. They are very bearish on India as they have analysed a very long term chart of India from 1920 to present.



Last edited by Vinay; 17-03-2009 at 08:48 PM.
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Old 21-03-2009, 02:18 PM
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BIG PICTURE INR/USD

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Old 21-03-2009, 02:20 PM
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BIG PICTURE GOLD NCDEX



Last edited by Vinay; 21-03-2009 at 05:15 PM.
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Old 23-03-2009, 10:41 AM
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If swing trading profit booking can be considered


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Old 23-03-2009, 06:54 PM
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Though the trade was a good one ,the close was too strong. The supposed wave (2) count has retraced more than 78.6%. This has opened other possibilities. more than 100% retracement will violate one of the rules of elliott and wave (2) count will become incorrect. Therefore, I have closed all the longs and shall stand aside for the time being.
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Old 23-03-2009, 08:50 PM
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we in minute third wave and minuette third wave as well ?
above chart generated by elwave software, are the readings correct ?
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