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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 25-03-2009, 12:45 AM
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All of us in our initial searching days of 'Holy Grail' like me many must have dreamt of catching the Top & Bottoms.

All time frame has it's immediate past Top or Bottom how can we say that this Top/Bottom (say even after few bars) is VALID for ALL TF.

Now can anybody guide me how can a relative Top / Bottom (say for few months or weeks) can be assessed.Suppose a Pivotal High is made now ;how can we say that this is going to be a PH in ALL time frame for coming few weeks/months,so that we change to a SELL ON RISE mode,becoz that mode has more chances.

(As we have seen in past years that any body Bought in dips always used to get his/her entry Price back after few weeks or months,thats why world wide they compared a system's ability vis-a-vis Buy & Hold).

How ,at present we all know that Buy in Dips is not the Mantra now.

Last edited by uasish; 25-03-2009 at 12:47 AM.
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Old 25-03-2009, 01:14 AM
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Originally Posted by uasish View Post
All of us in our initial searching days of 'Holy Grail' like me many must have dreamt of catching the Top & Bottoms.

All time frame has it's immediate past Top or Bottom how can we say that this Top/Bottom (say even after few bars) is VALID for ALL TF.

Now can anybody guide me how can a relative Top / Bottom (say for few months or weeks) can be assessed.Suppose a Pivotal High is made now ;how can we say that this is going to be a PH in ALL time frame for coming few weeks/months,so that we change to a SELL ON RISE mode,becoz that mode has more chances.

(As we have seen in past years that any body Bought in dips always used to get his/her entry Price back after few weeks or months,thats why world wide they compared a system's ability vis-a-vis Buy & Hold).

How ,at present we all know that Buy in Dips is not the Mantra now.


I have a book by Tony Plummer - The psychology of Technical Analysis. He elaborates on crowd behavior and tires to prove that there are specific laws that govern crowd behavior. He elaborates on the logarithmic spiral and its expansion to describe the market. market moves in three waves up and three waves down, he says. The interesting thing is three up waves alpha, beta, delta and the corrective down waves x, y, z has unique relationships among themselves. In the up move wave "alpha" is the first small up wave, beta is its corrective, and delta is the thrust - final up wave. The turning point of delta is at 2.618 times beta wave, a fibo projection, but he arrives at the target by logarithmic spiral and its expansion process. There are other scenarios where the target 4.236 of b or 1.618 of beta. On an arbitrary observation many a times these are the usual turning points. But the interesting point is he shows that all traditional reversal patterns and Elliot wave itself is within this logarithmic spiral expansion structure. Also with the wave structure he shows how to identify the correct trend line

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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 25-03-2009, 01:19 AM
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As a Test case :=

Let us consider NALCO ,in the 30 min chart it has given a Sell signal at 12 noon's bar.

Can any body guide me whether if i would have sold at Fut with SL 241.60 (Lot size of 2300) am i going to be able to EAT daily MTM or going to be Stopped out.

Is this going to be the PH for most TF ,look at the Volume man ,i think this test case is going to FAIL,let us see.
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Old 25-03-2009, 02:04 AM
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Originally Posted by edakad View Post
I have a book by Tony Plummer - The psychology of Technical Analysis. He elaborates on crowd behavior and tires to prove that there are specific laws that govern crowd behavior. He elaborates on the logarithmic spiral and its expansion to describe the market. market moves in three waves up and three waves down, he says. The interesting thing is three up waves alpha, beta, delta and the corrective down waves x, y, z has unique relationships among themselves. In the up move wave "alpha" is the first small up wave, beta is its corrective, and delta is the thrust - final up wave. The turning point of delta is at 2.618 times beta wave, a fibo projection, but he arrives at the target by logarithmic spiral and its expansion process. There are other scenarios where the target 4.236 of b or 1.618 of beta. On an arbitrary observation many a times these are the usual turning points. But the interesting point is he shows that all traditional reversal patterns and Elliot wave itself is within this logarithmic spiral expansion structure. Also with the wave structure he shows how to identify the correct trend line

A popular serial in Channel AXN these days "NUMBERS" depicts beautifully , how a mathematician brother of an FBI agent helps track down criminals with his mathematical theories .
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 25-03-2009, 08:12 AM
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A very useful thread. I generally donot debate Methods because I am not very knowledgable. But, would like to say a few things. If you ask me that you use 13 day ema should I switch to Elliott wave ? My answer 'NO'. If you say to me you use Elliott wave you should switch to 13 day ema. My answer 'NO'.
So its all about finding a method,using it, sticking with it managing your money and it is not about elliott v/s ema. Do you find any method which give you 70%/ 30% win loss ratio? I hope you do.
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 25-03-2009, 08:38 AM
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Vinay,

The EW analysis gives you a view of present with a plausable future projection based on past.Seen your thread & you are quite comfortable and also knowledgable regarding EW,plz go ahead but there are few amongst us who do not depend wholly on EW but accept few of it's usefull aspect.
My personal view ; as the premises on which EW is based can not always be depended upon becoz of Sudden change of View with 'Alternate Wave Count' or the count can be Subjective in nature also.Just few days ago SBI was in 5th Down ,now it has completed it's major down impulse and started a new Leg.This kind of dramatic change of direction shakes me and the dependability on EW diminishes.Take the case of ONGC it is about to change it's wave count in the Daily (the Weekly have already changed it's earlier Nov '07 counts),these being Nifty Heavies we get scared.
Plz feel free to express your views ,we are here to share,cant agree with you more that a 13 DEMA follower should not switch to EW but can we take some tools from 13 DEMA or EW.

Asish

Last edited by uasish; 25-03-2009 at 08:41 AM.
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Old 25-03-2009, 08:52 AM
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Read manual of MT Predictor,it stresses that a-b-c set up of EW is most relevant.
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Old 25-03-2009, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by bobby View Post
Read manual of MT Predictor,it stresses that a-b-c set up of EW is most relevant.

It may stress, but to what extent is it true? :
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 25-03-2009, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by uasish View Post
As a Test case :=

Let us consider NALCO ,in the 30 min chart it has given a Sell signal at 12 noon's bar.

Can any body guide me whether if i would have sold at Fut with SL 241.60 (Lot size of 2300) am i going to be able to EAT daily MTM or going to be Stopped out.

Is this going to be the PH for most TF ,look at the Volume man ,i think this test case is going to FAIL,let us see.

Let us see how this fares,today in Live Mkt.
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Old 25-03-2009, 03:00 PM
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NALCO FUT never looked up from Opening and still going Dn ,let us see ,now 228.60 (-) 1.57 % , another 1.30 Hrs Left.
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