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Old 20-04-2013, 02:54 PM
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Lightbulb Tape's analysis

hello friends here in this thread i will post the observations and analysis from my last 7 years of experience in chart reading. in case you have any questions you can post them in a new thread and i can answer them.
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Old 20-04-2013, 03:33 PM
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their is only one way i trade now and that is to ride on continuation. first i find an established trend. by established trend, i mean a trend in up or down direction which is making higher highs or lower lows. one thing which needs to be closely observed here is the pullbacks. you can find many charts with HH OR LL but the main skill is to identify the ones which are only pulling back and not actually reversing. here are few charts that are pulling back. you must observe the number of candles involved here to conclude it as an established trend. you can't call an established trend to one which is done in 10 or 15 candles. the logic for this is that when a big number of candles are involved in forming a trend, the past candles or context looses it's influence on the price no matter if it was up or down or sideways. if you want to learn something out of this, don't just take a glimpse at these charts. observe them with time. green is the up movement, blue is the pullback and then green is continuation. if one can learn to identify the trend correctly, strategy building can be very easy.






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Old 01-03-2014, 10:40 AM
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here is an observation which tells us whats going on in nifty.

this is a weekly chart and as you can see the price has been rallying and pulling back. now before i continue let me explain a simple way to analyse the strength of either side on a particular chart,, if price moves from 0 to 10, it should come back to 0,1 or 2 before it starts to consolidate. if it starts to consolidate near the highs or above the 50% retracement, that means upside has strength. from here you do further analysis on the intensity of strength based on; A. quality of upmove (shape and size of candles) B. quality of pullback. with analysis of these you can determine the relative strength of an upmove or downmove.

otoh if there is no consolidation and the price retraces fully or almost fully, this would mean there was no strength in the initial move and one should not look for continuation. now the quality of upmove and the quality of downmove and the difference between them will determine whether the price will go rangebound or move back towards initial upmove or continue in direction of retraced downmove.

now for the nifty chart, as you can see there are rallies and retracements. the first upmove and last upmove did not have full retracement but all the downmoves were fully retraced without any consolidation. this means that the upside has strength and from here, nifty should move up or stay rangebound here or form reversal patterns before reversing.

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Old 13-10-2014, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Manpreet View Post
here is an observation which tells us whats going on in nifty.

this is a weekly chart and as you can see the price has been rallying and pulling back. now before i continue let me explain a simple way to analyse the strength of either side on a particular chart,, if price moves from 0 to 10, it should come back to 0,1 or 2 before it starts to consolidate. if it starts to consolidate near the highs or above the 50% retracement, that means upside has strength. from here you do further analysis on the intensity of strength based on; A. quality of upmove (shape and size of candles) B. quality of pullback. with analysis of these you can determine the relative strength of an upmove or downmove.

otoh if there is no consolidation and the price retraces fully or almost fully, this would mean there was no strength in the initial move and one should not look for continuation. now the quality of upmove and the quality of downmove and the difference between them will determine whether the price will go rangebound or move back towards initial upmove or continue in direction of retraced downmove.

now for the nifty chart, as you can see there are rallies and retracements. the first upmove and last upmove did not have full retracement but all the downmoves were fully retraced without any consolidation. this means that the upside has strength and from here, nifty should move up or stay rangebound here or form reversal patterns before reversing.


There was no pauses no attempt to reverse. price went straight up 2000 points.

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