indiTraders - Forum for the Active Indian Trader  

Go Back   indiTraders - Forum for the Active Indian Trader > Technical > Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis The technical arena of indiTraders

Reply
 
Bookmark and Share LinkBack (6) Thread Tools Display Modes
  6 links from elsewhere to this Post. Click to view. #1 (permalink)  
Old 18-02-2012, 11:02 PM
niranjanam's Avatar
niranjanam niranjanam is offline
Regulars
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 215
Thanks: 106
Thanked 1,045 Times in 200 Posts
niranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to all
Default Food for Thought



Look at the above picture. You might have seen this pattern many times.

Market is in a bull trend. It pull backs and makes a low at point A. Afterwards it goes up and later returns to the same price level and print a beautiful pin bar.

As a trader what will be your action in this area?

Some possibilities are
1.You will keep a stop loss order just below point A if you are holding long position
2.You will sell just below point A expecting a breakout to the down side
3.You will go long above the pin bar with a stop loss below the candle

Will you buy at the circled area? Who bought there? Who absorbed both stop loss selling and breakout selling? Why?
__________________
Those who know don't talk, and Those who talk don't know.
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to niranjanam For This Useful Post:
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 19-02-2012, 10:53 AM
Shrees's Avatar
Shrees Shrees is offline
indiTraders VIP
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Dehradun
Posts: 5,614
Thanks: 22,429
Thanked 17,001 Times in 4,730 Posts
Shrees has a reputation beyond repute
Shrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond repute
Default

As per VSA its selling climax , IMHO, but have to wait for confirmation and enter long at a test bar with low volume. Patience is hall mark of VSA . At that selling climax SM has telegraphed to discerning traders come join the party.
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Shrees For This Useful Post:
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 19-02-2012, 11:03 AM
ab22 ab22 is offline
indiTraders VIP
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,168
Thanks: 4,647
Thanked 2,509 Times in 936 Posts
ab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud of
Default

Originally Posted by niranjanam View Post


Look at the above picture. You might have seen this pattern many times.

Market is in a bull trend. It pull backs and makes a low at point A. Afterwards it goes up and later returns to the same price level and print a beautiful pin bar.

As a trader what will be your action in this area?

Some possibilities are
1.You will keep a stop loss order just below point A if you are holding long position
2.You will sell just below point A expecting a breakout to the down side
3.You will go long above the pin bar with a stop loss below the candle

Will you buy at the circled area? Who bought there? Who absorbed both stop loss selling and breakout selling? Why?

The pin bar at point B, suggest to me that -

- First the continued selling took the price to the lowest point of this bar. The stop loss selling and breakout selling increased the selling pressure in that price zone .
- But at the same time, this price level has attracted the opposite response from those guys who had a counter view / opinion to this relatively low price. In MP terms, it attracted the "Responsive Buying by Other Time Frame Participants".
- The net buying from those guys absorbed all the selling that was available at that price zone, which resulted in High Volume and Reversal in price direction.


For me it would have been very tough to buy in the circled area. Although my mind would tell me that this is a good opportunity to buy, but I would have been scared to pull the trigger.

Once the price did reverse from that level, and move away quickly to the upside, then I would have started to regret this missed opportunity.

And would have waited for a pullback on low volume "means less selling during the pullback" to get long onto this up move.

This buying level will not be as good as the Circled Area and will not be that good risk / reward situation,, but it will be easier psychologically. And I will feel more comfortable in taking the trade.
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to ab22 For This Useful Post:
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 19-02-2012, 12:06 PM
MurAtt's Avatar
MurAtt MurAtt is offline
indicator
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Kolkata
Posts: 9,764
Thanks: 35,225
Thanked 25,140 Times in 8,800 Posts
MurAtt has disabled reputation
Default

Well ... I bot at halfway to the pinbar wick and held on .. on Friday (5600CE).
Being a bull market - doubt that the market would 'just reverse'. Also what I felt was that it was a weak bull or new long shakeout and FII buying opportunity.

Yes when I did get the opportunity again to buy at almost bottom (though at that time I did not know that it was bottom) I did not buy more becuase of expiry week and only 3 days left else maybe wud've.

__________________
Trade the Moves, not the Target
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to MurAtt For This Useful Post:
  #5 (permalink)  
Old 19-02-2012, 01:57 PM
niranjanam's Avatar
niranjanam niranjanam is offline
Regulars
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 215
Thanks: 106
Thanked 1,045 Times in 200 Posts
niranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to all
Default

Originally Posted by shiree View Post
As per VSA its selling climax , IMHO, but have to wait for confirmation and enter long at a test bar with low volume. Patience is hall mark of VSA . At that selling climax SM has telegraphed to discerning traders come join the party.

Agreed Sir

SM has already taken their position and sent a telegram to DM to buy and help them to take their position to profit

I want to know why SM entered at the marked area in the first place against massive selling ,so that I can also act with SM
__________________
Those who know don't talk, and Those who talk don't know.
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to niranjanam For This Useful Post:
  #6 (permalink)  
Old 19-02-2012, 02:45 PM
niranjanam's Avatar
niranjanam niranjanam is offline
Regulars
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 215
Thanks: 106
Thanked 1,045 Times in 200 Posts
niranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to all
Default

Originally Posted by frankTrader View Post
The pin bar at point B, suggest to me that -

- First the continued selling took the price to the lowest point of this bar. The stop loss selling and breakout selling increased the selling pressure in that price zone .
- But at the same time, this price level has attracted the opposite response from those guys who had a counter view / opinion to this relatively low price. In MP terms, it attracted the "Responsive Buying by Other Time Frame Participants".
- The net buying from those guys absorbed all the selling that was available at that price zone, which resulted in High Volume and Reversal in price direction.


For me it would have been very tough to buy in the circled area. Although my mind would tell me that this is a good opportunity to buy, but I would have been scared to pull the trigger.

Once the price did reverse from that level, and move away quickly to the upside, then I would have started to regret this missed opportunity.

And would have waited for a pullback on low volume "means less selling during the pullback" to get long onto this up move.

This buying level will not be as good as the Circled Area and will not be that good risk / reward situation,, but it will be easier psychologically. And I will feel more comfortable in taking the trade.

Even I would have done the same thing. But in effect our action is actually taking their position to profit.That too with a higher risk on our part.

Some people bought there. What gave them confidence to go against massive selling ? Why they are able to make psychologically tough moves ?
Is the market offering any clues before hand ?

I am a regular visitor of many trading forums and so far I have not seen any system or a trader recommending to buy at the marked area.

What should I learn to graduate as Smart Money ?
__________________
Those who know don't talk, and Those who talk don't know.
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to niranjanam For This Useful Post:
  #7 (permalink)  
Old 19-02-2012, 03:03 PM
niranjanam's Avatar
niranjanam niranjanam is offline
Regulars
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 215
Thanks: 106
Thanked 1,045 Times in 200 Posts
niranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to allniranjanam is a name known to all
Default

Originally Posted by MurAtt View Post
Well ... I bot at halfway to the pinbar wick and held on .. on Friday (5600CE).
Being a bull market - doubt that the market would 'just reverse'. Also what I felt was that it was a weak bull or new long shakeout and FII buying opportunity.

Yes when I did get the opportunity again to buy at almost bottom (though at that time I did not know that it was bottom) I did not buy more becuase of expiry week and only 3 days left else maybe wud've.


I have not seen that chart

You just acted on an intuition or hunch feeling.It is very difficult to believe that some people acting on their hunch feeling can counter massive selling in such situations
There should be some reason behind their confidence. There will be some clue the market can give.
I wonder what it is ?
__________________
Those who know don't talk, and Those who talk don't know.
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to niranjanam For This Useful Post:
  #8 (permalink)  
Old 19-02-2012, 04:28 PM
Shrees's Avatar
Shrees Shrees is offline
indiTraders VIP
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Dehradun
Posts: 5,614
Thanks: 22,429
Thanked 17,001 Times in 4,730 Posts
Shrees has a reputation beyond repute
Shrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond reputeShrees has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Originally Posted by niranjanam View Post
Agreed Sir

SM has already taken their position and sent a telegram to DM to buy and help them to take their position to profit

I want to know why SM entered at the marked area in the first place against massive selling ,so that I can also act with SM

I just want to encourage members interest in VSA.
We dont have to act with the SM. Let them do the hard work for us.
High Volume on Up widespread bar is not liked by market . It will be tested in future .
So we have to enter either on no supply or a successful test after that action.
Curiously best entries are on low volume.

As per Tom Williams's smartest student Sebastian Manby he is not interested in mkt till he sees a High volume.After that only starts his process to find low vol no supply or test bar to enter the trade(for Bullish Trade).
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Shrees For This Useful Post:
  #9 (permalink)  
Old 19-02-2012, 05:20 PM
ab22 ab22 is offline
indiTraders VIP
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,168
Thanks: 4,647
Thanked 2,509 Times in 936 Posts
ab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud ofab22 has much to be proud of
Default

Originally Posted by niranjanam View Post
Some people bought there. What gave them confidence to go against massive selling ?

There could be many factors which could have given them this confidence -

- Their understanding of the market dynamics suggesting that the down move has run its course, there could be buying pressure all ready evident in correlated instruments etc.
- Market Internals suggesting price reversal.
- Importance of this level - this level might have acted as a support in the near past on a number of occasions.
etc.


Originally Posted by niranjanam View Post
Why they are able to make psychologically tough moves ?

- Because they have proper Money Management / Risk Management.
- This is just one more trade for them, which is a high probability trade "based on their system / method". And even if this trade does not works out, they are not going to go broke, because they have their stop losses in place.
- Because they are experienced successful players of this game. They have seen such massive sellings, and the price reversing behavior, many times. They are not scared like the retail newbies in taking such trades.
etc.

Originally Posted by niranjanam View Post
Is the market offering any clues before hand ?

The market definitely offers the clues, but they are not necessarily visible on a single chart.
One might need to pay attention to different charts which shows different "Aspects" of market dynamics, to grasp those clues.
Different charting types / styles and different Indicators etc. shows the different aspects of market behavior, which are very difficult to spot with the naked eyes. "although their are many successful traders who do not take any help from any kind of indicators etc."

Originally Posted by niranjanam View Post
What should I learn to graduate as Smart Money ?

The learning process is never ending. Based on ones current position on the journey to become a successful trader, he / she could learn many different things -

- Not being a blind follower to a sharp move.
- Developing the courage to go against the crowd.
- Trend is not going to last forever. "Trend is a friend, but it depends on when and at what level are you jumping on to it.
- Visible information and opportunity are inversely related. Do not wait for a lot of confirmations, otherwise you might end up missing the bus.
- Learning when and how the Buying / Selling pressure changes at Important Levels, and how it could Accelerate / Halt / Reverse the current price probe.
- Finding such Samples from the past data and trying to look at the various aspects, from different angels.


etc. etc.

Thanks a lot for starting this thread.

PS: Let us be totally open to all kind of views/ counter views " even Elliot Waves based analysis "

We might not agree to what others are seeing / interpreting, but it will be a learning experience for sure.
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to ab22 For This Useful Post:
  #10 (permalink)  
Old 19-02-2012, 07:15 PM
uasish's Avatar
uasish uasish is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Kolkata,India.
Posts: 7,009
Thanks: 8,092
Thanked 14,090 Times in 4,855 Posts
uasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond repute
uasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond reputeuasish has a reputation beyond repute
Default

My personal experience is :=

Mkt even in extreme impulsive down mode WILL ALWAYS reverse back some of its path back,opposite is also true.Maybe after lots of study & practise we can get that Reversal Bar but i cant say how much it will reverse ? OR Is this the ultimate reversal bar and it will change the Trends course from here ?
So my question is basically WHEN & HOW MUCH .
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to uasish For This Useful Post:
Reply

indiTraders - Forum for the Active Indian Trader > Technical > Technical Analysis


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


LinkBacks (?)
LinkBack to this Thread: http://www.inditraders.com/technical-analysis/6199-food-thought.html
Posted By For Type Date
Nifty Nirvana: Liquidity Pools This thread Refback 07-11-2014 10:29 PM
Nifty Nirvana: December 2012 This thread Refback 07-06-2014 12:24 AM
Nifty Nirvana: December 2012 This thread Refback 06-04-2013 11:44 PM
Nifty Nirvana: Liquidity Pools This thread Refback 28-12-2012 06:59 AM
Nifty Nirvana: December 2012 This thread Refback 27-12-2012 11:33 PM
Nifty Nirvana This thread Refback 27-12-2012 09:37 PM


All times are GMT +5.5. The time now is 04:14 AM.


vBulletin Copyright by vBulletin

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.3.2