
30-11-2011, 06:12 AM
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Join Date: Mar 2009
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Van Tharp Now Calls Money Management Position Sizing
 
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Originally Posted by RAIN
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Lets say you started the game risking $1,000. In fact, you do that three times in a row and you lose all three times — a distinct possibility in this game. Now you are down to $7,000 and you think, "I've had three losses in a row, so I'm really due to win now." That's the gambler's fallacy because your chances of winning are still just 60%. Anyway, you decide to bet $3,000 because you are so sure you will win. However, you again lose and now you only have $4,000. Your chances of making money in the game are slim now, because you must make 150% just to break even. Although the chances of four consecutive losses are slim — .0256 — it still is quite likely to occur in a 100 trial game.
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When a man’s ambitions exceed his capabilities, he takes short cuts to fill the gap and often stumbles on his path.
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